What played out in Bangladesh over the past few weeks brings back memories of the Arab Spring of 2010-11, where a single incident sparked widespread violence resulting in overthrowing long-term authoritarian rulers across North Africa and the Middle East. The spark in Bangladesh was reservations, reducing employment opportunities, which were subsequently culled.
As in the case of Hong Kong in 2019 and Sri Lanka in 2022, it was students who spearheaded the agitations. In Bangladesh, these protests were subsequently infiltrated by the Jamaat-e-Islami. Post being banned the Jamaat-e-Islami had deep hatred for Sheikh Hasina. This is why residences and monuments relating to the family including the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman were targeted.
As in the Arab Spring, security forces found it difficult to control large violent mobs without excessive bloodshed, resulting in leaders either resigning or taking refuge elsewhere. The Tunisian President fled to Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt resigned and Gaddafi of Libya was killed. In the case of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina was compelled to leave the country. In most cases, rulers resigned or fled after the army refused to fire on protestors, similar to Bangladesh.
In nations where the Arab Spring occurred, basic demands were democracy and human rights. Hasina was almost a dictator, who had subdued her opponents, including jailing them or banning political parties, as also employing security forces to crush protests. She was converting Bangladesh into a one-party country. Recently concluded elections were a farce with the two largest political parties either not contesting or banned. The quotas were just a spark.
Apart from Tunisia, no other country emerged as a stable democracy post the Arab Spring, the worst being Yemen and Libya. How will Bangladesh emerge is to be seen. Will the students hold sway or will political parties brush them off is unknown.
Till when will the interim government run the country is another factor. The last time the Bangladesh army ruled through an interim government for two years before elections were announced.
In all Arab Spring nations, initial targets post the removal of the head of state, were members of the dreaded police and the ruling party. The same is the state in Bangladesh, where members of the Awami League are being systematically hunted down. The police have vanished fearing for their lives. Minorities become easy targets in a lawless state. It always takes time before anarchy is controlled and normalcy restored. A similar scenario is emerging in Bangladesh.
Major causes for uprisings in the Arab Spring were frustration due to corruption in government and lack of economic opportunities. The same happened in Bangladesh. Employment opportunities were reduced by quotas allocated to different groups including dependents of 1971 veterans, while corruption was rampant.
Bangladesh was severely impacted by COVID as also the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prices of essential commodities including oil rose sharply while its exports dropped. It never recovered, adding to discontent amongst the public.
There are conspiracy theories doing rounds of possible involvement of agencies of vested nations stoking the uprising in Bangladesh. Realistically, every power has interests in other countries. The US, China and India have theirs in Bangladesh. While India backed the government, few were pushing for a change. Pakistan too has its own agenda in Bangladesh, especially as India was a favoured neighbour.
Such interference is a global phenomenon. India has been accused of manipulating its interests in certain countries in its neighbourhood. How true are the accusations may never be known, as most operations are clandestine.
Within India too, there are institutions and organisations (political and non-political) funded and influenced by other nations to push their favourable agendas. The same is for Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, how effective were foreign hands in promoting the uprising is to be seen.
Currently, students are at the forefront seeking to restore order. They are reported to be coordinating traffic, protecting minorities and restoring order in cities where the police have vanished. They have also met the army chief and president and forwarded 15 names for the interim government. They seek a secular, democratic Bangladesh not one dominated by religion. They seek development and employment. It was students who desired Mohammad Yunus to head the interim government.
The Bangladesh army, based on the recommendation of students, announced that Mohamad Yunus, 84, a technocrat, will lead the interim government. While India and China continue to monitor the situation, the US welcomed his announcement as he has close links with the Clinton Foundation and other US institutions. After all, he had studied and taught in the country. His appointment would imply better ties with both, India and the US, as trade and funds are essential for development.
There is a theory doing rounds that any future government is bound to be anti-India since the Hasina government had been backed by India. India and Bangladesh are neighbours with a large border exceeding 4000 kms. No nation can ignore the other. The issue of enclaves and maritime boundary have been resolved. There are no pending disputes.
Hence, no matter which government emerges in Bangladesh, they cannot ignore India. Pro and anti-India governments have emerged in Sri Lanka, Maldives as also Nepal over different periods. However, relations with India have never soured as they all realise that cordial relations with India are essential.
In most nations where the army has controlled the state, in some part of its history, it will continue to play a stabilisation role. While the Bangladesh army’s dominance may not be as in Pakistan, it will ensure that its interests are protected. Relations between the Bangladesh army and India have always been warm.
Bangladesh officers attend training with India, conduct exercises with the Indian armed forces as also employ few Indian weapons. Both nations jointly celebrate Vijay Diwas in December each year. This is likely to continue.
India must realise that whatever is happening in Bangladesh is the will of its people. It must stop harping on Sheikh Hasina and move forward with whoever comes to power in Dacca. An era has ended and a new one is commencing. Sudden changes are rare but do happen. Nations adjust and it is business as usual after some period of time. The same would be the state in Indo-Bangla ties.
What remains a major concern for India is that increased uncertainty in Bangladesh could push a new wave of migrants across the border. This could be damaging as demography in many border regions are impacted. The BSF, manning the border must remain on alert.
Another concern is attacks on minorities and their places of worship by rampaging mobs. Securing them is the responsibility of the Bangladesh security apparatus, which currently is headed by their army chief. The Indian government must approach the Bangladesh army through its mission in Dacca for ensuring that.
While there would be global pressure for early restoration of democracy and holding of elections the same would not be rushed. Priority would be to establish order, restore security and then plan ahead. That has been the global norm and would be the same for Bangladesh.
Newly elected leaders would have as their priority development and creation of opportunities for its people, without sinking into debt traps. They rarely carry grudges of the past. India has always been there to support and this is known. India has managed with indifferent governments in its neighbourhood and always bounced back. Hopefully, the same would be the case with Bangladesh in the days ahead. What is needed is patience and deft diplomacy, which is India's forte.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
