Mumbai-Konkan crucial for Sena; West Maharashtra holds key for Cong-NCP, BJP

Though the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance holds an edge over the Congress-NCP in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Northern Maharashtra; the neighbouring regions of Mumbai-Konkan and Western Maharashtra with 146 seats, are expected to be extremely decisive in determining who forms the next government in Maharashtra.

Hyderabad: With just four days left for the closing of the campaign in the state assembly election, Western Maharashtra is likely to prove to be the main battleground for the two opposing camps, namely BJP-Sena alliance and Congress-NCP. Mumbai-Konkan region, meanwhile, is going to be very vital for Shiv Sena. Even though BJP looks to have an upper hand in the rest of the state, a number of rebels may force the party to change its calculations till the last minute.

Strong Base

Traditionally, Western Maharashtra (comprising Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara, Pune, and Solapur) was seen to be the bastion of Congress and NCP, especially the latter. Out of the total 41 seats won by NCP in 2014 assembly elections, 19 had come from Western Maharashtra. In the 2019 election, it won four seats, out of which three are from this region.

Also, just to keep things in perspective, in 2014 assembly elections, the NCP had won only eight seats in Marathwada and Konkan each, while just one out of 71 in Vidarbha. The Congress, on the other hand, had won 10 each in Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha, while just 9 (out of 46) in Marathwada.

Western Maharashtra, with a fairly equitable distribution of land-holding, wide spread of irrigation facilities, good rainfall and comparative proximity to Pune and Mumbai has always been more prosperous than others. Ever since the times of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, who hailed from here and ruled this part of the state for most part of his life, the region has been politically more active and alert. Hence, it was perhaps not a mere coincidence that one of the strongest cooperative movements in the country emerged from here and is still going strong in the region.

(Funny as it may sound, but the largest number of textile cooperatives are in Western Maharashtra even though the area under cotton here is almost zero. The cotton mainly comes from Vidarbha and Gujarat.)

The Congress and, later the NCP, have very firm roots in this movement. They have received help from this and in turn the cooperative sugar factories, dairies etc have benefitted from them being in power. Maratha is a dominant caste here and Maratha pride was finely entwined with the Congress politics so far.

Despite its best efforts, BJP could not even make a dent into this bastion for a very long time. However, it all changed in the 2014 elections. A slow disintegration of the cooperative movement, strong anti-incumbency and Congress-NCP leadership's incapability to cater to the aspirations of the youth and the Modi wave contributed to the BJP's significant success in 2014 when, out of the total 71 seats, it won 24 (the highest till then). Shiv Sena, which was then fighting separately, got 13 seats.

Aiming High

Five years later, BJP and Shiv Sena are aiming even higher. With the help of the power both at the state and the Centre, the parties consolidated their positions substantially in municipal corporations and panchayat in the past five years. Many cooperative tzars were either won over, maimed or made to cross over. In the last six to eight months, the region saw a tsunami of sorts when almost anybody who was associated with the Congress and NCP made a beeline to the BJP and Sena. Major families and their large supporters migrated. Mohite-Patils of Solapur, Mahadiks of Kolhapur, Bhosales of Satara are just a few names among many. In the biggest blow, NCP even lost its senior MP Udayanraje Bhosale to the BJP.

The impact is seen everywhere. Parth Pawar, the grandson of Sharad Pawar and son of Ajit Pawar, lost the Lok Sabha election from Maval in Pune district. Both the Lok Sabha seats in Kolhapur went to Shiv Sena, which had never happened before in the history of the state.

This has buoyed their confidence. Today, BJP is fighting 31 and Shiv Sena 28 seats in the region and their success rate is likely to be very high. For example, in Satara district, BJP could not win a single seat in 2014 despite the Modi wave. This time, it is likely to win at least four. In Pune city, it is contesting all the eight seats (zero to Shiv Sena) and going by Lok Sabha statistics, it would not be surprising if they win them all.

Most of the BJP and Sena candidates in this region were in Congress and NCP till recently. And in most cases, the Congress-NCP candidates are none other than their friends, associates and relatives, who have stayed back in these parties. Hence, quite interestingly, in the campaigning, the candidates are hardly raising any issues of any corruption or inefficiency against each other. The main issue of contention is ideological. The Congress and NCP are reminding of the secular tradition to which the people of the region remain loyal to this day. So, in a way, it is this tradition which is at the test in this region.

Maratha Factor

The BJP, on the other hand, is banking heavily on its performance in the last five years. Successfully solving the problem of Maratha reservation is also likely to help them a lot. And very strategically, they changed their state party president last year and brought in a Maratha to that post from Kolhapur - Chandrakant Patil. He is also being subtly projected as a number two man in the cabinet.

Incidentally, Narendra Modi addressed two public meetings on Wednesday in two places namely Pune and Kolhapur. This shows how important Western Maharashtra is in BJP's scheme of things.

Hence, the BJP (together with Shiv Sena) has a clear goal. Western Maharashtra is the last remaining bastion of Congress-NCP. Dismantling it could prove to be a major step in attaining its objective of ‘Congress-Mukt Bharat’.

Oxygen named Mumbai

Mumbai has always been like Oxygen to Shiv Sena. As is known, Sena was formed to protect the interest of Marathi people in Mumbai and for very long, its politics remained restricted to Mumbai municipal corporation. It changed in the 1990s and Sena formed the government in the state in alliance with BJP in 1995. Today, after many setbacks, Sena is not what it was in say, 2000. Balasaheb is no more. Raj and many other major leaders have left. BJP has encroached many of the areas which were solely of the Sena till now. But despite this, Sena has shown strong resilience. And to its credit, even in the face of Modi wave, it could win 63 assembly seats in 2014.

In 2017, Shiv Sena faced its gravest challenge ever and almost lost its power in Mumbai Corporation to the BJP. Sena won 84 (out of 227), while the BJP was just behind it with 82 seats. Till the last election, the BJP used to be far behind the Sena. In 2012 BJP had won just 31 seats. Hence, this was a major blow to Sena.

Marathi Mumbai – thing of past

Several factors are responsible for this. One major one is that the share of Marathis, who form the backbone of Sena vote bank in Mumbai, has come down to just 22 per cent in the overall population of 1.30 crores. Next to it is 17 per cent population of Gujaratis who are invariably the supporters of the BJP. On this backdrop, Shiv Sena will have to rediscover itself.

Today, out of the 36 seats in Mumbai, Shiv Sena is contesting 19 and BJP 17. The NCP has no presence in the mega-city while, thanks to Dalit, Muslim and North Indians, the Congress has some existence. But Mumbai Congress is in complete disarray with its president Milind Deora having resigned and Sanjay Nirupam busy criticising his own partymen. So, the Shiv Sena will be heavily banking on Mumbai to get a large number of MLAs from the city.

Adjacent to Mumbai are the coastal districts of Konkan, where there are 39 seats. For about 200 years these coastal districts were like backyards of Mumbai as most of the workers in the erstwhile cotton mills came from these districts. In fact, every household has somebody working in Mumbai. From virtually every village, there used to be a direct ST Bus to Mumbai. With the advent of the Konkan railway, this has changed. But the close ties of Mumbai and Konkan continue.

Reflection of Mumbai

Therefore, it is no wonder that the political situation in Konkan always mirrors the situation in Mumbai. Hence, expectedly, Shiv Sena has an upper hand in all these districts. In fact, in Ratnagiri, it is contesting all the five seats leaving BJP nothing. While in Sindhudurg, it has “officially” fielded a Shiv Sena rebel against the BJP man. Clearly, Shiv Sena would like to achieve most from the Konkan. Congress and NCP have some pockets of its dedicated voters and both the parties are likely to give a good fight.

Mumbai and Konkan have 75 seats, which is the largest bloc in the state. Next to it is 71 seats from Western Maharashtra. These areas are adjacent and have many things in common. Both these regions put together have 146 seats and hence will almost be decisive in how the next composition of party position will be on the evening of 24th October 2019. Incidentally, in rest of Maharashtra, the battle is likely to be on expected lines. For example, in Vidarbha, the BJP had won 44 out of 62 seats in 2014. The figures this time round may change but a change in the trend is unlikely. Similarly in Marathwada and North Maharashtra, the BJP and Shiv Sena have an edge over the Congress and NCP.

Hence, what remains to be seen is how both these camps perform in Western Maharashtra and Mumbai-Konkan.

Read: Cong raising local issues, BJP just whipping up sentiments: Prithviraj Chavan