Indo-Canada diplomatic ties are at an ebb. Canadian accusations that India is involved in killings on its soil received support from the Biden administration, indicating US-Canadian collusion. The arrival of Trump in the White House in January 2025, could change the game for both nations, despite Canada being its neighbour as also an alliance partner in NATO and the Cold War relic.
The current Canadian leadership is already uneasy with the victory of Donald Trump. Its Deputy PM, Chrystia Freeland, mentioned, ‘I know there are a lot of Canadians who are feeling unsettled today, and I want to say to all Canadians that I am absolutely confident that Canada will be prosperous, that Canadians will be safe and that our sovereignty or sovereign identity will be secure as we work with this new elected US administration.’
Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the National Democratic Front (NDF) providing political support to Justin Trudeau, to remain in power, was equally cautious. He mentioned that Canadians must unite to protect the country’s interests. He reiterated Freeland’s words by stating that many Canadians are worried. He added that Canada must prepare for the 'impact of potential terrorists', ignoring that Canada already is a haven for Khalistani terrorists. He demanded Trudeau call out Trump’s trade policies.
On the contrary, Canadian foreign minister, Melanie Joly, claimed Donald Trump’s election has boosted Canada’s global influence as nations seek its advice on dealing with him. The reality is that nations are learning from Canada how not to disrupt essential ties.
Trudeau congratulated Donald Trump with hollow words, ‘The friendship between Canada and the US is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.’ What he missed mentioning were tensions which existed between them during Trump’s earlier tenure which continue even today.
Trump has called Trudeau a ‘far-left lunatic’ and ‘two-faced.’ Trudeau was caught on camera mocking Trump at a NATO summit in 2019. When questioned on whether he apologized to Trump on the same, Trudeau remained silent.
Trump, after stories circulating of Trudeau’s mother being associated with Fidel Castro, mentioned in his book, ‘Save America,’ that ‘Trudeau’s mother was somehow associated with Castro.’ He added, ‘A lot of people say that Justin is his son. He says that he isn’t, but how the hell would he know! Castro had good hair, the ‘father’ didn’t, Justin has good hair, and has become a Communist just like Castro.’ Trump also backed the freedom convoy (Canadian Truckers Strike), during COVID, terming Trudeau’s COVID mandates ‘insane.’
On trade, in case Donald Trump imposes his promised 10% tariff on all imports, the Canadian economy would be severely impacted. As per Canadian media, this single act could wipe out USD 7 Billion from its economy by 2028, while increasing inflation as well as cost of living. After all, Canada exports 75% of its manufacturing to the US.
With Trump determined to stem immigration and deport illegals, many illegal immigrants are crossing into Canada adding to its problems. Trump’s official in charge of US border issues, Tom Homan, mentioned, ‘The problem with the northern border (Canada) is a huge national security issue,’ adding, ‘There has to be an understanding from Canada that they can't be a gateway to terrorists coming into the US.’ Simultaneously, Chrystia Freeland mentioned Canada knows how to control its borders while the Border Guards Union mentioned it needs 3,000 more individuals to curb the inflow of illegal immigrants from the US.
With elections due next year, Trudeau will have further setbacks. A rapidly dropping popularity will ensure his oblivion. Most Trump backers, including Elon Musk, have mentioned that Trudeau will have to go. It is likely that Trudeau may be compelled to seek snap elections. Deteriorating ties with India are also being played up, damaging Trudeau’s chances of returning to power. Whoever comes to power in Ottawa would have to toe a different line.
A further impact could be Canada’s support of the Khalistan movement. US Industrialist and founder of the Republican Hindu Coalition, Shalabh Kumar, who remains close to Trump, mentioned in a recent interview, ‘Trump will crack down on Khalistani separatists and even Canadian PM, Justin Trudeau, will listen.’
In response to this comment, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the head of Sikhs for Justice, a pro-Khalistan body, posted a picture of himself attending the ‘Salute to America’ event in 2019 as a special invitee when Trump was President. What he missed mentioning was that India declared Pannun a terrorist only in 2020. India’s attempts to get a Red Corner Notice through Interpol against him in February 2021 were unsuccessful because Interpol believed that Pannun’s actions had a ‘clear political dimension.’ That was the past.
For India, the arrival of Trump is an opportunity to boost Indo-US ties. There are stumbling blocks, mainly in trade and immigration, which need to be managed. Most nominated appointees by Trump are pro-India and desire closer ties as a counter to China.
India is not dependent on the US for military support but is in a position to back its Indo-Pacific strategy. Further, if Trump does impose even a 20% tariff on Indian products, the impact could be under 0.1% in its GDP over the next three years. India is not over-dependent on its exports to the US, unlike Canada. Shalabh Kumar had also mentioned that the US is seeking a Free Trade Agreement with India.
India is not impacted by Trump’s demand for its allies to expend 2% of their GDP on defence as Canada is, being an alliance partner. Further, India seeks US technology and weapons to enhance its military capabilities to challenge China, an act benefiting US defence industries. Modi is well aware of the benefits of aligning with the US.
Further, both leaders are on the same page as far as the Russo-Ukraine conflict is concerned, unlike Canada, which has been funding Ukraine to prolong the conflict. Both Trump and PM Modi have good ties with Putin. There will be close collaboration on resolving the conflict. Initially, India might be the go-between before direct negotiations.
The Pannun assassination plot may witness a closure. It is not worth impacting bilateral ties on backing a terrorist. Canada claiming Indian involvement in the Nijjar killing will no longer be of any consequence to the US, given the growing frostiness in ties between Ottawa and Washington.
Overall, Canada is concerned about the return of Trump, largely due to illogical comments by Trudeau, personal distrust between the two leaders and over-dependence of the Canadian economy on the US. India, on the other hand, will remain an ally and a partner, largely gaining from the return of Trump. Trudeau will be alone in his diplomatic battle with India and hence could be ignored.
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