Gujarat polls: Saurashtra region holds key to Government formation in 2022 elections

All eyes are on the strategies being formulated by the ruling BJP to gain foothold in Saurashtra region, which has 48 seats in the 182-member Sujarat State Assembly. Congress won 30 out of 48 seats in 2017, mostly in rural areas while BJP got just 18. AAP's entry is expected to trigger triangular fights in most segments, especially in urban areas.

Junagadh (Gujarat): With Gujarat elections fast approaching, all eyes are on the strategies being formulated by the ruling BJP to gain some foothold in the Saurashtra region, which has 48 seats in the 182-member State Assembly. As the Congress still has strong roots in Saurashtra, it is going to be a uphill task for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in its bid to win 2022 polls in order to sustain its 27-year long rule in Gujarat.

In 2017 Assembly polls, Congress won 30 out of the total 48 seats in Saurashtra while the ruling BJP was restricted to just 18. In the coming election, the BJP has to face the anti-incumbency wave in the upcoming election in which no party can form the government without winning majority out of the total 48 seats in Saurashtra. Against this backdrop, all the parties are giving additional attention to this region. This time, the BJP is focusing on winning more seats in Saurashtra so as to achieve its ambitious target of bagging 150 out of total 182 seats.

In a short span, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as a strong third alternative in Saurashtra. Political speculation is rife that APP's entry will greatly embarrass the BJP to a large extent, triggering triangular fights some of them intense in Saurashtra zone. As per the latest voter lists released by the Election Commission, there are 1,12,28,209 voters spread over 11 districts of Saurashtra.

Some sections in parts of Saurashtra, mainly Rajkot, are upset with the BJP after Vijay Rupani had to resign from the post of Chief Minister. Late, PM Modi has held a meeting in Jamkandorana so that the vote bank of Rajkot residents and Saurashtra is not broken. The BJP is attracting Congress leaders and its MLAs to increase its support base. Recently Congress MLA from Visavadar seat Harshad Ribadiya joined the BJP.

The BJP is also facing the problem of factionalism this time even in urban Saurashtra where its candidates won most seats in 2017 thanks to support from educated sections. Rural voters are mostly neutral and the Congress re-established a strong grip in villages but lost considerable ground in urban assembly seats.

In 2017, BJP failed to win a single seat in Amreli, Morbi and Somnath districts. BJP won only one (Keshod seat) out of the 5 segments in Junagadh region. In Porbandar and Botad districts, BJP and Congress candidates have won one seat each. The BJP won 6 out of 8 seats in Rajkot and 6 out of 7 seats in Bhavnagar city. Many Chief Ministers like Jivraj Mehta to Keshubhai Patelm and Vijay Rupani have come from Saurashtra. It should also be remembered that the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi also went to the Legislative Assembly after being elected as an MLA from Rajkot in Saurashtra.

The Patidar and Koli voters decide election outcomes in 18 and 10 seats respectively. Rajkot, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Amreli and Morbi districts are strongholds for Leuva Patidar voters. Koli voters are an influential factor in four assembly seats in Gir Somnath district. Porbandar and Kutiyana assembly seats in Porbandar district are dominated by Mers caste. MLAs from Mers caste are winning in both the seats for the past several years. Koli voters decide election in Jasdan while Muslim voters dominate in Wankaner. Kshatriya Rajput and Garasia Darbar are deciding factor in Bhavnagar and Surendranagar districts.

Morbi, Tankara, Visavdar, Rajkot East, Gondal, Dhoraji, Kalavd, Manavdar, Jamjodhpur, Jetpur, Amreli, Lathi, Gariyadhar, Dhari, Savarkundla and Botad seats have Patel majority electorates. On the other hand, Koli voters are in majority in Bhavnagar Gramya, Palitana, Talaja, Mahuwa, Rajula, Una, Talala, Somnath, Keshod and Jasdan. Besides the community factor, the voters' reaction to burning problems like price rise is going to change electoral prospects of contesting candidates in this election.

Speaking ETV Bharat, political expert Karthikbhai Upadhyay said, 'Inflation, unemployment, farmers' issues and problems of government employees will definitely be seen on the day of polling. The ever-increasing inflation is breaking the back of the poor and the middle class. Both the state and central government have failed to control it. If the ruling party is counting on winning the election on the strength of Hindutva alone, it would be difficult.'

Meanwhile, senior journalist Dhiru Purohit of Junagadh said, 'For the first time in the state assembly elections, there is going to be a triangle war in all the seats. Due to which, BJP and Congress have been forced to change their election strategy and candidates. It is difficult to say how many seats AAP can win, but it is for sure BJP and Congress candidates will have to sweat it out.'