OSINT is a method of gathering information from various sources like websites, social media platforms like YouTube, Instagram, Twitter and Facebook; print media, articles, reports, images, videos, dark web etc.
OSINT has emerged a powerful tool in the last few years for its role in covering the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Ukraine, Gaza and recent Houti attacks in Red Sea. The Russia-Ukraine war has led to an explosion of OSINT.
OSINT is becoming increasingly important as the amount of publicly available information continues to grow more and more rapidly due to swift transformation in technology. According to recent data, worldwide: 361.6 billion emails per day; 8.5 billion Google searches and 500 million tweets daily; 3 billion monthly users of Facebook and uploading 350 million photos daily.
In addition, today, OSINT is facilitated by hundreds of most advanced high-resolution satellites by companies like the American Planet Labs, BlackSky, Capella Space, Maxar, Starlink, Satellite Imaging Corporation, Zhuhai Orbita Aerospace Science and Technology, and SCS Space, providing geospatial intelligence by producing a million images of earth.
These images are now available freely or for a price. In December 2022, Ukrainian forces have used the detailed digital maps of Palantir, a US OSINT company, to target Russian forces. Most of the imagery related to the Galwan incident in 2020 was provided commercially by Maxar. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute gave reports and analyses based on satellite imagery relating to the clashes in Galwan in 2022. In April 2023, BlackSky imagery was used by naval technology magazine to cover the Indian navy’s evacuation of refugees from Port Sudan (Operation Kaveri).
OSINT has changed the game of intelligence agencies and military strategists around the globe. The overflow of data has made intelligence agencies across the world struggling to collect, collate and analyse OSINT. Therefore, the US House Subcommittee in 2005 recommended to the US intelligence community to treat OSINT on a par with their own information by developing highly skilled analysts to provide customised OSINT.
In May 2022, the US National Reconnaissance Office informed that it would provide billions of dollars to the companies like BlackSky, Planet and Maxar for the next ten years to deal with of intelligence work related to OSINT. In October 2023, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence called for cyber expert Jason Barrett to develop the intelligence community's national OSINT strategy.
Chinese intelligence agencies are also empowering in OSINT to learn about the capabilities of the adversaries. Indian intelligence agencies, too, have to create platforms where they can develop a team of analysts and experts in collecting and analysing OSINT data. For that purpose, a coordinated OSINT centre has to be established with the collaboration of Defence Image Processing and Analysis Centre (DIPAC) of Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) and ISRO with the association of private companies to focus on data acquisition and the development of tools to improve its approach towards the OSINT.
The use of commercial satellites and mobile phones has changed the entire concept of military secrecy. For instance, Ukrainian forces found strategically key locations of Russian military with the help of commercial satellite imagery, social media posts, smart phone pictures, commercial drone videos etc. The easy accessibility of commercial satellites has unrestricted the military's location and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capability.
By using Google Maps and Google Earth, there is possibility to identify locations of artillery gun positions and logistic bases in the narrow valleys and on hills. Today's smart phones are equipped with geo-locating systems that mark all posts with the user's location. Use of mobile phones by Russian troops showed the way to the Ukrainian attack on the Russian barracks in January 2023.
Moreover, in addition to the uploaded satellite pictures and geo-locating systems of smart phones, the details and statistics of the militaries of many countries is available on online data bases. The online databases of think tanks like Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Pentagon, and companies publishing military journals like Don, Ebscohost, Jane's, ProQuest are providing information about military capabilities and military expenditures of many countries.
OSINT requires extensive processing and analysis because such information merely becomes intelligence once it is collected, analysed and circulated promptly. Accordingly, there may be a need of continuous tracking of websites, images and pictures which demand specific and particular softwares. Companies like Orbital Insight, Slack, Visible Technologies, VFRAME, Trackur, Zignal Labs, Dezzai, Neticle Labs, and Citibeats, have such apparent OSINT appliances.
Visible Technologies is capable of tracking posts and video clips in sites like Amazon and Facebook. VFRAME has computer vision technologies for analysing conflict zone media using neural network (A method in artificial intelligence that instructs computers to process data in a way that is inspired by the human brain) powered by synthetic data (information that is artificially manufactured rather than generated by real world events). Additionally companies like Palantir, CrowdStrike, NTS, Talos, Cybersixgill, and Recorded Future are coping with cyber security.
The evidence derived from OSINT has much significance and credibility now. The Belling cat’s report helped the Russian link to the MH17 Ukraine plane crash and poisoning of Sergei Skirpal. The US company Dow Inc tracked signs of Russia’s invasion plans through the use of publicly available sources. The International Criminal Court (ICC) itself has been endorsing the evidence based on OSINT for the prosecution of war criminals.
However, artificial intelligence (AI) generated false satellite imagery may misguide and twist actual facts in conflicts and disputes. During the Hamas’ attack on 7 October, social media has been swamped with visuals of civilian casualties in Israel and Gaza. Meanwhile, false imagery also flooded either from past conflicts or created with AI tools. Therefore, it is important to confirm and review audiovisual evidence when reporting on war or terror events to make sure such conclusions. In view of that BBC, the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Guardian have strengthened their investigation teams with audiovisual forensic experts.
With adversaries like Pakistan and China targeting not only the Indian security, but also attempting to extract data and technology from economic and defence sectors, Indian intelligence outfits must treat OSINT even with their own information. India has to create a platform to develop teams of researchers and analysts in startups and companies focusing on software, data collection, analysis and dissemination. In fact, this transnational threat requires a coordinated international retort and reaction.
