The collapse of a bridge over River Machchhu in Morbi on October 30, could not have come at a more inopportune time for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat. The bridge that killed 135 people, is in the industrial town of Morbi, located in the Saurashtra region. Morbi and the neighbouring districts are one of the biggest strongholds of the influential Patel (Patidar) community of Gujarat. And the BJP has been wooing the Patel community very hard for quite some time. The current chief minister Bhupendra Patel being from the same community.
The voting will take place on Thursday, December 1, for the first phase of the polls, to elect 89 of the 182 Members of the 15th Legislative Assembly of Gujarat. Voting for the second phase with 93 seats will be held on Monday, December 5. Whether the anger of the victims’ families and their community in Morbi, anti-incumbency factor against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the impact of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in particular, had an impact or not will come out clear on Thursday, December 8, the day of results.
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But, the first phase will prove to be more crucial and important for BJP, over the second phase. The reason - the largely agrarian Saurashtra region is seen as a Congress stronghold from 2017. A total of 28 out of 48 seats in 2017 elections, were pocketed by Congress in this region. This was a net gain of 13 seats for Congress, over its 2012 tally of 15 seats. Though, through defections and subsequent by-elections, BJP wrested many of these seats back from Congress.
But that said, the disenchantment for BJP, amongst the Patidars (Patels) was visible in 2017. If the trend is not reversed this time around, it will continue making a significant dent into BJP’s plans to emerge stronger in Saurashtra. Though, BJP has been working for long to ensure that it reverses its fortunes in Saurashtra. It has strengthened its own Patel leaders in the region, planned many more initiatives than before. It also weakened the Congress by ensuring that some of its strong MLAs switched parties and joined BJP. Multiple by-elections reduced Congress’ tally over the years, with BJP re-gaining most of the lost seats.
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Yet another and important aspect for Gujarat elections is that, if BJP fails in reversing its fortunes in Saurashtra, it is unlikely that it will be able to compensate for this loss by gaining substantially in the second phase of elections - in the north, central and tribal regions of Gujarat. This means that an overall better performance in Gujarat will depend heavily on how it fares in Saurashtra.
However, there is a strong argument that unless the Congress voters in 2017 in this region ask this question, as to why they should vote for Congress again, making them switch sides might not be easy. But BJP’s hope is that a weaker Congress and a far stronger BJP this time around will change the results in Saurashtra. However a strong and energetic AAP and the Morbi tragedy, might turn out to be the proverbial spanner in the wheel.
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A region that will vote in the first phase alongwith Saurashtra is South Gujarat, with Surat city as its centre. The state BJP president C R Patil is from Surat. And so is the most powerful minister in Gujarat cabinet, Harsh Sanghvi. Interestingly, the politics and issues specifically in Surat and adjoining constituencies now get influenced by the trends in Saurashtra, though geographically both the regions are distant. The reason being the millions strong diamond polishing work force in Surat, which mainly comprises migrants from Saurashtra. They carry the influence from Surat to Saurashtra, when they visit home and on return to Surat, bring the local trends and thoughts back.
The Patidar Anamat Andolan of 2015, which made Hardik Patel known across the country, had a huge support base in Surat amongst the masses of young diamond polishing workers. Since then, Hardik has joined BJP, after a stint in Congress. But in the meantime, during the civic polls of February 2021, AAP gained an impressive 28% vote share and 27 seats in the local municipal body. Which clearly indicates that AAP has a good base in Surat which will easily help it to expand its influence in the South Gujarat region.
