New Delhi: A ceasefire agreement facilitated by the US has started to end 13 months of fighting between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah. The US and France announced that this deal will stop the violence in Lebanon and protect Israel from Hezbollah and other terrorist groups based in Lebanon.
This ceasefire follows over a year of conflict and will not directly impact Israel's current war in Gaza. The Israeli military stated that this truce will allow them to concentrate on Gaza and increase their efforts against Hamas.
However, the question is how long will it last? What does it mean for India as the country has its stakes in the Middle East?
Former Indian diplomat Rajeev Dogra, in an exclusive conversation with ETV, said, "'It is encouraging to observe that a ceasefire has been agreed upon between Hezbollah and Israel for a trial period. This development is a positive step, and there is hope for its extension without any breaches. If a ceasefire can be established with Hezbollah, it could serve as a promising starting point."
"Additionally, there is hope for a similar resolution regarding the release of hostages held by Hamas and the corresponding release of prisoners by Israel. The establishment of peace in Israel, as well as between Israel and its neighbouring countries in the Middle East, will consistently be regarded as positive news for India".
Dogra further explained that the conflict involving Israel, Hamas, Lebanon, and to some extent, Iran has raised significant concerns globally, including for India.
"India maintains historical ties with the Arab world while also having robust relations with Israel. Over time, trade connections, which were primarily centred around the diamond industry, have expanded into other sectors, notably defence. Recently, an Indian company has shown interest in the Haifa port in Israel," said the former Indian diplomat.
"From various perspectives, these strong ties are noteworthy, particularly the connection between Israeli youth and India. Many young Israelis, after completing their military service, choose to visit India to relax and rejuvenate following their intense experiences in the Army. This multifaceted relationship explains India's apprehension regarding the prolonged conflict that has persisted for over a year, which began tragically on October 7th. On that day, numerous Israeli youths, both male and female, faced horrific acts of violence, including murder, abduction, and assault", he added.
"In the aftermath, the international community, especially the youth, has condemned the retaliatory brutality exhibited by Israel. However, it is encouraging to observe that a ceasefire has been agreed upon between Hezbollah and Israel for a trial period. This development is a positive step, and there is hope for its extension without any breaches", he added.
The ceasefire is seen by many analysts as a positive development for India, not only due to its trade and business interests in the Middle East, which could be jeopardised by an escalation of conflict but also because it allows for the revival of a significant project that had been postponed because of the unrest.
One of the most impactful announcements from last year's G20 Summit in Delhi was the pledge to establish a rail-and-port network linking India to the Middle East and further connecting the region to Europe and the United States.
This initiative is referred to as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). While leaders from the involved nations did not explicitly mention China, it serves as a clear alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to integrate the globe with China through extensive shipping, rail, and road infrastructures.
Rajiv Dogra stated, "There is a plan to connect India through the Middle East to Israel and then to Western Europe. However, this plan is still in the works and may take time to develop. Conflicts along the route could slow down progress. We need to observe how the situation in the Middle East unfolds before moving forward with this plan".
He explained that in the meantime, Indian traders already have strong connections with the countries along this route. "Our trade relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are solid, especially regarding goods and oil supplies from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to India. These connections will only grow if the new route becomes available", said Dogra.
"Regarding China and its Belt and Road Initiative, that is their concern. India will simply watch how it unfolds without getting involved. Overall, the ceasefire is viewed positively for India. Peace anywhere is beneficial for everyone, and there is no doubt about it", he pointed out.
He further said that during the conflict, oil prices were unstable, rising sharply and then dropping slightly. "Such a situation is not favourable, as uncertainty is bad for exporters since the market is unpredictable. This unpredictability means that the demand for their products is also uncertain. Therefore, it is better for the region to be peaceful instead of being tense or in conflict".
India on Wednesday welcomed the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The Ministry of External Affairs in a statement said," We have always called for de-escalation, restraint and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy. We hope these developments will lead to peace and stability in the wider region".
Why IMEEC is so important for India?
A few weeks following the Hamas assault on Israel in October last year, US President Joe Biden expressed his belief that one of the motivations behind Hamas's terrorist actions was the recent unveiling of the ambitious IMEEC project during the G-20 Summit in New Delhi, which aims to connect the entire region. During a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Biden shared that his perspective is rooted in instinct rather than concrete evidence.
However, the importance of the IMEEC can't be ignored. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a significant initiative for India due to its potential to transform trade, connectivity, and geopolitical dynamics in the region. The IMEC, a proposed infrastructure and trade corridor linking India to the Middle East and Europe, holds great importance for India.
It is expected to significantly reduce the time and cost for goods to travel between India, the Middle East, and Europe, boosting India's exports and imports. This will help increase India's participation in global trade, especially in sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and technology.
