Modi 3.0 is underway with all eyes on whether it would function the old way or adopt a new modus operandi, given the fact that it is now a coalition government in the true sense of the term.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls threw up surprising results as the 'invincible' Modi wave shed a bit of sheen after BJP fell 32 short of the majority and lost 63 seats from its 2019 tally, winning only 240 this time.
Senior Journalist N Ram spoke to ETV Bharat on how different the upcoming government led-by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be.
Watch the entire interview here:
Here are the excerpts from it.
ETB: Modi got his third consecutive term as Prime Minister of India. What changes can we witness now? Do you think the governance will be the same as previous terms?
N Ram: No. It will be very different from the last 10 years. In fact, this outcome is a game changer. Modi, in his first term, came on a development oriented program. They got 32% of the vote and they became the single largest party. Then, in 2019, the party improved upon that position to 37% vote share and bagged 303 seats, and I think the whole agenda changed. CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) which was introduced towards the end of the first term but came into force later in the second term, became more aggressive in the second term. The communal platform became more strengthened and aggressive. Then you had the NRC (National Register of Citizens) exercise. It created a lot of concern. And then Kashmir and Article 370 and the virtual war against States and State governments ruled by INDIA bloc parties.
In opposition-ruled states, Governors were used to thwart legislative initiatives, and they behaved in an extremely hostile manner, unleashing scores of agencies against even leading politicians.
States ruled by those who are opposing the BJP can breathe now, because of two major forces. The first is Mr Chandrababu Naidu. And the second is Nitish Kumar. Both of them have been very critical of the BJP in the past, particularly Mr Naidu. There is demand for special status for both Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. They speak strongly in favour of state or state rights. So it will be difficult for the BJP to run the government the way they used to, particularly Mr Modi and Amit Shah.… They cannot function in the old way, I think.
He (Modi) is dependent on these two so-called kingmakers. Especially Mr Chandrababu Naidu, who is a strong and experienced leader. His party, TDP has delivered on its own strength. Nitish Kumar’s party has also got seats aligning with the BJP and some others. Inside the government, there will be bargaining. Because these ministers (those belonging to TDP and JDU) will not be dummies any more. They will assert themselves at least.
There is also Janata Dal Secular. In Karnataka, they got only two seats. But they got about 5.6% of the vote. And if you look at them, they tip the balance in favour of the BJP in Karnataka. Their bargaining power is not the same as the other two, but they can't be ignored either.
On media’s coverage and exit polls
Exit polls were far from reality. A lot to the credit of our journalists. Many honest reporters came up with the facts on the ground. And I know that for example in the Hindu. Our editor Suresh Nampath gets reports from the ground. And it was very clear, even after the exit polls came out, that it should be under 250 for BJP alone. I don't know how the exit polls could have got it so wrong. The one with the greatest credibility, Mr Pradeep Gupta (Axis My India CEO) who cried on live television. They made him cry because they threw him under the bus. And that is not a good sight to see because he had earlier come up with very reliable findings, and you can't treat a professional like that. But that is what I mean. That's the fate of these exit polls. Then they come under pressure. They have to explain how all of them got it wrong.
ETB: Alliance government is not something new for the BJP government. From 1998 to 2004, they had a coalition government. Why do you think it will be a tough job for Modi?
N Ram: Mr. Modi has no real experience in dealing with a coalition arrangement either in Gujarat or in the centre because he has alway won big, even when he was a Chief Minister.
Mr Vajpayee became Prime Minister when the Sangh parivar was on the rise, and he was a very mature politician… If you look at the BJP manifestos then, the Ram temple issue didn't always figure there. Mr. Advani was the one who tried to centre-stage it. But there was opposition, mainly because the coalition partners did not want it. Vajpayee was committed but not to the extent the others were but if you become the single largest party, and largely a one-person party, with the personality cult then it is very difficult to treat others as equals.
This is at a different stage now. You have a leader who has been very charismatic. That charisma has now dimmed a bit. No question about it. All the data from the polls, the surveys, the CSDS analysis, all point to that. The BJP share of the vote has also come down. The exit polls predicted 40% plus. Even the CSDS survey put it at that. It's actually 36.5%, which is a decent total but far less than what they hoped for. And therefore it remains to be seen how Mr Modi adjusts himself to this situation. He is quite capable of doing it, I think, but in a sense, he'll be a reinvented Modi.
ETB: What are the compromises BJP will have to make?
N Ram: CAA, and the Uniform Civil Code, is dead for this term. That's gone. It can't be imposed. Beside them, dealing with state governments belonging to the other camp has to undergo a change. You cannot be so hostile and treat them as enemies or even “anti-national”, the term they use.
ETB: What are the challenges in front of Chandrababu Naidu?
N Ram: I think he will have to defend his reputation. I know Mr Chandrababu Naidu very well. He values his reputation, his credibility, his trustworthiness, and his secularism. Mr Naidu has managed such a huge victory in Andhra Pradesh. He has to protect his reputation. He won't walk away from this NDA. But he will raise issues. And his people will hold him to account about this. So that will be his main challenge. It remains to be seen whether he succeeds in moderating the course of the BJP, particularly, Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah. He's demanding special status for his state, which has been bifurcated, and its resources are being weakened after the bifurcation. The Congress is sitting well in Telangana. Naidu says the situation is terrible (in Andhra) and finances are collapsing. So he's got to remedy it. For all this, you don't need confrontation between Centre and States in general. He can't say be decent, be good only to us, and for Tamil Nadu, let Governor (RN) Ravi do whatever he wants.
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