Suvendu Adhikari - an enigma Mamata is yet to decipher

Suvendu Adhikari, the former 'prince' of Trinamool Congress, is virtually pitted against the present 'prince' and Mamata Banerjee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee. The daggers are drawn and it is just time before blood is spilt. Shirsendu Chakraborty of ETV Bharat dissects the current crisis that has gripped TMC ahead of the 2021 Assembly elections.

Kolkata:Dissident Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Suvendu Adhikari who had been pursuing an 'Ekla Cholo Rey' (to walk alone) and was seen attending programmes in the state which did not have party's name or symbol had two slides. In 2010, he was seen with the party flag during the elections campaign rally. Whereas after resigning from the party he was seen with the same attire but this time, under the shadow of the national flag leaving the other parties in a dilemma.

Two slides encompass the journey of Suvendu Adhikari in the past ten years. From being one of the most trusted lieutenants of Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the 'prince' of TMC is now only a leader. The difference in flags in Adhikari's hand is a telling mark on the future of Mamata's party and its prospects in some of the crucial south Bengal districts ahead of next year's Assembly elections.

In the post-Nandigram Trinamool, Suvendu was a constant figure alongside Mamata. The grapevine within the party was, the supremo liked her 'prince' most in the party. It showed when he was offered an Assembly ticket and then a Lok Sabha ticket and eventually a cabinet position in the ministry. Suvendu was also a member of the Trinamool parliamentary committee. Alongside his presence in the government, the leader of Medinipur was becoming one of the deciding factors in the party's organisational activities. He was also the party's overseer for several key districts.

But, the symphony sounded discordant with the rapid rise of another 'prince' in the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Banerjee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee's rise was phenomenal. And with that rise, Suvendu has been steadily relegated to the limits of Purba Medinipur district, his turf.

Only a couple of days ago, things suddenly took some quick turns and it seemed that the rhythm within TMC was returning back. Trying to put an end to the months' long speculation about whether Suvendu will be in the party or quit and join any rival camp, Mamata put her veteran duo – Sougata Roy and Sudip Bandopadhyay, in action. Coupled with them were Abhishek and election strategist Prashant Kishore. A team, which was never constituted by Mamata ever, to prevent the exit of any party leader, be it Mukul Roy, Sovan Chatterjee or Kunal Ghosh.

It was evident how much Mamata was concerned about evident bleeding within her support base if Suvendu quit Trinamool.

All four met Suvendu. What transpired behind closed doors is anybody's guess, but a confident Sougata said after the meeting that all was well in Trinamool. But, barely 12 hours after the meeting and Sougata going public about the outcome, Suvendu rejected the compromise and said he should be excused as it was tough for him to work with 'them'. Incidentally, not a word against the party, but only a couple of individuals. The stand has only made things tough for the Trinamool to take any tough step against Suvendu. The disciplinary committee or the party's core committee has virtually nothing against him to charge with.

No doubt, Mamata Banerjee is facing one of her toughest elections, in 2021. Many party leaders have already voiced their displeasure over the handling of party affairs, with many openly criticising the decision to rope in Prashant Kishore. The MLA of Coochbehar-South has already quit, the MLA from Barrackpore has refused to contest, the MLA from Jagatdal has decided to quit politics and the TMC MLA from Durgapur and Diamond Harbour have said there is no space in the party to work. Many of whom Mamata had relied upon and had marched to Writers' Buildings in 2011 and then to the 14th-floor office of Nabanna, are not with her today. Suvendu Adhikari is the latest addition.

There is simply no way that the Trinamool Congress can discount Suvendu's organisational capabilities. In the most testing times of the party, it was Suvendu who had managed to keep the TMC flag flying in the districts of Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, apart from his own strongholds. It is true that no one is indispensable in politics and Suvendu is no exception. It is only time before Mamata finds a replacement for her erstwhile 'prince', but will that person be as effective as Suvendu? Will the person have the same capabilities and charishma as Suvendu? Nobody knows for sure, leave alone Mamata.

If he quits party, then will Suvendu join BJP?

This is a million-dollar question at the moment. Interestingly, Suvendu has a wide support base among the Muslim minority. If he switches sides and teams up with the saffron brigade, that base might turn against him, which will eventually be a brownie point for the Trinamool Congress. Obviously, Suvendu won't be willing to share his pie with TMC, after quitting.

Can he float his own party?

Well, this option is always open. It surely presents Suvendu with the option of garnering support from the disgruntled Trinamool Congress workers, the Left as well as the Congress. The only problem in this move is, time. With not even six months left for the scheduled Assembly polls, will the Election Commission give him the requisite go ahead? Or can he make any desired impact in such a short span? The answer could be in the negative.

The most important question now is, if Suvendu stays with TMC, will team Abhishek give him the requisite leeway? The answer is not known at the moment, but a favourable reply seems unlikely.

Did the two sides bury their hatchets during the closed-door meeting? Again the answer could be in the negative because even as the meeting was happening, the government had given a go-ahead to constitute a committee in the transport department. The same department, where Suvendu was the minister only a few days back. Incidentally, the committee was headed by Madan Mitra, a former transport minister in Mamata's cabinet and whom Suvendu had succeeded. The signals were enough for Suvendu Adhikari to make his mind up. It is only a matter of time before the cord is formally severed.

The fallout? Mamata already has an uphill task charted out for her. Suvendu's exit could also mean that his father and present Kanthi MP Sisir Adhikari as well as brother and present Tamluk MP Dibyendu Adhikari, following suit. Ahead of the crucial Bengal polls, the TMC supremo's path is only getting bumpier.