Opinion: Election results hold lessons for every party

While the BJP dominates highlighting its Gujarat win, it is imperative to reiterate that it was defeated by Congress in Himachal Pradesh, where the saffron party lost its vote share by 20 percent compared to what it managed in the 2019 parliamentary elections, writes senior journalist Sanjay Kapoor.

A few months ago an eminent columnist wrote in his piece that if Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to prove his greatness and enduring popularity in Gujarat then he has to beat Madhav Singh Solanki’s phenomenal performance of 149 seats with 55 percent votes in the 1985 elections.

It seems that the PM was cognizant of this looming and challenging record and pulled out all stops to not just equal the record, but to do 7 seats better than what the Congress did so many years ago. To facilitate this win, the PM shifted a semiconductor plant and an Airbus collaboration to build aircraft to Gujarat from other states. For its efforts, the BJP was amply rewarded by the people of the state and won the polls handsomely— 7th time in a row.

The results of the three elections—Gujarat, Himachal, and Delhi MCD polls—hold lessons for all the parties and should compel them to introspect about where they have gone wrong or right. Visibly, nothing has been lost for any party as they are in a position to build on their strengths if they play their cards right. Seemingly, for the first time, the voters are open to change.

For the record— it's honours even. BJP won Gujarat, AAP the prosperous Delhi municipality and the Congress party reclaimed the hill state of Himachal. In the bye-elections to a few parliament and state assembly seats, the opposition parties did well to defeat the invincible BJP in some of the Hindi-speaking states. While the outcome got tongues wagging on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s ambitious Bharat Jodo Yatra and whether it can help revive the fortunes of the grand old party, it will also have other deep and serious implications.

While the BJP is dominating the narrative by highlighting its win in Gujarat and making light of its losses in other states, its imperative to reiterate that it was defeated by Congress in Himachal Pradesh, where it lost vote share by 20 percent compared to what they got in 2019 parliament elections, and also conceded to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) the control of the MCD.

While there is a difference between an election to a state and a municipality, the manner in which it was fought, made it clear that again PM’s popularity was put to test in the capital as well. His large cutouts adorned Delhi streets. Chief Minister of Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma went around campaigning for the BJP lambasting the opposition leaders on national issues, followed by leaders like Defense Minister Rajnath Singh among others.

Local issues of broken roads, soaring pollution, and plummeting quality of life were not even discussed by the national ruling party. AAP promised to remove the garbage dumps that have dotted Delhi’s outskirts, but it again followed the trajectory of PM’s narrative on the imperative for citizens of Delhi to vote for a “double engine” government in the capital also as they rule.

Delhi’s compelling civic problems and staring urban decay were largely forgotten. That’s the reason that the AAP has won the municipal body by a whisker and the BJP largely preserves its strength. The only party to lose badly in MCD polls has been the Congress. The only area from where they have got stirring endorsements is from the beleaguered minorities that do not trust either the BJP or the AAP.

Why did the BJP do so badly in Himachal when the PM had made it amply clear in Solan that he wanted every voter to think that they were voting for him? Himachal Pradesh has been special for the PM. When he was in political exile, he spent some time in the state. After coming to power in 2014, he had showered the state with attention.

He has also micromanaged the state considerably as he is familiar with its social and political topography. What is not discussed is that the state represents a natural fit for the BJP, as it is preponderantly upper caste where minorities are largely nonexistent. Here most of the people tend to agree with the larger policies of the party of Hindutva, however, the party still lost as it failed to execute policies that are at the core of its militarised nationalism.

The BJP did not just fail to increase employment of the youth from the state to the army, its attempts at creating a 'faux' scheme of Agniveer were deeply resented in Himachal. Similarly, the state has an influential section of retired government employees who are keen on old-age pension. The Congress party promised many of these schemes will be implemented if they are brought to power.

Though Priyanka Gandhi campaigned hard in the hill state, her brother Rahul decided to stay away. Here the Aam Aadmi Party, due to Congress, failed to make an impact on the fortunes of the winner. Did they eat the BJP vote? Seems unlikely, as their vote percentage was embarrassingly small. At whose behest did they really contest?

This is a question that has been raging on social media amongst the Congress supporters who charge the AAP for being BJP’s "B team" as they hurt them grievously in Gujarat. In 2017, the Congress came very close to beating the BJP. They won 77 to BJP’s 99, but they were separated by a whisker in more than 20 odd seats and many Congress candidates felt that the BJP used its muscle and administrative power to deny them a victory.

Congress was expected to build on its great performance of 2017 but failed to do so. They kept their campaign low key hoping that their experiment of keeping their big guns and concentrating on local issues would work, but the BJP and PM Modi did everything to ensure that the voters did not see the presence of any other party.

Congress suffered due to the presence of AAP, which took 13 percent vote and managed to emerge as a national party. Congress won only 27 percent votes, but is being written off by many trolls.

In the bye-elections to other states, Congress won a few seats from Rajasthan, Samajwadi bagged the important Mainpuri seat rendered vacant by the death of Mulayam Singh Yadav and that of Khatauli. In Bihar, the BJP managed to beat back the gathbandhan, which is facing adjustment issues after Nitish allied with Tejashwi Yadav’s party.

What is the big learning from these elections—unemployment is an issue that the Government will have to solve soon. Also, the very divisive issue of majoritarian narrative pays dividends to the BJP, but it struggles when the party is confronted by a serious challenge.