Hyderabad: What appeared to be possible a year ago has now changed into near-impossible for the country's opposition parties. Many do not believe their own eyes as they see the opposition alliance, which was famously christened INDIA, losing its steam at the same speed that was there when it was formed. The 2024 Lok Sabha election is just a few months away but nothing seems to be going the way of INDIA.
The biggest psychological blow and tactical loss to the opposition bloc is the exit of Bihar Chief Minister and JDU chief Nitish Kumar, who, ironically, was the one who led the opposition rally together against the BJP.
For all practical purposes, the Congress is undoubtedly the major player in INDIA bloc, yet it did little to convince and retain Nitish, despite knowing that he had earlier worked with the BJP and that there were chances of his shifting loyalties. Adding fuel to the fire, Bengal Chief Minister and TMC Supremo Mamata Banerjee has practically quit the alliance. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has also dropped indications of his disappointment with the grand old party.
As of today, questions are being raised in political quarters across the country whether the anti-BJP forces have already lost the game before it begins. The current popular discourse is centred on certain key factors - the NDA seems to be charging ahead with the Modi factor to win 2024 polls. Narendra Modi's master strokes ahead of the elections include Ayodhya Ram Mandir and Bharat Ratna to BJP stalwart LK Advani, moves that won both sides of the Hindutva brigade and also the rising nationalist pride. What has INDIA bloc got and what has Congress got to counter this?
Congress was emboldened after the victories in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections but hardly learnt any lessons from the disastrous defeats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Its victory in Telangana by a smaller margin over the BRS offered only a little respite as KCR's party remained stronger in Hyderabad while the BJP gained more ground.
In the melee, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra created a resurgent mood among the opposition parties a year ago but his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra had only made enemies out of allies. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee made no secret of her objections and announced that her party would go solo in the Lok Sabha elections at a time when Congress was trying to project Nyay Yatra as the main theme of the 2024 battle.
With this, the INDIA bloc shows more signs of falling apart with its important leaders like Mamata and Akhilesh attacking the Congress more than the BJP despite the LS polls being hardly four months away. Open disunity, lack of a PM face and 'big brother' mindset of the Congress are among the factors that spoil the chances of INDIA bloc turning into a formidable force against the NDA by now.
When everything was going wrong, the Congress, in a typical overconfident style, had kept saying that both Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee would remain a part of the alliance. The Congress could not have become complacent thinking that such important leaders would not reverse their stands considering their tough stance against the Modi-led BJP.
Akhilesh Yadav looked for seat sharing with Congress in Madhya Pradesh elections to gain some foothold in the areas with more Yadav vote bank. But it did not materialise with the BJP yet again winning the MP Assembly election. Now, joining the chorus with Mamata apparently on the Nyay Yatra, Akhilesh has targeted the Congress, saying 'many big events are organised, but we are not invited."
Also, the SP announced its first list of 16 candidates for the LS elections without waiting for any talks on seat sharing with the Congress and other constituents of INDIA bloc. Seat sharing among the anti-BJP parties appears to be a remote possibility now. If it happens, it may take place in some select pockets where they feel it is a dire necessity.
Meanwhile, AAP national convenor and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has also dropped indications of disagreement with the Congress, saying that his party would contest the Haryana Assembly elections alone though it will have a truck with allies for the LS polls.
The BJP's rise in the past decade is not solely on its strength but must be credited to the gradual division of the non-saffron vote bank across the country. In 2019, the BJP secured a 37.3% vote share across the country but could get a resounding victory for a second consecutive term. In the key Hindi heartland states, the Congress is failing to show its core ability to bounce back.
After Mallikarjun Kharge took over the reins as the Congress national president, there were a few initial victories - Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. There were signs that the senior leader would steer the grand old party into a winning streak in the run-up to the LS poll. But, the situation has come to such a pass that Nitish, who was in the final days of quitting INDIA bloc, even refused to speak to the Congress chief.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are author's personal.
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