India Likely To See Above-Normal Monsoon with 106 per cent Cumulative Rainfall: IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted an above average monsoon in India this year will rains seen at 106 pc of long period average. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall, the IMD said.

New Delhi: India is likely to receive above average monsoon rains in 2024, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The monsoon rains are seen at 106 per cent of long-period average in 2024.

"The 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm," IMD said in a statement.

Currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season, the IMD said.

Probability forecast of tercile categories*(below normal, normal, and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during monsoon season (June -September), 2024. The figure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. The model has no clear signal over the white shaded areas of the country. (Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities, of 33.33% each).

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate model forecasts indicate that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season, it said.

"The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) was below normal. Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall. IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May, 2024," the weather agency said.

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