Is the Lotus wilting before blooming in Bengal?

Desertions are normal in politics and switching parties has also become a daily routine for the polity. But, the way Trinamool Congress workers and leaders made a beeline for the BJP in hordes and were welcomed with open arms, was quite uncanny and hardly seen in Bengal’s politics, writes ETV Bharat News Coordinator Dipankar Bose.

Hyderabad:A simple question is doing rounds in the corridors of power in Kolkata as former BJP leader Mukul Roy gradually settles in the hierarchy of Trinamool Congress since his return. How many and when? Roy is back to the Trinamool Congress after a gap of around four years along with his son Subhranshu. And the new opposition party of Bengal, the BJP, is literally shaken. They desperately want to get answers to the question before more bleeding happens.

Is the return of a 67-year-old politician, who is diabetic and requires daily shots of insulin, such an issue that it poses a serious threat to the seemingly impregnable fortress of the saffron brigade? Apparently, the BJP does not feel so. The party’s state president Dilip Ghosh has already said Mukul Roy had not been any significant contributor to the party; hence, his departure would not make much difference. This is where the twist lies.

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Desertions are normal in politics and switching parties has also become a daily routine for the polity. But, the way Trinamool Congress workers and leaders made a beeline for the BJP in hordes and were welcomed with open arms, was quite uncanny and hardly seen in Bengal’s politics.

The sudden spurt in switching camps can only have two distinct reasons. First, the BJP had decided to deal a body blow to the Trinamool Congress ahead of the crucial Assembly elections and second, the party wanted to have those people on board who could fill the vacuum created by the dearth of candidates as the elections inched closed. A simple figure will put things in perspective. Out of the 293 seats that the BJP contested in the Bengal Assembly elections, there were turncoat candidates in 148 seats. It is a different issue that only six managed to win.

Coming back to the issue of Mukul Roy, it is now evident that whatever Dilip Ghosh says, BJP desperately needed Trinamool’s master tactician in their fold. Why it becomes more evident is because, unlike other Trinamool Congress leaders who dived for a saffron splash, Mukul switched sides when there was no electoral contest ahead. It was in November 2017 that Mukul Roy joined BJP, two years before the general elections and four years before the Assembly polls. It is now clear as daylight that had there been no Mukul Roy in the BJP camp, the party could not put up a stellar performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The phenomenal result of bagging 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats, indicated a saffron surge in Bengal, where BJP had a minuscule presence. Minus Mukul Roy and his tactics in North Bengal as well as the social engineering formula in Matua-dominated areas of North 24 Parganas and Nadia districts bordering Bangladesh, the math simply could not have worked for the BJP.

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For Mukul Roy, however, things were not that interesting in his newfoundland. Without being offered a Central ministry berth due to his erstwhile links in both Sarada and Narada scams, the veteran politician was finally anointed with the post of BJP national vice-president by party national president JP Nadda only in September 2020, barely a couple of months ahead of the 2021 elections. The elevation did have its own cost for Mukul with fellow party leaders like Rahul Sinha openly crying foul. And then came the entry of Suvendu Adhikari in the BJP-fold.

What Suvendu had alleged about his earlier party Trinamool Congress, where he had a meteoric rise, had come back to bite Mukul. If the strained relations between Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee and Suvendu was one of the prime reasons for the latter’s decision to switch sides, the gobbling of the entire political space by Suvendu was enough for Mukul Roy to comprehend who would hog the future limelight in Bengal BJP. Gradually matters became more evident with Suvendu becoming the face of the party’s campaign in the polls and Mukul being asked to contest an Assembly seat, mostly against his will.

Though Mukul Roy was getting enough indications, yet he kept going with the party decisions and won the election, becoming a legislator of the Bengal Assembly for the first time. But, then the party drew fresh blood out of Mukul by selecting Suvendu Adhikari as the Leader of the Opposition, ignoring him. By then Mukul knew he was bleeding chips for the BJP and Suvendu was the man of the moment.

So, what does Mukul Roy have to offer Trinamool Congress now when Mamata Banerjee has bagged a resounding victory with 213 seats, practically all by herself? The elevation of Abhishek Banerjee as the party’s national general secretary leaves an even narrower room for Mukul to manoeuvre in Trinamool today. What exactly does Mukul bring on the Trinamool table now?

For answers, Mukul Roy has already hinted that several BJP leaders are in touch with him and things would unfold soon. For starters, the BJP MLA from Bagda in North 24 Parganas, Biswajit Das, is already seen openly siding with Trinamool. Das was a two-time legislator on a TMC ticket, who joined BJP on the insistence of Mukul. An MLA from the Matua-stronghold, Das could eventually be the one who opens the floodgates.

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And if that happens, two very pertinent questions will start doing the rounds. Will the crack in the saffron camp weaken the ground-level support base for BJP? And, will Mukul’s exit eventually turn out to be a costly affair for them?

Speculations are rife that on Biswajit’s heels are Sudip Mukhopadhyay MLA from Purulia and Ranaghat Uttar-Paschim MLA Parthasarathi Chattopadhyay, both BJP MLAs. The resignation of Soumitra Khan as BJP Yuva Morcha chief in Bengal, after being denied a central berth during the cabinet reshuffle, has all the necessary ingredients to turn the BJP’s rough patch into a potboiler. Later in the day, Soumitra Khan withdrew his resignation.

Will there be a reverse exodus aided by none other than Mukul Roy? Will the petals of the lotus wilt before blooming in Bengal? The wait for the answers might not be a long one.