Exit Poll Accuracy: Polls in MP, Rajasthan, and Telangana show accuracy; Chhattisgarh defies expectations

According to the early predictions of the Exit polls, it was expected that the BJP would win only in two states- Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. While the Congress was set to form government in Telangana and Chhattisgarh. However, after the final counting, the exit polls proved to be accurate for Rajasthan, Telangana, and Madhya Pradesh only and the Chhattisgarh result was a surprise for everyone.

Hyderabad/New Delhi: The political landscape in India witnessed a seismic shift as the much-anticipated results of Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh unfurled, drawing the nation's attention in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Early exit poll projections indicated that the BJP would only be expected to win in two states: Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Congress, meanwhile, was expected to establish the government in Chhattisgarh and Telangana. But after all was said and done, the exit polls turned out to be accurate only for Rajasthan, Telangana, and Madhya Pradesh, while the results from Chhattisgarh surprised everyone.

The final result came in favor of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it is set to form government in three key states – Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, while the Congress seems poised to take control only in Telangana.

The accuracy of the exit polls both before and after counting is shown here:

Madhya Pradesh:Exit polls hinted at a tighter contest, projecting 124 seats for the BJP against the Congress's expected 102 in the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly. However, the current trends tell a different tale, with the BJP firmly leading, crossing the 160-seat mark, while the Congress lags at 66 seats. The results suggest a clear advantage for the BJP, surpassing initial projections.

Rajasthan: Forecasts in Rajasthan had predicted a relatively close race, estimating 104 seats for the BJP against 85 for the Congress-led alliance out of the total 200. Contrary to expectations, the BJP has outperformed predictions, securing 115 seats, while the Congress coalition trails with 70. This outcome marks a notable lead for the BJP, deviating from the anticipated scenario.

Telangana: Exit polls projected a Congress-led government with around 62 seats, while the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) was expected to secure 44 out of the 119 seats. Presently, the Congress and its alliance command 64 seats, with BRS holding 39, and the BJP coalition securing 8.

Chhattisgarh: The Poll of Polls had foreseen Congress's victory, estimating 38 seats for the BJP out of the 90 available. However, the exit polls for the state proved wrong as the BJP stormed to power.