Chandigarh: As the counting of votes in the Haryana Assembly Polls nears its end, pollsters are once again shocked to see their predictions gone wrong. Several exit polls had predicted a Congress victory in Haryana Assembly Elections which recorded a voter turnout of 67.90 per cent. Here is a look at the exit poll debacles over the years.
2024 Haryana Assembly Polls: The majority of the pollsters predicted a sweep for the congress party. But the results have gone the BJP's way.
2024 Lok Sabha Elections: At least 12 exit polls had predicted a landslide win for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. India Today-Axis My India, for example, predicted 361-401 seats to NDA, the News 24-Today's Chanakya said NDA will get 400 seats. The survey by ABP News-C Voter gave anywhere between 353-383 seats to NDA while Republic Bharat- P Marq predicted that NDA will get 359 seats. And as it turned out, the BJP-led NDA finished with just 293 seats when the actual results came. In fact, unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to win simple majority on its own and won 240 seats losing 63 seats from the 303 seats they previously held since 2019. The Congress-led INDIA bloc bagged 235 seats proving most of the exit polls inaccurate.
2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections: The exit polls predicted a tight BJP vs Congress race, with the odds, perhaps, in favour of the former. Four of nine gave the BJP a comfortable win; three gave it over 139 of the Assembly's 230 seats. But contrary BJP has swept the polls.
2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections: All eight exit polls have predicted that the Congress will win a clear majority. But BJP surprised everyone by defeating Congress in the Elections.
2021 West Bengal Election -India Today’s Axis My India exit poll results showed BJP in the lead with 134-160 seats and TMC with 130-156 seats. Republic-CNX poll projected BJP’s victory with 138-148 seats and TMC lagging behind with 128-138 seats. However, when the actual results were out, BJP was wrapped with just 77 seats and TMC came back to power.
2020 Bihar Assembly Election: Many exit polls predicted an alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal lead coalition in Bihar in 2020 but it was the BJP-JD(U) alliance that walked away with the victory. Axis My India poll and Today’s Chanakya had predicted RJD-led alliance win but, as we can now say, it was a big miss.
2019 Maharashtra and Haryana: During Maharashtra and Haryana state elections, the major survey agencies and news organisations had predicted a big win for the BJP and its respective state allies. That was not to be though. As the post-result wrangling to form a government in both the states went on to display.
2018 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections: Most exit polls failed to predict the massive mandate that the Congress got in Chhattisgarh.
2017 Punjab Assembly Polls- More recently at the time of the 2017 Punjab Assembly polls, when the pollsters had predicted massive support for AAP, is also an example of how exit polls can be way off the mark.
For instance, the Aaj Tak-Axis exit polls gave 18-22 seats to BJP+SAD, 56-61 to the Congress and between 36-41 to AAP while the TV 24 News gave 20-25 seats to BJP+SAD, 27-35 to the Congress and a thumping victory to AAP with 70-80 seats. But then, as things turned out, Congress had emerged as the uncontested winner, bagging 77 of the 117 seats. SAD-BJP had netted 18 seats while AAP had managed to bag 20.
2017 UP Elections: In UP, most exit polls had predicted that there would be a hung assembly but BJP would still emerge as the largest party. Most exit polls had predicted that the BJP’s win would be around 160 to 180 seats, whereas 202 seats are required in a 403-seat Assembly for any party or coalition to come out as a majority.
2015 Delhi Assembly Polls: In the Delhi Assembly Elections of 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) secured a commanding victory with 67 seats out of 70. Exit polls conducted on the voting day had anticipated a clear majority for AAP, but none foresaw such a sweeping verdict, with only one hinting at a tally exceeding 50 seats.
2015 Bihar Elections: The 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls proved a complete failure to make correct estimates. BJP + was said to have the edge over the JDU-RJD alliance in all exit polls, but the results were reversed. The BJP was reduced to + 58 seats, while the JDU-RJD alliance won 178 seats.
2004 LOK SABHA DEBACLE: Most memorably back in 2004, when the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government had dissolved Lok Sabha to face elections eight months before the end of its term. NDA’s confidence was due to its success in the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, and the exit polls which followed the dissolution of the Lok Sabha bolstered the view that the alliance would be well on its way to retaining power.
At the time, India Today had predicted 330 seats for the NDA, while other polls predicted that the NDA would get somewhere around 270 seats. But then the elections happened, and on the fateful day that the results started to trickle in, it became clear that the pollsters had got their numbers horribly wrong. Not just in terms of the number of seats, but also, in fact, the result: the UPA stormed to power, while the NDA, which the pollsters had predicted would manage to reach the majority mark, had ended up polling only 181 seats.
