New Delhi: When Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, also known as ‘Prachanda’, ditched the Nepali Congress as his coalition government partner on Monday and formed a new dispensation in partnership with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) of former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, very few people in Kathmandu would have raised their eyebrows.
After all, this is not the first time that Prachanda has changed his allies. In fact, since 2015, his Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-Maoist Centre) has changed allies as many as six times. This is a feat that puts Prachanda at par with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who has earned the sobriquet ‘Paltu Ram’ for frequently changing his coalition government partners.
Currently serving his third term as the Prime Minister of Nepal, Prachanda previously held the prime ministerial post from 2008 to 2009 as the first prime minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, and again from 2016 to 2017. He was elected as prime minister for the third time in 2022, following that year’s elections in the Himalayan nation.
Prachanda joined Left-wing political parties after seeing severe poverty in his youth. In 1981, he joined the Communist Party of Nepal (Fourth Convention), and later became general secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (Mashal) in 1989. This party later became the CPN-Maoist or CPN-Maoist Centre asit is known now.
Prachanda was the leader of the CPN-Maoist during the country’s civil war and subsequent peace process and the formation of the first Nepalese constituent assembly. In the 2008 elections, the CPN-Maoist emerged as the largest party, and Prachanda became Prime Minister in August of that year. He resigned from the post on May 4, 2009, after his attempt to sack the then army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal, was opposed by then President Ram Baran Yadav.
Prachanda was sworn in as prime minister for the second time in 2016, as per an agreement to form a rotational government by the Nepali Congress and CPN-Maoist Centre. He resigned from the post of prime minister on May 24, 2017. Following the 2022 Nepalese general election, with an alliance with political parties including CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Prachanda was sworn in as Prime Minister once again in 2022.
This is the third time that a Left alliance is in power in Nepal after the abolition of monarchy in 2008. Prachanda’s CPN-Maoist Centre holds the position of the third-largest party with 30 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives. The Nepali Congress, with 89 members, claims the top spot, followed by the CPN-UML with 77 seats. The RSP, comprising 21 members, secures the fourth position in terms of strength. Notably, Oli, the leader of the CPN-UML, is one of Prachanda’s most vocal critics.
According to reports, the CPN-Maoist and the CPN-UML have struck an agreement, including sharing the prime minister’s post by Prachanda and Oli.
“As far as I know, there has been a gentleman’s agreement that the Maoist Centre and the UML will each lead the government for two years,” the Kathmandu Post quoted a leader close to Oli as saying. “Our party will lead the election government.”
Around four years are left for the next general elections to be held in Nepal. But the fact of the matter is that the Himalayan nation has seen 13 governments come to power in 16 years since monarchy was abolished. And in half of that many years, Prachanda’s CPN-Maoist Centre has switched allies as many as six times.
The rivalry and power-sharing disputes between Oli and Prachanda have been a central dynamic, with both leaders heading different coalitions at times.
The CPN-UML, under the leadership of Oli, formed a coalition aligning with the Maoist Centre, Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal, and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik. Oli resigned in July 2016 after losing CPN-Maoist Centre’s support. Prachanda attributed Oli’s departure to his failure in addressing constitutional disputes and issues related to transitional justice stemming from the Maoist insurgency.
In August of the same year, Prachanda assumed leadership with the backing of the Nepali Congress and some smaller parties. The year 2017 saw parliamentary elections in Nepal, where the CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre alliance secured a significant majority, resulting in Oli’s re-election as prime minister. An agreement stipulated that Oli and Prachanda would alternate the prime ministerial tenure, but when the time came, Oli declined to hand over power.
This refusal prompted Oli to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for fresh elections, leading to a political crisis. However, the country’s Supreme Court intervened in July 2021, reinstating the House of Representatives and directing then President Bidya Devi Bhandari to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress as the prime minister.
In November 2022, another election took place, with Deuba's Nepali Congress emerging as the largest party but falling short of a majority. Consequently, Deuba formed a coalition with Prachanda’s CPN-Maoist and others.
In a surprising development in December 2022, Prachanda unexpectedly left the ruling alliance and formed a coalition with Oli’s party based on an understanding to alternate leadership. This alliance, however, was short-lived, as Oli and the CPN-UML withdrew their support in February 2023 when Prachanda backed the Opposition coalition’s candidate in the presidential elections.
Facing this situation, Prachanda sought a vote of confidence in March 2023, successfully navigating it with the support of the Nepali Congress and other parties such as Rastriya Swatantra Party, CPN-Unified Socialist, Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and Janamat Party.
There are many speculations about what caused the break-up of the CPN-Maoist Centre-Nepali Congress and why Prachanda suddenly changed course, apparently betraying his old partners even though they fought the local, provincial and federal elections together. The reasons cited include growing rift between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-Maoist Centre, especially after Prachanda’s candidate Champa Karki lost the elections to the National Assembly from Koshi Province, and Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba’s reluctance to replace finance minister Prakash Sharan Mahat, who had strained relations with Prachanda.
Meanwhile, interestingly, Monday’s ETV Bharat report about a Chinese hand behind uniting the Left parties of Nepal seems to be vindicated.
Addressing a routine press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday, Mao Ning, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that China has observed Nepal’s recent establishment of a new ruling coalition and the restructuring of its cabinet. She conveyed a “sincere hope for the collaboration and unity of all parties in Nepal to facilitate the seamless establishment of a new government, aiming for political stability, economic development, and enhanced quality of life for the people”.
India is yet to comment on the formation of a new Left-dominated coalition government in Nepal.
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