Guwahati: A 63-year-old man, Dayal Nath has been a farmer for all his life. Hailing from a land-rich family, Dayal distinctly remembers his father and grandfather working actively in paddy fields. Dayal himself was a happy farmer until 2022 when the flood ravaged most of his paddy field. Like Dayal, many farmers of the Narayanguri area in the Barpeta district still repent the flood in 2022 and they are unsure as to when they can grow paddy in their fields again.
Although three to four waves of flood in a year are common for most of the districts in Assam, the flood in 2022 was different. In areas like Narayanguri, the villagers are accustomed to floods--there are floods every year and the farmers get back to the field after the flood water recedes. However, post-2022, farmers like Dayal had not been able to go back to their fields again--the flood waters brought in loads of sand and silts which covered the paddy fields, making them unworthy of growing again.
"I have not been able to cultivate last year. There were loads of sand deposits in the fields--it has become full of sand and we can't grow anything there," said Dayal. Dayal's example is just one in many. Most of the farmers in the area are unsure as to when the soil will become ready to grow paddy again.
About 200 km east of Barpeta district, where Narayanguri is located, Bhagaban Rabha, a resident of Jimirgaon village in Kamrup district, has been struggling hard to save the orange orchards he owns. Change in the temperature has negatively impacted the production of oranges. The over 90 families in the Rabha tribal-dominated Jimirgaon have traditionally relied on their orange orchards to sustain their livelihood.
"The orange orchards are our only livelihood. Our families have been dependent on the orange orchards for generations. However, things are changing now. While we are witnessing more heat during summer these days, the intensity of cold has also reduced. Earlier in December it used to be very cold in our areas but this year it's just a moderate cold," said Bhagaban Rabha.
"Our orchards used to be full of fruits till January, this year oranges are over by October. Just a few more fruits are hanging on the trees," said Rabha.
The declining production of oranges has forced the tribals in Jimirgaon to consider extending their paddy cultivation. Although this hill dweller community does paddy and other crops cultivation, oranges used to be their mainstay. "Things are changing here. Sometimes it rains more than usual in a particular period of time while it does not rain at all for the rest of the time. We are concentrating more on paddy these days. If there is surplus production we can sale them in the market for cash," said Jiten Rabha another orange farmer of Jimirgaon.
The concern raised by Dayal and Bhagaban Rabha can be understood better if one looks at the recent study by Azim Premji University. The study "Indian Himalayan Regions Climate Projections 2021 - 2040" indicates that while the intensity of rains will increase substantially during the summers in Assam and other parts of the northeast region the average rainfall will decrease in winters affecting agriculture. The report further indicates that as rainfall intensity increases it will lead to natural calamities like floods and landslides affecting people's lives and livelihood.
The projections which are based on a period of 2021 to 2040 also indicate that average temperature will increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius. "Many Himalayan districts will experience extremely heavy single-day rainfall events. Extremely heavy rainfall events of more than 100 mm in a single day will become common, especially in the eastern Himalayan districts. While most districts in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Assam will experience a decrease in rainfall, most districts in Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram and Nagaland will experience an increase in rainfall," the report said.
Assam-based environmental scientist with special interest in the area of Water, climate change and disasters, Partha Jyoti Das said that climate change is a reality now. "There have been lots of climate variations that we have already observed. He said that while the floods are not new for the people in Assam, the timing, intensity, and extent as they are happening now are surprising.
Most of the state had witnessed multiple waves of floods by June 2022. However, after the floods, there was a long dry period in July and August. The dry spell again followed by rains in September and October leading to floods again. These kinds of variations in weather affect the farmers majorly who mostly grow paddy for their sustenance
Known for its lush green nature, rich biodiversity and temperate climate, India's northeastern states have been facing severe challenges due to global warming and climate change. While extreme weather events like drought and high-intensity floods have already affected people's lives and livelihood, the lack of awareness among the people particularly about resilience and adaptation measures is seemingly making it more complicated for the people.
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