A Himalayan hurdle in defence outlay this time

Butter or guns, the classic dilemma before the Indian government as far as defence spending is concerned has never been so challenging, writes ETV Bharat's Sanjib Kr Baruah.

NEW DELHI: To give or not to give … William Shakespeare may be turning in his grave but it is nothing less than Hamlet's famous dilemmatic narrative explained so well in the classic soliloquy for the determiners of India’s defence outlay this time. Perhaps only a few times in the past the mandarins in the national capital’s North Block housing the finance ministry would have been so challenged while framing the defence budget as this year. As the finance minister presents the 2022-23 Union Budget in Parliament on Tuesday, the Budget may not even reveal a wee bit of the travails the mandarins would have encountered.

With the coronavirus pandemic continuing its global rampage, along with the rest of the world, the Indian economy too has taken a battering. Although the green shoots of an economic recovery seem to be there, with the sole exception of China, most dominant economies are still to recover from the deep red. With the main thrust of the governmental effort having diverted towards the health and social sectors, defence needs would indeed have to be deprioritised. But the question is while most other countries may still be able to do it, India may not be able to afford the luxury.

With China being considered the prime adversary in the backdrop of the ongoing crisis that sprang from a border brawl between soldiers of the two militaries to a full-fledged huge military mobilization and deployment along the difficult border straddling the Himalayas, India may have to look at its immediate defence spending keeping the China factor in mind. To face the China threat will require enhanced outlays for three of the four major heads of defence spending—revenue expenditure (for regular expenses, maintenance and spares), capital expenditure (for new acquisition of weaponry, platforms and systems), and miscellaneous (administrative costs, which will also see a spike because of huge spending on logistics).

Only the pensions head would perhaps remain roughly at equal levels. Additionally, India will have to look at the border infrastructure more carefully than ever before because of rapid Chinese constructions and infra build-ups including roads, air bases, and bridges along the border not to speak of the mushrooming of about 628 new and modern ‘Xiaokang’ villages that will be populated by about 62,160 families totaling 2,41,835 people.

The worst part of this predicament is that there is no knowing when issues with China get resolved and how. Till that happens, China will be the big elephant in the room as far as India defence spending is concerned. With Pakistan still indulging in its proxy war and pawing in Kashmir, the threat of a triangulation of the LAC-LoC may soon transform into a deadly reality that will add to the serious concerns of India’s security establishment.

The possibility of terror elements from Afghanistan infiltrating to India via Pakistan adds another dimension as to why defence needs will demand prioritisation. Developments in Central Asia only add to the worrisome burden. This also means India’s dependence on foreign weapons will continue despite the effort to indigenize and be ‘atmanirbhar’ although in recent years there is a distinct move to broad-base the list of sellers besides bringing out ‘negative lists’ and a tweaked Defense Acquisition Procedure.

The choice in front of the nation is more difficult than what is apparent because of the need for spending on weapons, platforms, systems and technologies of the future. Like hypersonics, cyber warfare, Artificial Intelligence, advanced drones and other niche technologies where every major economy is trying to perk up investment in, because, simply put, it is akin to investing in the future that an aspiring power one just cannot do without.

Modernisation of the Indian armed forces is also more challenging because of the fact that 68 percent of India’s war equipment is vintage, 24 percent of current technology and 8 percent in the state-of-art category—much warped that the ‘one-third, one-third, one-third’ prescription of military equipment and assets. In other words, Budget 2022-23 outlay for defence will pave the contours of a broad policy and the tightrope walking it entails whether it be for butter or for guns.