New Delhi: The cumulative death toll due to Covid-19 in India could be six times more than the reported figure, says a new study published in Science journal estimating the number around 3.2 million (32 lakh). So far, India has officially reported 483,178 Covid-19 deaths since the pandemic began.
According to the study, nearly 71% or 2.7 million of the estimated deaths occurred between April and June last year (2021), when the Delta variant of COVID-19 was ravaging through the country. More disturbingly, the study states that COVID-19 likely doubled the all-cause mortality during the period. All-cause mortality refers to total deaths recorded in a period due to any reason.
Conducted by researchers from India, Canada, and the US, the study used data from a nationally representative telephonic survey of 140,000 people, reported deaths across 200,000 public hospitals through the government’s Health Management Information System, and the deaths recorded in the Civil Registration System of 10 states that accounted for nearly half the official Covid-19 toll.
"India alone accounts for a huge share of global COVID deaths. WHO should be updating their global numbers taking this into account,” tweeted Dr Novosad.
-
Our study on excess mortality in India is out:
— Paul Novosad (@paulnovosad) January 6, 2022 " class="align-text-top noRightClick twitterSection" data="
Excess deaths close to 3 million.
1. Far higher than official totals.
2. Implies global COVID death count off by >2 million (and more given undercounting elsewhere)
Short 🧵https://t.co/A8fqRgErQQ
">Our study on excess mortality in India is out:
— Paul Novosad (@paulnovosad) January 6, 2022
Excess deaths close to 3 million.
1. Far higher than official totals.
2. Implies global COVID death count off by >2 million (and more given undercounting elsewhere)
Short 🧵https://t.co/A8fqRgErQQOur study on excess mortality in India is out:
— Paul Novosad (@paulnovosad) January 6, 2022
Excess deaths close to 3 million.
1. Far higher than official totals.
2. Implies global COVID death count off by >2 million (and more given undercounting elsewhere)
Short 🧵https://t.co/A8fqRgErQQ
“The conclusion from our paper was that there were seven to eight times more deaths than reported. It is in the same ballpark as other studies all of which suggest vast undercounting and that is important to get an estimate of what the third wave would be like. So far, the third wave in other countries has been bigger than the second. Who gets tested might change over time (thereby changing the number of reported cases), but the number of deaths are consistent,” Dr Prabhat Jha had said when the pre-print study was released.
ALSO READ: Covid more contagious as India's R-naught value higher than 2nd wave peak
Dr Jayprakash Muliyil, the chairperson of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology, said, “Before the pandemic reached India, I calculated the expected mortality based on the age-specific death rate from Europe; we have a younger population so I had adjusted for it. Based on my calculations, India was to report 2.2 million deaths as per the infection dynamics at the time. When the deaths were reported in just thousands, it was embarrassing.”
