In a democracy, strong opposition is crucial for good governance. It seems diminishing by the day. The latest example is the result of the Maharashtra Assembly election, where the opposition's survival is in peril. It is the treasury bench that will call shots in the Maharashtra legislature leaving the opposition voices fading out in the well of the house.
Maharashtra assembly election results have thrown great surprises at many, particularly those who expected NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) to perform a little better so they could mark some significant numbers and have a say in the legislature.
In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly polls, an undivided NCP won 54 seats while an undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats. An undivided Shiv Sena had contested the polls along with the BJP, while an undivided NCP had won the polls along with the Congress.
In the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly polls, as per the data of the Election Commission, the Shiv Sena has so far won 44 seats and was leading on 13 seats, while the NCP has so far won 35 seats and was leading on six seats. In contrast, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (SP) have fared poorly. The NCP (SP) won 8 seats so far and was leading on two others, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) won 17 seats and was leading on three seats.
Ajit Pawar’s NCP, the breakaway of Sharad Pawar's NCP went far ahead leaving behind senior Pawar dismayed and broken when he is at the fag end of his political career. The very existence of his political legacy is in jeopardy. Because of his affection for his daughter Supriya Sule, senior Pawar, had to pay a hefty price—the disintegration of the National Congress Party led by him.
Similarly, Uddhav Thackeray of Shiv Sena could have kept Eknath Shinde content by giving him a respectable position rather than endangering the existence of Shiv Sena, which he claims is his. He could have also brokered a deal with his cousin Raj Thackeray. Although negotiators tried to mediate between Uddhav and Raj, biology played a spoilsport and turned them against each other. Now the popular mandate that people granted to Eknath Shinde made the indecisive fight readily decided as the claim over Balasaheb Thackeray's Shiv Sena by his son Uddhav remained with Shinde.
Senior Pawar, Uddhav, and Congress leaders had some hope after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but their complacency — shown by their internal strife — left the field open for the BJP by inciting voter discontent.
The outcomes have put not only Uddhav or Sharad in jeopardy, but also NCP led by Ajit and Shiv Sena led by Eknath, whose numbers are too small to make their voices heard in the upcoming days and weeks when they need to negotiate with the BJP during the government formation.
The definition of inheritance seems to be changing after election results and people have their own way of evaluating inheritance. Maharashtra is a classic example where people choose Eknath Shinde over Uddhav by giving Mahayuti a mandate to govern. Same way Ajit Pawar over Sharad Pawar. These results have changed the political dynamics of Maharashtra where regional parties would dominate the state assembly.
The reverberation of local issues during the election campaigns would be decisive for parties and candidates. Maratha's pride would mark the triumph. This time it is the Hindu nationalism that won over the Maratha symbolism. Maharashtra has always won on issues related to Marathas. Sharad Pawar became the youngest chief minister of Maharashtra 46 years ago only after playing before the voters the local issues. He then, broke away from Congress, to found NCP.
Similarly, the rise of Shiv Sena in the state was because of Marathi pride and the issues surrounding it. National parties, in the past, would take a regional route to make inroads in the Maharashtra assembly. This time, it was brazen, and the emboldened slogans were obviously a result of regional parties splitting.
Regional parties had some say until the election results were declared. Still, they will have to remain subservient, as was evident from the body language of the BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis when he addressed party workers right after the results. Thanking the central government for standing by them he said 'It was a battle of ideologies.' Reposing faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, he reiterated that the 'Modi factor can’t be ignored.'
People have voted for vikas (development) and Ladli Behna Yojna is what most of the politicians particularly BJP members said. Except for the Western part of Maharashtra, all other regions of the state showed overwhelming support for BJP and its allies as they call it Mahayuti. It was a clean sweep and a thumping majority for Mahayti.
The opposition will have to find a face to represent in the Assembly after former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, Balasaheb Thorat who remained MLA eight times, and Yashomati Thakur, were defeated. None of the opposition parties touched the mark of 29 seats, the minimum required for the LoP position per the legislation's rules.
They will have to have an agenda that people can relate to if they are to survive for five years and aim to make a comeback. Before doing this, they must find a solid replacement for the current leadership who will be retiring from politics in the coming years. Only when the successor is as heavy as the incumbent will there be a chance of survival.
