Israel and Hamas have accepted a ceasefire deal which kicked in on Sunday. The deal, pushed through detailed negotiations spread over months, comes into effect just as Biden finishes his tenure as US President. Both, Biden and Trump, have taken credit for the ceasefire, with Trump claiming ‘This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November. We have achieved so much without even being in the White House.’ Biden mentioned, ‘we're all speaking with the same voice, because that's what American presidents do.’
Gazans celebrated the end of hostilities, with its senior leader and chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, mentioning, ‘Our people have thwarted the declared and hidden goals of the occupation. Today we prove that the occupation will never defeat our people and their resistance.’ Meanwhile, reports mention that Hamas has re-built its strength to what it was before the invasion with fresh recruitments, conveying that its ideology and popularity remains intact, despite devastation and losses.
The same Gazans who screamed at the destruction of their homes and hospitals, claimed over forty thousand were killed, called the Israeli invasion a genocide, displayed pictures of starving and dying children now consider the ceasefire as a victory. An irony or is it a case of brainwashing. Hamas remains popular in Gaza despite causing unimaginable suffering to its populace. It turned Gazans into a community struggling to find food and medicine, running from one camp to another in a war which it initiated without any strategic calculations.
It lost almost its entire hierarchy to Israeli strikes. However, there is no dearth of leaders within terrorist organizations to replace those being eliminated. While the common Israeli celebrated the agreement, family members eagerly awaiting the return of their captured loved ones, there was disquiet within the government. Even families of soldiers enhanced pressure on the government to accept the ceasefire. Israel has lost over 400 soldiers in the fight so far, with many more injured.
Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and two other ministers from the religious Jewish Power party have resigned. This does not bring down the current coalition nor impact the ceasefire but destabilizes the coalition. There are reports that Netanyahu refused a cessation of hostilities agreement for his political gains as it could signal the end of his coalition. Inputs mention that Netanyahu intends to renew the conflict after the first phase of the ceasefire, which will see the return of 33 hostages.
The ceasefire also signals that Israel has not been able to defeat the ideology of Hamas. It may have broken Hamas’s military structure but the group has now converted itself into an insurgent force, still attacking the Israeli army. Israel lost 16 soldiers in insurgent attacks in the past week alone. This implies that removing Hamas from Gaza will not be easy. It exists and remains a viable force.
Iran backed the resilience of Gazans. Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted, ‘Everyone will realize it was the patience of the people and steadfastness of Palestinian Resistance and Resistance Front that forced the Zionist regime to retreat.’ Iran is now almost alone. Syrian support has ended, Hezbollah has been weakened and has already inked a deal with Israel, the Houthi’s are being hit hard and Hamas cannot be easily re-supplied. Iran’s air defences have been rendered useless by Israeli airstrikes, making it vulnerable to Israeli and US air attacks. It is aware that the main intent of Israel and the US is a regime change.
Disagreements which could dominate future discussions involve governance of Gaza and its reconstruction. While Israel would prefer Egypt and Qatar as also the UN, the Palestinian Authority is staking its claims to govern Gaza. Tel Aviv does not trust the Palestinian Authority and would be unwilling to provide it any role. Israel will have to use every trick in the book to prevent the Hamas from re-emerging in Gaza as the Taliban did in Afghanistan soon after the US pulled out. This may not be easy.
The agreement paves the way for the commencement of the IMEC (India Middle East Economic Corridor). It had been stalled by the war in the Middle East. The corridor is an alternative to the Chinese BRI (Belt Road Initiative). Thus far it had remained only on paper. Biden’s announcement on the IMEC indicates the importance the US provides to the project.
There is no doubt that terms of the ceasefire agreement were pushed down on both sides by the US and its negotiators. The US convinced Netanyahu to accept the deal while Qatar and Egypt applied pressure on Hamas. Despite internal disagreements in Israel, it was evident that the deal would be accepted. It was a face-saving for Biden and a victory for Trump. Will it continue to hold once the US presidency undergoes a change and Trump settles in is a question.
For Israel, the re-emergence of Hamas is unacceptable but is a fact. Its ideology and support amongst the Gazans remain as strong as before. Keeping it out of Gaza politics is difficult. One thing is certain, Israel will maintain peace till this group of 33 hostages are released. It cannot afford to renege on the deal till then.
Israel is also no longer the same. Hamas’s tunnels have largely been destroyed nor can it be provided with weapons from Iran as earlier. Its actions will be closely monitored. The fear of a similar attack as 07 Oct will continue to dominate Israeli mindset and hence air strikes can be expected on the slightest pretext. The trust between Palestinians and Israeli’s is at an ebb. It may not return to normal for a long time.
Most powerful Arab states either stayed neutral or silently backed Israel throughout the conflict. They did criticize Israel but threats were never followed up. None, including neighbour Egypt, were willing to accept Palestinian refugees. Gazans had little global support. Whatever came was from non-entities like Pakistan and Bangladesh or Islamic nations from Africa.
This indicates that countries in the region prefer peace and cooperation with Israel, rather than a confrontation. While they would contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza, they would never desire the re-emergence of Hamas. Hamas as an organization is no longer acceptable or respected. This is the changing face of West Asia.
At the end of the day, this is a temporary ceasefire, not the cessation of hostilities. It can be broken at will by either side.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of ETV Bharat)
