By Surabhi Gupta
New Delhi: New Delhi is afflicted by an unusually warm spell this February, with temperatures breaching 28.6 degrees Celsius on Monday, February 18, 2025. That only makes it the season's second hottest day, coming after the season's highest temperature of 29.7 degrees Celsius recorded on February 11.
This temperature hike, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is well above the usual February norm, thus ringing alarm bells over changing climate patterns, as well as growing environmental issues troubling the national capital. The day started cool and crisp with temperatures as low as 10 degrees Celsius. But by daytime, the heat increased alongside moderate air quality conditions.
The Air Quality Index (AQI) hit 191 on ground level, classified as "moderate," the pollution level reached tell-tale proportions, dashing hopes for air quality improvement across the city, as later in the day a depressed AQI level was noted at 294, categorized as "poor."
The IMD forecast suggests that the odd warm weather will prevail for another few days ahead with very little upside change in maximum and minimum readings. Most weather experts are predicting a rise in temperature of one degree to three degrees Celsius across parts of Northwest India, Central India, and Eastern regions between February 16 and 19.
This scenario is linked to the transmission of changing meteorological patterns and the gradual advent of pre-summer weather in the region. The principal reason for the sudden departure from the weather is that the western disturbances intended to cross the western Himalayan region and the neighbouring plains will approach there between February 18 and 20.
In the meantime, the previous days so far have been characterised by clear skies and situations with northwesterly winds, which helped accrue some heat intensity in the region. With temperatures running high, air quality levels in the city are dampened even further. The AQI readings for the CPCB classify 0-50 as "good", 51-100 as "satisfactory," 101-200 as "moderate," 201-300 as "poor," while anything above 300 lies in the range of "very poor" to "severe."
The present status of the air quality index in Delhi is 304, which falls into the "very poor" category. Vulnerable people like kids, the elderly, and those with breathing problems are advised to stay inside while others are encouraged to reduce outdoor activities.
Across Northwest India temperatures are getting higher and fluctuating, a pattern that is likely due to climate change and the shifting of seasonal patterns. These unpredictable situations are a big challenge for agriculture, water resources, and the region’s flexibility to adjust to rapid environmental changes. In the face of such a bad air quality situation, Delhi has taken recourse to Stage-I and II measures of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) to alleviate further pollution.
The IMD predicts Delhi will witness a slight decrease in the temperatures with the rain being forecasted for February 19 and 20. At the same time, the relief from the showers will be temporary as the city will be experiencing warmer and warmer conditions with the temperatures to be rising in the following weeks.
Prof. (Dr) S.N. Mishra, A Climate Change & Weather Expert, at TERI School of Advanced Studies, told ETV Bharat, "The unseasonably warm temperatures in Delhi this February can be attributed to the influence of Western Disturbances (WDs), which are impacting the Himalayan states. As WDs approach, temperatures in the plains tend to rise temporarily."
"This is a natural pattern and not necessarily an anomaly. However, going forward, successive WDs are expected between February 20–22 and again around February 26–27. These systems will bring snowfall to the Himalayas and light rain in the plains, which is essential for maintaining the regional ecosystem and ensuring a steady cooling effect on the plains through February and into March," Mishra said.
"This cooling is particularly crucial for wheat crops at the ripening stage. Regarding air quality, the current ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’ levels are largely influenced by change of winds due to approaching WD. However, the light rainfall predicted in the plains of NW India for February 19 and 20 will help improve air quality by settling pollutants. On the downside, there is a risk of hailstorms accompanying these showers, which could pose a threat to standing crops. Overall, the current weather patterns are largely seasonal and beneficial for winter crops and both attributable to climate change, though localised impacts such as hail damage remain a concern," Mishra added.
An environmentalist Manu Singh said, "February has been particularly warm in 2025 which can be attributed to the absence of heavy rainfall and extremely feeble western disturbances- systems that normally bring cold winds to Northern India, combined with clear skies and thus more direct sunlight reaching the ground."
"This phenomenon is further exacerbated by the absence of La Nina, a climatic pattern that helps in further cooling the region. But if we delve into the core of this predicament then this is actually a global phenomenon and everywhere this rise in mercury can be tied to anthropogenic climate change. These warmer temperatures in Delhi during the winter can actually worsen the AQI by decreasing wind speeds, which causes pollutants to stagnate in the air and be trapped close to the ground due to a phenomenon called temperature inversion. This is particularly problematic because colder winter currents are helpful in dispersing pollutants more effectively," Manu Singh said.
Selomi Garnaik, a climate expert from Greenpeace said, "Unusually warm temperatures in Delhi this February are primarily due to human activities driving global warming, which is disrupting normal weather patterns. This is leading to more unpredictable weather, such as early warmth."
"Additionally, the weakening of western disturbances, which traditionally bring cold air to the region, has reduced cold waves and rainfall, causing a rise in temperatures. This could become a more regular pattern in the future, as we continue to experience the cascading effects of climate change. As the IMD forecasts a rise in temperatures, it’s vital that the government implements stronger adaptation measures to protect vulnerable groups, especially informal workers who face prolonged exposure to heat," Garnaik said.
"These workers—street vendors, construction labourers, and others—are at high risk of heat-related illnesses. We urgently call for policies that ensure better access to hydration stations, shade, and rest areas for these workers. Additionally, employers should be held accountable for providing heat safety measures, and the government should promote awareness and provide adequate support to protect these groups from the growing health risks associated with rising temperatures. It's high time that NDMA notifies heatwave as a national disaster, which would ensure more funding for adaptation of these impacted communities," added Garnaik.
