From Sabarimala To Community Equations: The poll strategies that Kerala dismissed

Kerala went to the polls on April 6 amid the COVID pandemic regulations. On May 2, the results were announced, shattering all hopes of the BJP and the UDF. The LDF created history by breaking the cyclical pattern of Assembly victories in the State since the beginning of electoral politics. It is evident that the people of Kerala voted for development, social welfare and pensions, besides COVID management.

Hyderabad:The Supreme Court’s verdict allowing women of all ages to enter Sabarimala temple for worship, and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) Government’s approach in implementing the verdict had become a major discussion in Kerala during the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

The LDF, however, did not calculate these discussions to cause an undercurrent during the polls.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had held massive statewide protests and rallies by bringing women to the streets against women entry at Sabarimala, was very hopeful about the elections.

In a twist, when the results were declared after the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) won 19 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala.

The LDF leaders were stunned at the unexpected defeat they suffered even in the Left fortresses. All hopes of the BJP, while holding on to Sabarimala as a poll plank, were also in vain.

Cut to Kerala local body elections in December 2020

The BJP and the UDF held on to the Sabarimala women entry more intensely and tried to fight between them to make it their poll plank in Kerala.

Both the parties attacked the LDF Government’s actions in implementing the SC verdict on women entry and alleged that it was against the interests of the believers during their campaigns.

This time, the Sabarimala strategy didn’t work well for the UDF and the BJP. The LDF continued to get the upper hand as it always had in the civic body polls in the State.

The Left could also make tremendous advances in the urban areas. The UDF did not take this victory seriously as they thought its all usual when it comes to local body polls.

In three months, the State was to go to the polls for Assembly elections 2021.

Sabarimala poll plank did not translate into votes

The LDF released their election manifesto highlighting the development projects, social welfare initiatives, pension and efficiency in governance, and started seeking votes for a second consecutive term. The CPM and the LDF tried their maximum to avoid any discussions around Sabarimala women entry.

Quickly realising that the talks on dialectical materialism that surfaced in the CPIM could be detrimental as the State headed polls, the party and the LDF ended it all soon.

The focus was drawn to the achievements and welfare activities carried out during the Pinaryi government in the first term.

Nevertheless, the UDF was hopeful of a sweeping victory as a continuity to the earlier Lok Sabha polls.

Dreaming of such a success in the Assembly polls, the UDF released their poll manifesto with ‘a draft bill of a proposed law against Sabarimala women entry’ as if promising to protect the customs and to thus lure the voters.

The BJP went one step further ahead. Besides legislation against women entry at Sabarimala, the BJP promised to make a law against ‘love jihad’ also in their manifesto.

With these promises, the BJP and the UDF were fully hopeful of winning the elections as they were sure that the people’s verdict in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls reflected the Sabarimala issue.

Kerala went to the polls on April 6 amid the COVID pandemic regulations. On May 2, the results were announced, shattering all hopes of the BJP and the UDF.

The LDF created history by breaking the cyclical pattern of Assembly victories in the State since the beginning of electoral politics.

The Left Government rose to power for the second consecutive term with a whopping 99 seats in the Assembly out of the total 140.

It is evident that the people of Kerala voted for development, social welfare and pensions, besides COVID management.

The people’s ‘right distance’

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had said Sabarimala Ayyappan and all the gods and goddesses are with the LDF, that too on April 6, the poll day. The CM was addressing the media persons after casting his vote at Pinarayi Amala School. But, that was actually a response to an earlier statement by NSS general secretary G Sukumaran Nair.

The CM’s statement on the poll day was dissected and discussed in different ways.

Sukumaran Nair had sought the people of Kerala to vote to protect faith and urged for a change in governance, presenting it as the NSS’s stand. Pinarayi Vijayan’s statement was a reaction to this statement.

After the UDF’s tremendous victory in Lok Sabha polls 2019, the NSS had started actively involving in the politics of Kerala.

The ‘protection of faith’ was their main agenda. However, the LDF winning the by-elections, after the Lok Sabha polls, in Konni and Vattiyoorkavu seats where the NSS is highly influential, was not taken seriously by the Nair community organisation.

The NSS had changed from its earlier stand of ‘equidistance’ during the previous Assembly election and had publicly urged for a change in governance this time. This was termed as the ‘right distance’ by Sukumaran Nair.

CPM state secretary in charge A Vijayaraghavan and CPI state secretary Kanam Rajendran did not submit to these strategies by Nair.

Many a time, direct conflicts were there in the public arena between the two communist state secretaries and the NSS.

The political lesson from this election could also be that the Nair community need not necessarily approve the NSS general secretary’s stand and subscribe to it.

This is evident from the LDF’s victory in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Kottayam constituencies where the NSS is highly influential.

People decided on where to keep the 'right distance'. SNDP general secretary Vellappalli Nateshan had learnt this lesson a few years ago.

Vellappally observes caution

SNDP general secretary Vellappally Nateshan refrained from public statements and addresses during the assembly elections this time, perhaps taking a cue from his earlier experiences of having erred in his stands.

His only wish was to field an Ezhava candidate at the Kuttanad constituency. However, the LDF did not consider that at face value.

The BDJS party, led by his son Tushar Vellappally, which had contested as an ally with the BJP led - National Democratic Alliance (NDA) representing the Ezhava community, had failed miserably in the polls.

The BDJS could not even maintain their earlier vote share in most of the seats where they had fielded candidates.

The BJP leaders had publicly stated that the BDJS’s performance was pathetic.

This indicates that the party’s existence, as it is and within the NDA, would be at stake considering its performance in the elections.

The Churches’ dream of blooming lotus

Unlike in the previous years, Kerala had witnessed the Christian Churches trying to join hands with the Bharathiya Janata Party in the State during the Assembly elections.

The Church heads reached the BJP as a last resort, after failing to settle the long-drawn conflict between the Jacobites and Orthodox Churches claiming right over Churches, even after Court interventions.

The Church heads, who had directly approached the national leadership of the BJP seeking help in resolving the issue, had also met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Union Minister Amit Shah.

The Churches had trusted the BJP to a large extent until the polls. Even though there were many Court verdicts on the Orthodox- Jacobite Church conflict, the State Governments which alternated in Kerala had not tried to implement these orders considering the believers’ emotions.

However, when the Courts took a strong stand the District administration and the Police had to seize the Churches and had tried to implement the Court order.

All these moves had agitated the conflicting Christians and had always caused an anti-incumbency attitude among them.

The political parties were apprehensive about the Christian votes in Thrissur, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts.

It was into this space that the BJP came up with their attempts for peace talks and promises on resolving the Church conflict.

It is to be assumed that these tactics were also in vain going by the results.