Rajasthan Assembly Elections: A five-year saga of political shifts and challenges

The elections in Rajasthan will be held in a single phase on November 23. The Congress party is currently in power in the state with BJP as the main Opposition party.

Jaipur (Rajasthan):With Rajasthan going for the electoral battles on November 23, it will be a major test for not only for Congress but also for Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot who will have not only have to keep the factional problems within the party at bay but will have to equate serious issues like anti-incumbency law and order and women safety in the state. As we stand on the brink of another electoral battle in Rajasthan, it's essential to reflect on the significant political developments and challenges that have unfolded in the state over the past five years since the last assembly elections held in 2018.

The state has 5.20 crore in the state as the draft voters’ list has been published under the voter’s second special summary revision program. There has been a net increase of 4.22 lakh voters in Rajasthan. As per the draft publication of the voters’ list, there are 2.70 crore male voters in the state and 2.48 crore female voters. Apart from this, home voting will be conducted for persons with disabilities (PwDs) and elderly persons and webcasting will be conducted in more than 50% of the polling booths.

The 2018 Election Results: Winds of Change

The 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections marked a significant turning point in the state's political landscape. The results, declared on December 11, 2018, showcased a departure from the status quo. With the exception of the Ramgarh seat in Alwar, voting was held for the remaining 199 seats in the state assembly. The election on the Ramgarh seat had to be postponed due to the unfortunate demise of BSP candidate Laxman Singh. In this highly anticipated electoral battle, the Congress party emerged victorious, securing 99 seats and successfully dethroning the incumbent BJP government.

The electoral landscape witnessed Congress winning 99 seats, while the BJP secured 73 seats. Mayawati's BSP managed to secure six seats, while other parties won 20 seats. To form the government, Congress needed a minimum of 101 MLAs. The party managed to reach this critical threshold with the support of independent and other party MLAs, allowing them to return to power in the state.

The crucial decision regarding the leadership of the state was made through rigorous discussions among top party leaders, including the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Eventually, the reins of power were entrusted to Ashok Gehlot, who assumed the role of Chief Minister. This leadership transition was publicly marked by a symbolic photograph of party leaders captioned "United Colors of Rajasthan," symbolizing unity and solidarity among the party members. Furthermore, BSP and independent MLAs extended their support to the Congress, solidifying Gehlot's position as the Chief Minister.

The BSP Merger: A Political Twist

In September 2019, a significant political development occurred when all six Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLAs decided to join the ruling Congress party. This move, which had been in the works for some time, was formalized when the BSP MLAs sent a letter to Assembly Speaker C.P. Joshi, notifying him of the merger of their legislative party with the Congress. This shift in allegiance bolstered the Congress government's position and showcased the fluid nature of political alliances in Rajasthan.

The Pilot-Gehlot Rift: A Crisis Averted

However, the relative stability achieved through these mergers faced a severe challenge in July 2020. A rift within the Congress party became evident when 19 Congress MLAs, aligned with then Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot, moved to Delhi following disputes and differences with the Gehlot faction. Sachin Pilot claimed the support of a total of 30 MLAs, putting the Gehlot government in jeopardy.

A pivotal meeting took place between Sachin Pilot and the Congress high command, which included discussions with Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. Following these deliberations, Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot reconciled, reuniting the factions within the Rajasthan Congress. On August 14, 2020, the Ashok Gehlot-led government successfully won a trust vote in the Rajasthan Legislative Assembly by a voice vote, reaffirming their stability.

Rebellion Before the Elections: A Tense Moment

A year before the upcoming elections, Rajasthan's political landscape faced another upheaval. The Congress party's decision to consider a leadership change in the state triggered protests and threats of resignations from many Congress MLAs and their allies. These developments occurred simultaneously with Ashok Gehlot's preparations to file his nomination for the post of Congress President.

In a dramatic turn of events on the night of September 25, 2022, 82 MLAs from the Gehlot faction abruptly met Assembly Speaker CP Joshi and tendered their resignations. However, the Speaker did not accept these resignations. In response to the crisis, former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath was dispatched to Jaipur by Sonia Gandhi to engage in discussions with the MLAs.

Subsequently, on September 29, 2022, Ashok Gehlot decided not to contest the election for the position of Congress President, opting to remain in his role as Chief Minister of Rajasthan. This decision was reached following a crucial meeting with Sonia Gandhi, signifying the importance of his leadership in the upcoming assembly elections.

By-elections were also held in the state

By-elections were conducted in the state, with the ruling Congress maintaining its dominance. In April 2021, by-elections were held for the Sujangarh, Sahada, and Rajsamand seats, which had become vacant due to the respective MLAs' demise. The results saw Congress winning in Sahada and Sujangarh, while BJP secured victory in Rajsamand. Later in November 2021, elections were held for Vallabhnagar and Dhariyavad seats, both of which were won by the Congress, also due to the demise of the respective MLAs. In December of the same year, a by-election took place for the Sardarshahar assembly seat, which was won by Congress, with the vacancy arising from the passing of MLA Bhanwarlal Sharma. In February of the current year, the Udaipur seat became vacant when senior BJP leader Gulabchand Kataria resigned after being appointed the Governor of Assam.

What is the current composition of the assembly

The BJP initially held 77 seats, with the BSP securing six seats and 20 seats going to other parties. As of now, in the 200-member assembly, the Congress holds 108 seats, the BJP has 70, and there are 21 seats held by other parties. It's worth noting that the Udaipur seat became vacant in February of this year due to the resignation of senior BJP leader Gulabchand Kataria, who was appointed as the Governor of Assam.

Which issues will dominate this election, how is its preparation

The upcoming election is expected to revolve around key issues such as unemployment, crime rates, and the recent passage of the Right to Health Bill, which the government is touting as a historic achievement. With the deteriorating law and order situation in the state with cases of rape and molestation increasing in the state, the BJP has already started pinning the government on this issue. Now it will be interesting to see whether Ghelot can turn the wheel with his development and health schemes.

The government had previously implemented the Chiranjeevi Yojana, offering health insurance coverage of up to Rs 10 lakh. The election preparations of both Congress and BJP involve strengthening their organisations at the grassroots level. It is speculated that BJP may contest the elections with the face of Modi, while Congress continues to rely on Ashok Gehlot. Additionally, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will participate in the state assembly elections, with national convener Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann actively campaigning in the state.

Conclusion

It is evident that the state's political landscape has witnessed significant shifts and challenges over the past five years. The 2018 elections brought the Congress party back to power in Rajasthan, and the subsequent mergers and reconciliations have shaped the dynamics of the state's politics. The state is now poised for yet another electoral battle, with the political players preparing for a contest that will undoubtedly impact the future of Rajasthan's governance and leadership.