Kolkata: On May 7 when four seats spanning the three districts of Malda, Murshidabad and Nadia go to the polls in the third phase of elections in West Bengal, many eyes will be trained on how voters are responding in one particular seat, Murshidabad.
Why? Murshidabad Lok Sabha seat is the first among a series of seats in the state, which is all set to break the Trinamool Congress - BJP political binary. Murshidabad will witness a triangular contest between Abu Taher Khan of the Trinamool Congress, Gouri Shankar Ghosh of the BJP and last, but not the least, CPI(M) West Bengal state secretary and the party’s Politburo member Mohammed Salim.
And this is where the Congress - Left Front seat sharing adjustment is first taking a more robust and concrete shape. The question, which is doing rounds across Raninagar, Domkal, Bhagabangola or Hariharpara in Murshidabad or in Karimpur in Nadia district is, can Salim emerge from the Left’s ashes and be the party’s Phoenix from Bengal?
Congress state president and party’s Baharmpore candidate Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has personally campaigned for Salim. In a rare show of support, the once bitter rivals came together and clasped hands. Adhir had even sported a hammer and sickle embossed scarf around his neck in an ultimate show of solidarity.
Can Salim really make a dent in the Trinamool Congress and BJP votes on May 7? No, if one goes by the 2019 general elections. During the last Lok Sabha polls, there was no agreement or alliance between the Left and the Congress. Hence, it was a four-corner contest. The outcome was predictable. Trinamool’s Abu Taher romped home with the lion's share of 6,04,346 votes. BJP’s Humayun Kabir finished with 2,47,809 in his kitty, while Abu Hena of the Congress bagged 3,77,929 votes. Incidentally, Badruddoza Khan of the CPI(M) had polled only 1,80,793 votes.
So, how come the CPI(M) is expecting some spring under its feet this time?
First, in 2019 the difference between Trinamool Congress and a Left Front-Congress combine was only 45,624 votes. Second, in the 2021 Assembly elections, barring the seat of Murshidabad, Trinamool Congress managed to win all other six Assembly seats, convincingly. Third, though there are over 68% of Muslim minority votes in Murshidabad, yet polarisation does not necessarily work in this Lok Sabha seat.
From 1980 to 2019, barring the two stints of 2004-09 and 2009-14, the Left has been winning from Murshidabad, which has a majority of its residents engaged in numerous Bidi manufacturing units that dot the district. Many others also work as migrant workers. Finally, with only a little over 9% votes, BJP stood third in 2019. This time, a triangular contest only makes the saffron party’s prospects more tough.
The contest for Murshidabad could eventually boil down to a Trinamool Congress versus CPI(M) contest. With Abu Taher Khan remaining completely silent in the Parliament all through his first stint, Murshidabad might want its voice to be heard in the Lower House. And the two-time Lok Sabha MP and two-term Rajya Sabha MP, Mohammed Salim is well-known for his oratory skills.
If last year’s Panchayat elections are an indicator, out of 5589 gram panchayat seats, the Congress-Left combine came tantalisingly second to the Trinamool Congress. BJP finished a distant third. The gaps had started to close since 2019 and never reversed.
BJP’s Gouri Shankar Ghosh is also the party’s lone MLA in Murshidabad district. Party insiders are also not sure about his prospects and will be happy to settle for a ‘respectable’ third place, this time.
Assembly election results of West Bengal seldom have much bearing on the Lok Sabha poll outcome from the state. Equations could surely change. Will Murshidabad again don the Red colour? Wait till June 4.
Read More
- BJP Preparing Blueprint of Lies to Win LS Polls: Mamata
- Afraid of Offending Vote Banks, Cong and TMC Silent When Terror Struck During UPA Rule: Shah
