Srinagar: As the upcoming Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir draw near, all eyes are on the intense contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the INDIA bloc in the Pir Panjal range. The saffron party is heavily investing in its campaign efforts in Rajouri and Poonch, aiming to leverage the Gujjar and Pahadi divide to its advantage.
Rajouri and Poonch Assembly constituencies have become central to the saffron party’s strategy in the Jammu region where it hopes to win seats by banking on Pahadi support. This support follows the Modi government’s decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to the tribal population before the parliamentary elections.
The eight Assembly constituencies in Rajouri and Poonch have a dominant Gujjar and Pahadi population, who have been political rivals for decades. The rivalry has intensified since Pahadis were included in the Scheduled Tribe category.
While the BJP hopes that Pahadis will vote for the lotus symbol, the INDIA bloc partners--National Conference and Indian National Congress--are appealing to the Gujjar population and consolidating some Pahadi votes. The NC’s “trump card” is Mian Altaf, a veteran Gujjar leader, who is not only a Member of Parliament for Anantnag-Rajouri, but also a popular spiritual and faith healer for both Gujjar and Pahadi communities.
Rajouri and Poonch’s eight seats will vote in the second phase on September 25, and their outcome will be a vital factor in the formation of the first elected government in the UT.
A senior journalist from the region, Zamruud Mughal noted that the voting pattern in Rajouri and Poonch traditionally revolves around the Gujjar and Pahadi voter divide, with spiritual leaders and faith healing playing an important role in the elections.
He predicts that the eight seats will witness a close contest between BJP and NC-Congress candidates.
The BJP has intensified its campaign in the region, while INDIA bloc candidates are rallying in their constituencies. Mian Altaf has visited Poonch only once so far, but will be camping in Pir Panjal seats after the first phase of polling ends on September 18.
"BJP’s strength lies in their ability to bring all the rebels back into the party's fold after they were discontented with the tickets distribution. For the alliance, Mian Altaf, who was elected as a Member of Parliament from Anantnag-Rajouri, is the trump card for its candidates. His clean image, spiritual leadership and MP status are crucial for shifting voters towards the NC candidates," Mughal told ETV Bharat.
Riaz Choudhary, a resident of Rajouri, believes that Gujjar votes will consolidate in favour of the NC-Congress alliance as the BJP government granted ST status to Pahadis.
"The Gujjar population is very angry with the BJP and they have shown this anger in parliamentary elections by voting for Mian Altaf of NC. Altaf consolidated the Muslim-Gujjar vote while the Pahadis also voted for him," Choudhary said. "This pattern will repeat in the Assembly elections," he added.
In the parliamentary elections, the BJP did not field any candidate from the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, but fully supported and campaigned for Zaffar Manhas, the Apni Party candidate. Manhas lost the security deposit.
Electoral Map of Rajouri and Poonch
Rajouri and Poonch districts fall in the Pir Panjal range of the Himalayas and are close to the Line of Control. In these two districts, the BJP government reserved six out of the total eight seats for Scheduled Tribes. In Rajouri district, three out of five seats are reserved, while in Poonch, two out of three seats are reserved. Both districts are populated by Gujjar and Pahadi Muslims, with a mix of Hindu population. These districts have a cumulative of 8,42,214 voters.
Seats and Candidates in Rajouri
In the Rajouri district, Rajouri, Budhal and Thanamandi seats are reserved for STs, while Kalakote-Sunderbani and Nowshera are general seats. In Poonch, Poonch Haveli is the only general seat, while Surankote and Mendhar are reserved for STs. The five seats in Rajouri have a total of 4,90,591 voters, while the three seats in Poonch have 3,51,623 voters.
In the Rajouri (ST) seat, with a total of 89,102 voters, BJP has fielded senior politician and former MLC Vibodh Gupta, who is a Pahadi. He will contest against Iftikhar Ahmad, a Pahadi Congress leader. The PDP has fielded Gujjar candidate Tasaduq Hussain. This segment has significant Pahadi and Gujjar voters.
The Budhal (ST) seat has 95,072 voters, who will decide the fate of BJP candidate Choudhary Zulfkar, a Gujjar leader, who was a two-time legislator from PDP in 2008 and 2014. He switched over his loyalties to Apni Party in 2020 before joining the BJP a few weeks before the Assembly elections.
Zulfkar is directly pitched against his nephew Javaid Choudhary, a Gujjar leader, who joined the National Conference last month and got the ticket. Javaid's wife had defeated Zulfkar's wife in the 2020 District Development Council elections. Another young Gujjar activist, Guftar Choudhary, is contesting on the PDP ticket after recently entering politics following years of social activism.
In Thanamandi (ST), with a total of 1,22,370 voters, PDP candidate Choudhary Qamar Hussain, a Gujjar leader, who was elected on a PDP ticket in 2014 from Rajouri, will fight against senior Pahadi leader of Congress and former minister Shabir Khan. Khan was elected as an MLA in 2008 and served as Health Minister in the NC-Congress government from 2008-2014. Khan is also a DDC member in the segment.
The BJP has fielded prominent Pahadi leader Iqbal Malik while another Pahadi leader of NC Muzaffar Ahmad Malik is contesting as an independent. Malik has rebelled against the party after being denied the ticket to contest.
The Kalakote-Sunderbani seat has 97,541 voters. This seat was won by BJP leader Abdul Gani Kohli, a Gujjar leader, in the 2014 elections. However, the BJP denied him the ticket and fielded Thakur Ranbir Singh, who will contest against his nephew Yushuvardhan Thakur from the National Conference. Apni Party has fielded Arun Kumar Sharma, who has significant support.
BJP’s former president Ravinder Raina is contesting in Nowshera, which has a total of 86,506 votes. Raina is pitted against NC-Congress’s Surinder Choudhary. Choudhary was a PDP MLC, but joined the BJP in 2021 and later shifted to NC after being denied a ticket by the BJP.
Seats and Candidates in Poonch
The Surankote (ST) seat has 1,13,342 voters. The BJP has fielded senior Pahadi leader Syed Mushtaq Bukhari, a former NC legislator and minister. He is contesting against Congress’s Gujjar Shahnawaz Choudhary as the NC-Congress alliance candidate. However, the alliance faces a puzzle as NC rebel Akram Choudhary, a Gujjar leader and former Congress legislator is contesting as an independent.
Choudhary Akram is a veteran Gujjar leader and MP Mian Altaf’s cousin. He joined NC on Altaf’s insistence, but was denied the ticket due to a seat-sharing agreement with Congress. PDP has fielded Gujjar leader Javaid Choudhary from this seat.
The Mendhar (ST) constituency has 1,07,494 voters. NC has fielded senior Gujjar leader and former legislator Javaid Rana, who will contest against BJP’s Murtaza Khan, a Pahadi leader. Khan is a former PDP MLC, who supported Mehbooba Mufti in the parliamentary elections, but joined the BJP. PDP has given the ticket to Pahadi activist Nadeem Khan, while another Gujjar activist, Ishfaq Choudhary, is contesting as an independent.
In the Poonch Haveli segment, NC has fielded former legislator Ajaz Jan. Jan won the seat while he was defeated by Muhammad Tantray in the 2014 assembly polls.
Tantray a former government employee, switched over his loyalties to Apni Party in 2020 and is now contesting on the AP’s ticket. BJP has fielded Choudhary Abdul Ghani, a Gujjar leader, which has left the Pahadi population angry with the saffron party, as they had expected a ticket for their tribe.
Gulabgarh (ST) and Reasi
Another ST-reserved seat in the region is Gulabgarh (ST), which falls in the Reasi district. This segment has 94,684 voters. NC and Congress have fielded prominent Gujjar leader Engineer Khursheed Ahmad as a joint candidate, who will be pitted against former Congress legislator Ajaz Khan. The BJP has given the ticket to Akram Khan, also a Gujjar. Ajaz Khan is a two-time MLA from this seat, but left the Congress party in 2020 and joined the Apni Party, which he left to contest as an independent. PDP has given the ticket to Muhammad Farooq.
In the Reasi seat, Ajaz Khan’s brother Mumtaz Khan will be contesting as the Congress-NC alliance candidate where he will be in direct contest with BJP’s Kuldeep Raj Dubey. Dubey is a debutant, who replaced BJP’s former MLA Ajay Sharma. A total of 84,877 voters will decide their fate.
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