New Delhi: With Trump returning to office as the 47th President of the United States, attention is now focused on the potential effects this may have on India-US relations. Key areas such as H-1B visas, trade policies, and security and defense cooperation are expected to undergo notable changes under Trump 2.0. Analysts suggest that India and the US will work together to ensure mutual success.
Trump has made his position clear regarding his 'America First' agenda, yet he has also shown considerable respect for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In an interview with ETV Bharat, Republican leader Vibhuti Jha, said, "Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi share a personal connection and a mutual understanding of each other's political and economic priorities. They recognise the significant opportunities for alignment between Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) philosophy and Modi's Make in India initiatives. Their collaboration will be aimed at fostering success for both nations."
"Trump views India as a significant opportunity. He will likely use tariffs as a bargaining tool, a common practice in trade negotiations. India should not be overly concerned about this; rather, it should concentrate on areas of collaboration and highlight its needs and the market potential it offers to American businesses and investors," added Vibhuti Jha.
He emphasised that India plays a crucial role in security arrangements both in the Pacific and on various global fronts. "The 'America First' message is a reminder for every nation to prioritise its own agenda, which is entirely reasonable. One thing is certain: Trump is unlikely to tolerate any support for terrorism or secessionist movements that threaten India,” he added.
Jha concluded, “India should strive to take a more proactive role in global affairs. PM Modi has excelled in establishing himself as a statesman, enhancing India's global reputation and prestige, and he should leverage this to the fullest”, said Jha.
It is also worth noting that last month, Trump asserted that New Delhi imposes some of the highest tariffs on foreign products. Given Trump's views on trade, it is likely he will focus on policies that favor the US, pushing India to lower tariffs and adjust its export rules.
With Trump's return, another major issue for Indian workers in the US or those wanting to move there is the H-1B Visa. The H-1B visa program allows US companies to hire foreign workers in specialized fields like science, IT, engineering, and mathematics. This programme saw significant changes during Trump's presidency (2017-2021). He made the H-1B visa a key part of his immigration policy, introducing measures to tighten eligibility and increase scrutiny of applicants.
The Trump administration focused on stricter immigration law enforcement and more detailed reviews of visa applications. On April 18, 2017, Trump signed the "Buy American, Hire American" executive order, which instructed the Department of Labor, USCIS, and the Department of State to evaluate the H-1B visa program and suggest reforms. This order aimed to address H-1B visa misuse and ensure that U.S. workers were not replaced by foreign labor. As a result, the administration worked to change regulations to stop the H-1B program from being used to outsource jobs to lower-paid foreign workers and to ensure that companies hiring foreign workers offered a 'market wage.' In the past, Trump has voiced his concerns about the H-1B visa, calling it 'very bad' and 'unfair' to American workers. However, experts think there is a possibility that Trump may reform the H-1B visa programme.
Further, former diplomat Rajiv Dogra provided insights on Trump's presidency and its implications for India-US relations. He said the basic litmus test should be whether Trump has undergone any moderation in terms of temperament? If he has not, then a second term in the White House may closely resemble the first.
He emphasised that much will also depend on the type of advisors Trump chooses. The frequent changes in his first term were influenced by both his temperament and the unique characteristics of his advisors. A more stable advisory team could lead to improvement in governance and the predictability of both domestic and international policies.
Dogra also commented on the slogan "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), drawing parallels to historical autocratic rhetoric, which he believes could have negative repercussions internationally. He cautioned that a singular focus on making America great might necessitate sacrifices from other nations, particularly in areas such as defense and energy. He hoped that MAGA would remain a domestic campaign promise rather than a foreign policy objective.
He further raised concerns regarding Trump's stances on immigration and tariffs, particularly their potential impact on H1 visas and software exports from India. Dogra argued that a more measured approach is essential, as overly restrictive policies could ultimately be detrimental to the United States as well, adding that ‘with the right advisors, the outcomes may not be as extreme as they currently seem’.
“I do not observe any significant obstacles in India-US relations. In fact, the trajectory should be on a consistent upward trend. However, there may be occasional challenges, some of which could be substantial if factors like Pannun emerge as a disruptor, or if the United States' backing of Canada regarding the Khalistan issue becomes problematic. Therefore, it is prudent to monitor how Trump addresses these matters in his second term, as they are of considerable concern to India, especially given the previously positive trajectory of the India-U.S. relationship”, Dogra told ETV Bharat.
He said, “Regarding Ukraine, I anticipate minimal friction between India and the United States. Should circumstances shift, it is unlikely to pose a significant issue for either nation. Concerning our energy imports from Russia, it is well understood that a considerable portion of what we acquire is refined and subsequently exported to European markets. Additionally, our energy imports from the United States are quite significant. Thus, I do not foresee this becoming a contentious point, especially since Trump has consistently stated that Russia is not his adversary”.
Ambassador Dogra opined that it would be unrealistic to expect him to adopt an anti-China stance immediately upon entering the White House. “Instead, I believe both nations will approach their relationship with initial patience, to explore whether their interactions will be characterised solely by competition or a blend of competition and cooperation, while avoiding direct confrontation. Ultimately, time will reveal the trajectory of this relationship, which may indirectly influence the India-US dynamic for various reasons”, Dogra said.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a telephone conversation with the President-elect of the United States of America, Donald Trump and congratulated him on his re-election as the President of the United States of America as well as Republican Party’s success in the Congressional elections.PM highlighted that his spectacular and resounding victory reflected the deep trust of the American people in his leadership and vision.
Reflecting on the positive momentum of the India-US partnership during President Trump’s first term, PM recalled their memorable interactions, including the Howdy Modi event in Houston in September 2019 and the Namaste Trump event in Ahmedabad during President Trump’s visit to India in February 2020, the Ministry of External Affairs said.
Both leaders reiterated the importance of the India-U.S. Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, for the benefit of the people of the two countries as well as for global peace and stability. They reaffirmed their commitment to working together to further strengthen bilateral ties across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors. Hence, it will be quite intriguing to observe the developments that occur during Trump's presidency.
