Faced with tough challenges AIADMK to enter uncharted waters

Celebrating its 49th foundation day, the ruling AIADMK, under the diarchy of Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister, O Panneerselvam, is entering into uncharted waters as the party faces an acid test – the upcoming state assembly elections. The party has just recovered from the wrangling over the Chief Ministerial candidate for the polls. Though the issue had been resolved with EPS as the CM face, it remains to be seen whether he could match the charismatic Jayalalithaa in shouldering the burden and retaining power after the DMK stole a march over the AIADMK and activated the election war machine, writes ETV Bharat's Tamil Nadu Bureau Chief M C Rajan.

Chennai: Celebration was muted, though not dampened. The ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) celebrated the party's 49th foundation day on Saturday without much fanfare. Only last week, the Dravidian major had recovered from the inner-party wrangling over who will be the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party for the upcoming Assembly elections, due early next year. Under the diarchy of Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and Deputy CM, O Panneerselvam (OPS), the party faces tough challenges in the year ahead: either retain power or be a principal player in the political domain.

With the announcement of EPS as the party's Chief Ministerial face for the polls, the crisis plaguing the party was resolved which was a clear indication of his hold over the party apparatus. Now, he has the onerous task of steering the AIADMK in the elections, a real acid test for the party and his leadership.

For, in the 2019 LS polls, the party's vote share had plummeted to an all-time low of 18.48% which was a 59% drop and could win only a lone seat out of the 21, it had contested in alliance with the BJP, PMK and others. Contrast this with 2014, when the party went solo under Jayalalithaa. Then, the party had polled 44% and won 38 seats out of 39 in the state. Again, in the bypoll for 22 Assembly seats, the AIADMK could win only 9.

With the principal opposition, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, marching ahead of its traditional rival by activating its election machine, the task has been cut out for EPS.

“It is a tough challenge for the AIADMK as well as the leadership of EPS. Though he should be credited with keeping the party united and is about to complete his tenure, it should be remembered that he is pitted against the formidable DMK,” says Dr R Thirunavukkarasu, teaching sociology at the University of Hyderabad.

Yet, Thirunavukkarasu makes it clear that the upcoming assembly poll would not be a repeat of the 2019 LS elections. “Then the DMK was riding on the crest of an anti-Modi sentiment and had reaped a rich political harvest. But, it may not be the same in the assembly elections as the dynamics differ. Even though EPS is no match for the charismatic Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK too had made efforts to recover lost base,” he explained.

However, another constant issue that creates ripples in the party is the potential impact that the eventual release of VK Sasikala, the close confidant of Jayalalithaa, early next year. Whether she would act as a destabilising force by attempting to wrest control of the party remains to be seen. Though the AIADMK maintains that she would not be accommodated, analysts differ on this.

“Sasikala could not be dismissed that easily. Not just the ministers, but even the Chief Minister also owes his position to her. Though she could not contest the election, her release could possibly result in a shakeup or in a realignment,” says Dr C Lakshmanan, Assistant professor at Madras Institute of Development Studies.

Be that as it may, the party now appears focussed on the present. The limelight on the foundation day was shared equally by EPS and OPS. The Chief Minister, still staying in his native place near Salem following his mother's demise, hoisted the party flag at Siluvampalayam while OPS led the party cadre and functionaries at the AIADMK headquarters in the city.

In an attempt to raise the morale of the party workers, OPS urged them to work for the party retaining power in the golden jubilee year as well. In a tweet as well as in a statement he said, “Let's create history by winning the elections in all the 234 constituencies.” A tall claim indeed, considering that the AIADMK had been in power for two terms consecutively and faces anti-incumbency.