Reasons behind BJPs defeat in Jharkhand Assembly Polls 2019

The BJP has suffered loss in Jharkhand at a time when it has been successful in fulfilling its longstanding ideological promises, including modification of Article 370, criminalising the practice of triple talaq and enacting Citizenship Amendment Act. The Supreme Court's verdict in favour of building a Ram Temple in Ayodhaya was also a big boost to the BJP. Top party leaders in election rallies spoke at length about these "achievements" under the Modi government but the voters chose local issues over national ones in state elections.

Hyderabad: With Jharkhand joining the growing list of states slipping out of BJP's rule, the party now governs a mere 35 per cent of the country's landmass in comparison to over 71 per cent during its peak in 2017 when it was in power in the entire Hindi-speaking heartland.

Its string of losses in states despite the massive victory in the April-May Lok Sabha elections may force the party's top brass to revisit its strategy for the assembly polls as it prepares for the upcoming battles in Delhi and Bihar.

The percentage of population being governed by the BJP in the states, either on its own or with its allies, now stands at around 43 per cent from over 69 per cent two years back, data analysis show.

Reasons for BJP losing the Jharkhand Assembly Election

370, Mandir' vs Local Issues
Maharashtra and Haryana elections showed that voters chose local issues over national ones in state elections. Jharkhand elections seems to have followed the pattern. While BJP's star campaigners like PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Yogi Aditynath talked about issues like Article 370, Ram Temple Verdict or Citizenship Act in their rallies, it seems the issues did not excite the voters enough for them to give BJP a majority in the state.

ARROGANCE OF RAGHUBAR DAS
Raghubar Das had been in power earlier too as a minister in previous BJP government and had been winning his Jamshedpur East constituency consistently. But when he was hand-picked by Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo in 2014, he got a booster dose but people in Jharkhand complained: "power got to his head".

Even the BJP leaders in Jharkhand agree that Raghubar Das's image of a "rude" politician hurt the party in the state. The videos showing Raghubar Das yelling at commoners and officials have gone viral on many occasions in the past five years. One of such videos, showed a gaffe where Raghubar Das was heard saying "Jharkhand will be the first adivasi-mukt state".

UNITED OPPOSITION
After facing and defeating a fractured opposition 2014, BJP had to face a united front this time as the major opposition parties– Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress and Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) - formed an alliance. This made the Jharkhand elections a direct contest between the BJP and the Alliance. In 2014, the combined vote share of Congress and JMM was higher than the BJP-AJSU election in as many as 14 seats. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) and 'frenemy' AJSU also cut into BJP's vote share in many seats. All this meant that despite increasing their vote share (from 31.26% in 2014), BJP lost the close contests in many seats.

TRIBAL ANGER
Jharkhand was created as a tribal state in 2000 after a very long agitation by leaders like Shibu Soren, the father of chief ministerial aspirant Hemant Soren and the founder of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.

Though tribal vote share is less than one-third, Jharkhand emotionally remains a tribal state, where the image of Raghubar Das government became of one government that is anti-tribal in nature.

In 2014, the BJP-led alliance had won 13 out of 28 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe candidates. Even in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP won three of the five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in Jharkhand. However, two of these victories came with very slim margins.

This time around, the JMM won more than 20 of these seats - a clear case of tribals moving from the BJP camp to the JMM side.The amendment to the land acquisition law was seen as tribals as an assault on their rights by the BJP government. Creation of land banks confounded the tribal voters further.

Pathalgadi movement was another issue that hurt the BJP in Jharkhand. This was an expression that demanded that the rights of tribals must be recognised by the government of the day. The BJP was seen acting against the tribal sentiment. The anti-conversion bill was another troubling aspect. The tribal Christians, who had voted for the BJP-AJSU alliance in 2014 saw the anti-conversion bill as a move to target them.

IGNORING ALLIES

This was the first state election since the creation of Jharkhand in 2000 that the BJP contested the polls alone. It junked its oldest ally in the state, the All Jharkhand Students Union Party, whose Sudesh Mahto tried till the very last moment to have a pre-poll tie-up with the BJP.

The BJP leadership, then smarting under the Maharashtra experience of having been "ditched" by 35-year-old ally Shiv Sena, decided to go solo in Jharkhand. The party, however, did not put up its candidate against Sudesh Mahto at Silli seat in Ranchi.
The trend from the counting of votes in Jharkhand shows that the BJP would have been in advantageous position had it conceded to demands by the AJSU in the assembly election. The BJP has improved its own vote share but it was in the fray against a combined Opposition grand-alliance of the JMM, the Congress and the RJD.

The counting of votes is still in progress but trends suggest that the BJP-AJSU combined would have won 42-43 per cent votes compared to around 36 per cent votes by the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance.

A party or an alliance needs to secure at least 41 seats in Jharkhand to earn a majority in the 81-member house. No single party looks to win majority in Jharkhand with the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance hovering in the striking zone.

The grand-alliance should be forming the government in Jharkhand if Maharashtra syndrome does not afflict one of the constituents of the coalition over some issue. One BJP spokesperson, on media channel, sought to know what is the "sanctity of pre-poll alliance" after having seen what happened in Maharashtra.

The BJP had won 37 seats in 2014 while its ally AJSUP five. Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) of Babulal Marandi had won eight, six of whom joined the BJP post-election. The JMM had won 19, the Congress six while the RJD had failed to open its account.

Anti-Incumbency: While the Raghubar Das-led BJP government became the first to complete the full five-year term, it also had to fight the five years of anti-incumbency in the state. While the stability was a positive factor in favour of the BJP, some of the decisions taken by the Das government were not too popular. Das is not a very popular leader himself which is evident from his performance in his Jamshedpur East constituency.

LYNCHING
Attacks on Muslims and Dalits by vigilante groups also played a role in changing the narrative against the BJP, whose government was seen not doing enough to ensure safety and security of the vulnerable groups. In past five years, such images have come in plenty from Jharkhand.

There have been more than 20 lynching deaths in Jharkhand in the last two years only. At least 11 of these victims were Muslims, most of whom were targeted by cow vigilante groups.

Five lynching victims were Hindus, who were killed over rumours of child lifting. And, two were tribal Christians, who were targeted for allegedly carrying and consuming beef.

The BJP government was not seen as taking adequate action to rein in the lynch mob, who often shouted slogans commonly identified with the Hindutva agenda. Former Union minister Jayant Sinha's garlanding of eight people convicted in a lynching case was a "proof" to many that the BJP cared little about lynch mobs.

Moreover, the Jharkhand Assembly election was held while the image of the lynching of Tabrez Ansari was still afresh. The video of the lynching had gone viral.

BJP NO LONGER 'DIFFERENT'

There was a time when the BJP claimed it was the "party with a difference". This claim gave people an impression that the BJP would adopt a no-nonsensical approach towards corruption for political gains.

In Jharkhand, where the BJP's Raghubar Das became the first chief minister to complete his full term, the ruling party made too many compromises and ignored serious charges against its candidates just ahead of election.

The BJP fielded Shashi Bhushan Mehta, who joined the party after quitting the JMM, from Panki. He is facing trial in a murder case. Shashi Bhushan Mehta is accused of killing a teacher working in his school.

Independent MLA Bhanu Pratap Shahi, who joined the BJP on the eve of Jharkhand Assembly election, faces corruption cases. He is an accused in Rs 130-crore medicine scam. The BJP fielded Bhanu Pratap Shahi from Bhavnathpur.

Another tainted leader Dhullu Mahato, the sitting BJP MLA from Baghmara got party nomination. He is facing several cases. The BJP's claim that it fights corruption lies exposed in Jharkhand.