New Delhi: On a day when votes for Goa and Uttarakhand Assemblies were locked up in ballot boxes, indications were that the Samajwadi Party-led Opposition alliance retained its lead in the second phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh on Monday. With challenges from Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) petering out at the last hour, 40-member Goa Assembly seems to be heading for a neck to neck contest between the BJP and the Congress. A bigger surprise was thrown up in Uttarakhand where- some months ago - the ruling BJP was seen as fighting a losing battle.
The BJP leadership's decision in installing three different Chief Ministers within a space of one year had somehow given the impression that the saffron party was lacking confidence. Along with major voter concerns such as unemployment and inflation, the Pushkar Singh Dhami government had also not been able to find a solution to the continuing problem of mass migrations from the state. Several "ghost villages" have come up in the remote mountainous areas, as the younger population has been steadily migrating to the cities.
Also read: 10 CMs in 21 years: Uttarakhand goes to polls but will it ever see a stable govt?
At the same time, the state's demographic profile has been changing because of the inward migration of "outsiders" from Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. Further, because of Uttarakhand's "revolving door" Policy - when the incumbent government does not get a second consecutive chance - it was being assumed that the BJP was on a weaker wicket in this election. However, substantial damage control had been done by the saffron party towards the last phases of trial and is understood to have brought itself in the reckoning.
Focus on Uttar Pradesh
As for the high stakes political battle of Uttar Pradesh, heavy voter turnout in the 55 assembly seats of Monday's Phase-2 poll was indicative that the Samajwadi Party (SP) - Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance had retained its lead in the 113 Western UP seats - a region in which the ruling BJP had scored big in the previous 2017 elections by winning 91 seats. In certain pockets in the nine districts of Phase-2, the voting percentage was around 65 to 70 per cent, indicating that the minority Muslim voters had cast their votes strategically by backing the SP, which is considered to have the best chance to displace the BJP from power in Lucknow.
Also read: UP Elections: The messaging of Phase-1 poll
While the voting trends are encouraging for the Opposition alliance in the state's Western flanks, the SP-led alliance is likely to face bigger challenges from the BJP in the remaining five phases of polling, as the saffron party leaders are likely to polarise Hindu votes against the perceived consolidation of the Muslim votes. The trend - suggesting that Muslims are voting strategically - was first witnessed in last year's West Bengal Assembly elections, when Muslims voted en bloc for the TMC, without wasting their votes on other "secular parties". Largely, Muslims have voted in favor of a candidate considered most likely to defeat the BJP in the past. But, since the West Bengal elections, a new trend has been visible: when the Muslims are backing a "secular" party or combination that is most likely to form the government in the state.
Counter polarisation
This situation of counter polarisation can bring gains to the SP-led alliance in the immediate run but is otherwise considered a negative trend in the country's politics. In case the BJP is displaced from power in UP because of the counter polarisation of the Muslims, the party is likely to whip up Hindu sentiments even more strongly in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The SP-led alliance was being expected to perform better in Phase-2 for apparent reasons.
The Muslim voters account for 35 to 45 per cent of the electorate in 33 of the 55 constituencies in the region. In 25 other constituencies, Muslims along with Dalits are estimated to comprise approximately 40 percent of voters. In the previous 2017 elections, the BJP had bagged 38 seats in the region as the Muslim votes got divided among parties including the BSP, Congress, and SP.
Also read: Assembly Election: The Battle for Western Uttar Pradesh
Ground reports suggest that Muslims have substantially backed the SP this time. Other factors have apparently reinforced Akhilesh Yadav's campaign. For one, Keshav Dev Maurya's Mahaan Dal - an alliance partner of the SP-led coalition - has considerable influence in the area. The other big Maurya leader Swami Prasad Maurya had also quit the Yogi Adityanath government sometimes back to join the SP bandwagon.
SP's founding member and influential Muslim leader Azam Khan - who has been in jail for the last two years -also commands a considerable following amongst the minority community voters. Because of his continued incarceration, the Azam Khan factor was said to have generated a sympathy wave in favor of the SP-led alliance. The Narendra Modi government's decision of dropping Santosh Gangwar from the Union council of ministers in the last cabinet reshuffle was also said to have adversely impacted the BJP campaign.
Also read: Battle for UP: Campaign gets aggressive as reality sinks in
Gangwar, a popular Kurmi leader, had been among the prominent BJP MPs to have shot off a letter to chief minister Yogi Adityanath to highlight the shortage of oxygen cylinders during the peak second wave of Covid-19. All this is hardly to say that a one-sided campaign in favor of the SP-led alliance is emerging. The situation is this: the BJP is unlikely to retain its commanding position of 2017 when it had swept Western UP, but the Opposition alliance faces a tough battle too.
In several keenly contested seats in Western UP, the BJP candidates might come up trumps because of the division of so-called "secular" votes. Also, the BJP has more than a capacity to turn things around in its favor in the remaining five phases. As of now, the UP political battle appears evenly poised.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat.)
