Dehradun: The recent 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Tibet earlier this week has sparked fears about the possibility of a major earthquake in Uttarakhand. However, experts say they are unable to predict the exact time and place of the occurrence.
Geologist Naresh Kumar of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology said the Himalayan region, which includes Uttarakhand, was earthquake-prone due to the regular friction between the Indian and Eurasian plates. “The Indian plate is slowly moving towards the north, causing energy to build up,” he said.
Kumar said that most of the earthquakes in the Himalayan region were a result of this friction between the Indian and Eurasian plates. He said when the rock present underground fails to withstand the pressure of energy, it breaks and releases the energy, causing an earthquake.
“Earthquakes keep occurring after a certain time interval. The higher the magnitude of the earthquake, the more years it is likely to occur. If a greater earthquake, i.e., an earthquake of magnitude 8, occurs at a place, then there is a possibility of a greater earthquake after about 80 to 100 years,” Kumar explained.
He added that the entire Himalayan region falls under seismic zones 4 or 5, which means the risk of earthquakes always remains high. “This is also the reason there is a possibility of an earthquake in the Uttarakhand region as well,” Kumar said.
Scientists have been studying the Himalayan region and the pattern of earthquakes in this region for many years to understand the possibility of future earthquakes. Known as the Indo-Tsangpo Zone, the entire region is about 2,500 kilometres long and 150 kilometres wide.
After the recent earthquake in Tibet on Tuesday (January 7), the National Centre for Seismology (NCS) recorded several tremors in the nearby areas—which the experts said indicate a continuous release of energy.
Although the occurrence of aftershocks releases energy, experts didn’t rule out the possibility of future earthquakes in Uttarakhand. However, they said it was difficult to predict when it would come in the absence of enough data. They urged people to be prepared and take necessary precautions.
Major Earthquakes In The Himalayan Region
| Year | Place | Magnitude |
| 1975 | Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh | 6.8 |
| 1991 | Uttarkashi, Uttarakhand | 6.8 |
| 1999 | Chamoli, Uttarakhand | 6.6 |
| 2005 | Uri, Jammu & Kashmir | 7.6 |
| 2011 | Sikkim | 6.9 |
| 2015 | Nepal | 7.8 |
| 2025 | Tibet | 7.1 |
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