Analysis: How BJP managed to sweep Gujarat by-polls

In the by-elections for eight seats of Gujarat Assembly, the BJP won all 8 seats and wiped out the Congress party completely. According to the exit polls, Congress was supposed to win at least three seats, but in the end, exit polls were proved wrong. Voters have given the BJP a mandate and with all eight seats in the account, the BJP is now having a total of 111 seats in the Gujarat Assembly, while the Congress is reduced to 65. ETV Bharat analyses how BJP won eight seats and how voters' minds have changed. Voters have accepted defectors, BJP's booth management has been successful, and the army of BJP workers has ravaged the Congress strongholds.

Ahmedabad:Gujarat's Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and new BJP state president CR Patil, had formulated a strategy to win the by-elections of all 8 seats. Patil has succeeded in controlling BJP worker's dissatisfaction, as the results show.

It is difficult to know the minds of the voters

It was believed that the Gujarat voters generally do not accept defectors, but that was proved wrong. While eight Congress MLAs resigned, five joined the BJP, and all five got tickets to fought elections and all five won. The defectors have been accepted by voters - it can be said; however, the win does not justify defection. It is tantamount to betraying the voters.

The Congress tried hard to teach a lesson to the traitorous MLAs

In the 2017 Assembly elections, all these eight seats were won by the Congress. That stronghold of the Congress has been demolished by the BJP now. It was believed that voters would teach the lesson for the betrayal, but the BJP managed everything and could convince the voters that if they want development, they must vote for the BJP; if Hindutva ideology is to be followed, then the BJP is a must; only the BJP could take a tough decision like Article 370. It can be said that the BJP finally made a dent in the Congress stronghold.

Will Hardik Patel take the blame for defeat?

In the five seats where the BJP fielded the defected Congress candidates, the party campaigned vigorously. The new Vice President of the Congress, Hardik Patel, campaigned against them by highlighting their betrayal. However, it had no impact on the voters. For Congress, the result is shocking. Hardik Patel even could not get the Patidar votes in these eight seats, so the blame will be on him, it is believed.

It was a battle of prestige for the BJP and the Congress

The results of the eight seats were not going to make much change. But it was the battle for prestige, especially for the newly appointed BJP's state president CR Patil. To win all the eight seats, he extensively toured Saurashtra and North Gujarat. He made it a matter of prestige. On the other hand, Congress had to win all 8 seats, as these were the party’s stronghold. That is why the byelections had become a battle of prestige for both the BJP and the Congress.

The BJP deployed an army of workers

The secret behind BJP's success is booth management. The party fielded a large army of its workers in all the eight seats, and campaigned at booth level and house to house. BJP party workers spread out for campaigning in the Congress stronghold and changed the minds and ideologies of the Congress voters.

PM Narendra Modi's two-day Gujarat tour turned into poll campaign!

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being credited for the BJP's victory. PM Modi was on a visit to the Statue of Unity in Gujarat on 30-31 October. He inaugurated 32 projects in Kevadia, took part in Ekta parade on October 31, and boarded a sea plane from Kevadia to Ahmedabad. Meanwhile, before reaching Kevadia, he also visited the grieving families of former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel and (Mahesh – Naresh) Kanodiya brothers, who passed away. PM Modi visited the families to offer condolences. These gestured appealed to the people of Gujarat and once again reinforced the image that, even though he is in Delhi, he is still with Gujarat.

Results shock political pundits

The results have surprised and came as a shock to most of the analysts as such one-sided results were not expected. No political pundits predicted one-sided win for BJP. It was the first election after COVID-19 and lockdown, and despite all the hardship voters remained pro-BJP. Voters didn’t punish the BJP and even accepted the candidates who had betrayed the trust of the people.

Detailed result for each of the 8 seats is as below:

1. Morbi

The counting for the Morbi Malia Assembly by-election was held in 35 rounds at the Polytechnic College in Morbi. In the first round, BJP candidate Brijesh Merja was ahead, but then Congress candidate Jayantibhai Patel continued to lead up to 14 rounds. However, after the 15th round, the BJP candidate narrowed the margin and by the 22nd rounds was in the lead again. In between at one stage it seemed that the Congress candidate would go ahead, but finally, BJP candidate Brijesh Merja emerged victoriously. He got 64,711 votes, while Jayanti Patel got 60,062 votes, thus Merja won by a lead of 4,649 votes.

2. Karjan

Akshay Patel won the Karjan seat by more than 16,000 votes. He took the lead in the first round, which lasted till the last round. The NOTA votes were third highest with 2283 votes, while the remaining seven candidates could not get as many votes as NOTA's total votes. BJP's Akshay Patel got 76,831 votes, while Congress candidate Kiritsinh managed only 60,422.

3. Dang

BJP candidate Vijay Patel won the seat with the highest margin of 60,095 votes. He got a total of 94,006 votes, while Congress candidate Suryakant Gavit managed only 33,911 votes. Dang has been a Congress stronghold for the last many years, but BJP wrested it from Congress, an outcome which no political pundits would have imagined.

4. Abadasa

BJP candidate Pradyumansinh Jadeja won the Abadsa seat by 36,778 votes. He got a total of 71,848 votes, while Dr. Shantilal Sanghani of Congress got 35,070 votes. Here an independent candidate Hanif Padhiar got 26,463 votes and dashed the hope of the Congress.

5. Kaparada

Kaparada seat witnessed the highest turnout of 77.55 percent. A total of 1,91,413 votes were cast. The counting took place in 27 rounds. BJP candidate Jitubhai Chaudhary got 1,12,941 votes, while Congress candidate Babubhai Vartha got 65,875 votes. 4,520 people chose NOTA. In the end, Jitubhai Chaudhary won with a margin of 47,066 votes.

6. Limbadi

BJP candidate Kiritsinh Rana won the Limbdi seat by the margin of 32,050 votes. Rana had lost the 2017 assembly elections against the Congress candidate Somabhai Gandabhai, who betrayed the party and people and resigned. As he didn’t join the BJP, the party again gave a ticket to Rana for the byelection. Rana got a total of 88,928 votes, while young Congress candidate Chetan Khachar got 56,878 votes. Thus, BJP won with a margin of 32,050.

7. Gadhada

Out of a total of 2,51,016 registered voters in Gadhada constituency, 1,28,223 voted and out of that BJP candidate Atmaram Parmar got 71,912 votes, while Congress candidate Mohanbhai Solanki got 48,617 votes. NOTA was at 3,119 votes. In the final result, BJP's Parmar won by 23,295 votes.

8. Dhari

In the Dhari constituency after 29 rounds of counting, BJP's JV Kakadia got a total of 49,974 votes, while Congress candidate Suresh Kotadia managed 32,765 votes. Thus BJP's JV Kakadia won with 17,209 votes.