Two birds with a stone: What's behind PM Modi's Yadav outreach before LS polls? Will it pay off?

Ignoring Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who leaves a legacy of a party loyalist, who transformed MP from a BIMARU state to one with a GDP of Rs 13,22,000, was probably the hardest task for the BJP. The BJP gambled keeping in mind the caste equation in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The saffron party, which sets its sights on 2024c Lok Sabha Polls, primarily targets Yadav vote banks in two states.

Sagar: The BJP's choice of Mohan Yadav as Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh might have come as a surprise to all and sundry but the decision, which had a stamp of approval from no other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, came not as a move made in a hurry but keeping in mind Bihar elections.
It was a hard and possibly toughest choice for the BJP to ignore Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Madhya Pradesh's longest-serving BJP CM in any state ruled by the party. On Tuesday, the Congress took a dig at the BJP for naming Mohan Yadav as Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, alleging that there are many serious allegations against him, including large-scale manipulation in the Ujjain masterplan.

Taking a dig at the saffron party, the Congress asked if this was Prime Minister 'Narendra Modi's guarantee' for the state. Congress General Secretary Jairam Ramesh was quick to mock at the saffron party in a post on X. "Eight days after the election results, the BJP elected the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, a person against whom there are many serious allegations including large-scale manipulation in the Ujjain masterplan, he wrote.

The decision to leave out Chouhan surprised all and sundry as he leaves a legacy of a party loyalist who transformed MP from a BIMARU state to one with a GDP of Rs 13,22,000. He was at the helm for sixteen and half years spanning four terms in the top post. Besides, Chouhan was a five-time MP. According to poll analyst Jagdeep Singh Bais, the BJP's decision to pick up three unknown faces speaks volumes about its long-term plans. "Three unexpected party men in three winning states can be gambling for the BJP but the party has a reason to justify the decision. The decisions had the stamp of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who must have set his eyes on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The faces have been selected keeping the Lok Sabha elections in mind. Mohan Yadav became the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh keeping in mind the potential Yadav support base in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. This decision is an attempt by the BJP to weaken the SP and BSP vote bank in Uttar Pradesh and JD(U) and RJD vote bank in Bihar," Bais said.

When BJP announced Mohan Yadav as the Chief Minister, keeping aside all the conjectures, there was pervading silence among Chouhan's followers. Despite the presence of many veterans, relatively less experienced Yadav was chosen for the hot seat.
According to poll analysts, the decision is a well-thought-out one with an eye on the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The timing is crucial especially when the INDIA alliance has already raised the issue of caste census issue. The BJP fears that this issue can harm the party's poll prospects in Hindi-speaking states which are considered to be the strongholds of the BJP.

In such a situation, the BJP must woo the big vote bank of OBCs and Yadavs who are in large numbers in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and almost every Hindi-speaking state. The BJP realises the mistake of ignoring the Yadavs past and the step has angered a large vote bank. Prahlad Patel's name was also doing the rounds for the post of Chief Minister. Such speculation got credence when he was asked to relinquish the chair of the Union Cabinet and contest the assembly elections.

After the formation of the BJP government, Patel was seen as the frontrunner for the post of Chief Minister. But Prahlad Patel was made to sit out and Mohan Yadav was picked up. The BJP's move came even though the Lodhi vote bank, which is considered a dedicated vote bank of the BJP, may get angry with the BJP. Uma Bharti, who was seen as a big Lodhi face, is already marginalised. Ignoring Prahlad Patel can increase the resentment among the Lodhi caste.

The BJP's Yadav outreach
Through the decision, the BJP's top brass particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to tap the Yadav vote bank, which forms the core of the big OBC vote bank in Hindi-speaking states. The direct impact at the national level can be the weakening of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and RJD in Bihar. The major support base of both these parties is the vote bank of Yadavs. Through this decision, the BJP will try its best to dent the caste support base of SP and RJD and weaken the issue of caste census, political observers said.

Targeting Samajwadi Party's support base in UP

In Uttar Pradesh politics, the Samajwadi Party is known for its politics based on Yadavs and Muslims. The Muslim vote bank sometimes shifts towards Congress and BSP as per convenience though the Yadav vote bank goes to SP in Uttar Pradesh. According to estimates, out of the 24 crore population, Yadavs comprise about 10 per cent. The vote bank of the Yadav caste plays an important role in influencing the elections in about 50 districts of the state. In the last assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party garnered about 85 per cent of the Yadav vote bank in Uttar Pradesh. The ascension of Mohan Yadav is expected to send a message that Yadavs are on the BJP's welfare radar.

Yadavs form a major vote bank in Bihar

Yadav vote bank is even stronger in Bihar as compared to Uttar Pradesh. In the recently conducted caste census, the Yadav caste has emerged as the largest caste among OBCs. According to the caste census data, the Yadav caste has more than 14 per cent vote bank in Bihar. Mohan Yadav's rise can help BJP consolidate the Yadav vote bank in Bihar.

OBC Lodhis angry with the decision

The BJP's decision may backfire as it did not go down well with Lodhis in Madhya Pradesh. They did not want to see their leader Uma Bharti, who is the tallest Lodhi leader of the Lodhi community after Kalyan Singh, sit out.
Bharti, who played an important role in increasing the support base of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, was not even made the star campaigner in the Madhya Pradesh elections. On the other hand, the way Union Minister Prahlad Patel was made to contest assembly elections from Narsinghpur and then asked to resign from the post of minister and MP angered Lodhis. Lodhi vote bank is big in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.