Telangana Assembly polls: Can Congress foil KCR's bid to pull out any other trick from his hat for third term

Will BRS' juggernaut roll on in the ensuing Assembly polls in Telangana? It remains to be seen as the BRS chief and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is leaving no stone unturned to romp home for the third consecutive time. Congress, which ate a humble pie in the past two assembly polls, wanted to win the poll battle by raking up various issues, including the BRS family rule. Whereas BJP, too, is trying to secure more seats, but it is a million-dollar question, which party will form the next government in Telangana, writes ETV Bharat's G Ravi Kiran.

Hyderabad: Ever since Telangana was carved out of undivided Andhra Pradesh in 2014, BRS chief and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has reaped a rich harvest out of the statehood sentiment by scoring spectacular victories in the two successive Assembly elections. In 2014 polls, KCR invoked Telangana pride, unleashed a massive attack on Andhra customs and snatched an astounding win that left both the Congress party high command and State leadership in utter shock over underestimating KCR and not being able to capitalise on the sentiment despite having conferred separate state.

In the 2018 polls, KCR primarily relied on his promise of reconstructing 'Bangaru Telangana' (Golden Telangana) and his government's implementation of welfare schemes like 'Rythu Bandhu' and execution of projects like 'Mission Bhageeradha' during his first term. Similarly, being a seasoned politician, KCR was able to revive the Telangana sentiment by launching a ruthless attack on the Congress for joining hands with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) under the name 'Praja Kutami' (People's Alliance).

Now, in the November 30 election this year, KCR has been very cautious not to bring up the Telangana sentiment during his hectic election meetings so far. Political experts say that KCR is pragmatic enough to see the fact that any effort to invoke Telangana sentiment for a third time might boomerang on the ruling BRS. Moreover, the TDP led by former Chief Minister of the erstwhile undivided AP N Chandrababu Naidu, is not contesting this assembly elections. KCR, who quit as a TDP leader to found Telangana Rashtra Samithi, always sees a reemerging TDP as a threat to his party in Telangana.

TDP a primary target of sentiment: Prior to separate statehood, KCR joined hands with TDP in the 2009 Andhra Pradesh elections. Soon after the 2014 bifurcation, KCR launched scathing attacks on TDP, branding it as an Andhra party in Telangana's maiden election. TDP became his sole target as his salvos, if any, on the Congress would not have any desired results as the grand old party was already an established national party and its Andhra leaders concentrated their activities only in that state. With TDP withdrawing from the contest in the November 30 Telangana election, the BRS chief is almost deprived of any glaring opportunity to reinvoke the sentiment.

TDP withdrawal from the contest: The TDP leadership has decided it would not be able to focus its attention on the Telangana elections now considering the prevailing political situation in AP. The situation refers to the aftermath of the unexpected arrest and imprisonment of N Chandrababu Naidu in the skill development case.

Kasani Gnaneshwar, who was serving as TDP Telangana chief recently took a contrarian view. “The AP situation cannot be given as a reason for not contesting in Telangana polls and it amounted to letting down TDP ticket aspirants, who have been working actively to contest polls,” he said. For all practical purposes, the exit of the TDP almost put an end to the much-used Telangana card of BRS.

What Congress claims:Congress Telangana President A Revanth Reddy claims that if there is any party that would benefit from Telangana sentiment in this election, it would be their party because it was with Sonia Gandhi's blessings separate Telangana finally took shape after decades of waiting. Congress party argues that Telangana people have tested KCR leadership twice and they will not trust the BRS rule any more.

Consequences of no sentiment: The BRS chief is now facing the greatest test to his known genius as a successful election strategist. In the upcoming election, he has to singularly depend on his government's achievements in the past 10 years together with his ability to neutralise the impact of anti-incumbency and to tackle 'settlers' (a term BRS uses to denote those from Andhra), who wield decisive influence in over 20 out of the 119 Assembly constituencies in the state.

The recent arrest of Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and certain remarks made by Minister KT Rama Rao's comment against protests by IT professionals in Hyderabad. KCR, who has joined the issue with his son, asserted that the remarks were aimed against the AP government, 'If there's a double lane road, it's Telangana, if there's a single road, that is Andhra', indicating that Telangana has developed far ahead while the neighbouring AP is languishing far behind.

Can self-respect replace sentiment:The general rhetoric of KCR and his party shifted from blaming erstwhile Andhra rulers to highlighting Telangana development in contrast to the neighbouring Telugu State. KCR leaves no opportunity to harp on how Telangana made rapid strides in development by citing the huge real estate appreciation of lands. On the other hand, his son KTR seizes every chance to recount the skyrocketing progress of Hyderabad, the capital of Telangana, as a hub of software, Genome Valley and pharmaceuticals.

Fragmentation of 'settlers' vote bank: Unlike in the previous two elections, the 'settlers', the election pundits say, will remain divided on a wide variety of considerations. Firstly, they will vote for their candidate even if he or she is contesting on the party ticket or not to their liking.

In Jubilee Hills posh constituency, BRS gave a ticket to its sitting candidate Maganti Gopinath, who has been a legislator ever since he first won here in 2014 on a TDP ticket. Experts say the so-called 'Settlers', who were loyal TDP voters, may vote KCR as they were doing until this election with little or no consequence despite the latest heartburn over Naidu's arrest by the police under the regime of AP CM Jaganmohan Reddy in AP.

While actor Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena party may garner some 'settlers' votes in some segments, YSR's daughter Sharmila has called upon the sympathisers of the YSR family to vote for Congress. All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi has urged his supporters to help BRS wherever his party is not contesting.

Beneficiaries as a captive vote bank:Under the Rythu Bandhu scheme, the KCR government gave Rs 5,000 per acre as yearly financial assistance to farmers. BRS regime also gave Rs 2,016 to Rs 3,016 assistance to a variety of beneficiaries, including elderly people, widows, physically challenged, toddy tappers and weavers, under the Aasara scheme. After Congress announced six guarantees, BRS has promised to increase financial assistance to beneficiaries.

BJP-Pawan Kalyan factor:Two years ago, BJP projected the image of throwing its hat in the ring as a major contender for power in Telangana. But, the dramatic replacement of aggressive leader Bandi Sanjay as party state president changed the game. Congress has been accusing the BJP of cosying up with the BRS leadership. BJP's alliance with actor Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena is expected to divide 'settlers' votes to some extent. Whether it will benefit BRS or Congress will be known only on December 3 when the results will be out. In the 2018 elections, TRS, presently BRS, got a resounding mandate of 88 seats as against Congress— 19, AIMIM— 7, TDP—2 and BJP's one.