Explainer: Post G20 summit, India faces fresh diplomatic challenges

After successfully hosting the G20 Summit last month, India is now facing a fresh set of bilateral diplomatic challenges. While Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that India had a hand in the killing of a Khalistani separatist in Canada, New Delhi-backed Armenia lost the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the war against Azerbaijan while in neighbouring Maldives, the pro-China opposition candidate won the presidential election defeating the pro-India incumbent. ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan writes why India’s diplomatic efforts will be tested in the days to come.

New Delhi: After successfully hosting the G20 Summit in New Delhi last month, India is suddenly facing a fresh set of bilateral diplomatic challenges extending from its neighbourhood to across the world.

First came the explosive allegation by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that India had a hand in the killing of one of its citizens, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a wanted Khalistani separatist, earlier this year. Trudeau made this allegation on the floor of the Canada’s House of Commons on September 18 soon after returning from New Delhi after attending the G20 Summit.

Trudeau’s trip to New Delhi itself was a disaster. Of all the world leaders with whom he held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reserved his most acerbic comments for the Canadian Prime Minister due to Ottawa’s support to Khalistani extremists.

Along with Trudeau’s allegation, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly announced the expulsion of a senior Indian diplomat posted in Canada and, in violation of diplomatic protocols, also revealed the name of the diplomat. In a tit-for-tat move, the Ministry of External Affairs summoned Canadian High Commissioner to India Cameron Mackay and ordered the expulsion of a senior Canadian diplomat posted in New Delhi.

New Delhi has dismissed Trudeau’s allegations as “absurd and motivated”. “Such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement. “The inaction of the Canadian government on this matter has been a long-standing and continuing concern. That Canadian political figures have openly expressed sympathy for such elements remains a matter of deep concern.”

On June 19, 45-year-old Nijjar, a leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and head of the Canadian arm of the proscribed Sikhs for Justice (SFJ), was shot dead in the parking lot of a gurdwara at Surrey in Vancouver, Canada.

A native of Harsinghpur in Jalandhar district of Punjab, Nijjar reportedly worked as a plumber in Surrey, Canada. He was elected to head the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey, Canada. He had visited Pakistan in 2013-14 to meet with Jagtar Singh Tara of KTF, who was arrested from Thailand in 2015, and Pakistan’s ISI. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) had designated Nijjar as a terrorist under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act in 2020 and had put a reward of Rs 10 lakh on his head.

Since Trudeau made his allegation, India has also suspended visa services for all Canadian citizens citing safety of its diplomats in the Indian missions in Canada. This apart, India has ordered the expulsion of 41 more Canadian diplomats from India by October 10 saying that there should be parity in the number of diplomats in both the countries.

Following this, Canada has now sought “private talks” with India to resolve the diplomatic row. "We are in contact with the Government of India,” Foreign Minister Joly was quoted as saying by the Global News. “We take Canadian diplomats’ safety very seriously, and we will continue to engage privately because we think that diplomatic conversations are best when they remain private.”

The ties between India and Canada were going downhill was also evident from the fact that Trudeau’s explosive allegation was preceded by the pausing of trade talks between the two countries. In early September, the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) talks were suspended. The EPTA was a first step towards a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada.

Reports suggest that India decided to pause the trade talks because Canada is allowing its land to be used by subversive elements. Since India’s imports from Canada can be substituted from any other friendly country, New Delhi does not have to rely solely on Ottawa for key commodities. According to industry estimates, the CEPA could have boosted India-Canada bilateral trade by as much as $6.5 billion, yielding a GDP gain of $3.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Canada by 2035.

Even as the India-Canada row persisted, New Delhi suffered another diplomatic jolt when Armenia lost the region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the war against Azerbaijan. The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the South Caucasus, to Azerbaijan in the last week of September will be a cause of concern for India. New Delhi has been supporting Armenia in its war against Azerbaijan over the disputed region all this while.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been involved in an ethnic and territorial conflict for over three decades now over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a sudden military offensive. The very next day, the government of Nagorno-Karabakh, officially the Republic of Artsakh, a de-facto independent country, agreed to disarm, which led to a ceasefire. On September 28, Artsakh president Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree stating that all state institutions would be dissolved by January 1, 2024, bringing the existence of the republic to an end.

Though India maintains friendly bilateral relations with both the Central Asian nations, it is Armenia that India has backed during the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. New Delhi has openly positioned itself on the side of Yerevan by supplying military hardware. According to reports, India supplied Armenia with Swathi weapons-locating radar. Last year, India and Armenia signed a $250-million agreement under which New Delhi supplied Yerevan with indigenously developed multi-barrel Pinaka launchers, anti-tank rockets, and other range of ammunitions.

One of the reasons India has been supporting Armenia is that New Delhi is concerned about Turkey’s imperial ambition of creating a pan-Turkic empire that will cover the Caucasus and parts of Eurasia. It envisions an empire that will comprise all nations and regions where a Turkic type of language is spoken. India has decided to oppose Azerbaijan and its allies, Pakistan and Turkey, and Turkey’s expansionist plans.

As an ally of Azerbaijan, Pakistan has supplied men and military to the Central Asian nation to assist in its conflicts. Azerbaijan has reciprocated by offering Pakistan geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic benefits.

The aim of seizing Armenian territory is to gain unhindered access forcibly to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and other Turkic-oriented nations. At the same time, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan share a similar stance on Kashmir. While Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had sharply condemned India’s abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, Azerbaijani officials have been quoted as saying that they support Islamabad’s stand on Kashmir. This is a cause of major diplomatic concern for New Delhi.

Another reason why India is backing Armenia is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in which India has a major stake. The INSTC is a 7,200-km-long multi-modal network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe. The route primarily involves moving freight from India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia via ship, rail and road. Since the project is not making much progress, Armenia is being seen as a country that can provide a viable alternative corridor instead of through Azerbaijan.

India has not issued any official statement regarding the recent developments in Nagorno-Karabakh till the time of filing of this report.

India suffered a third diplomatic setback, this time in the immediate neighbourhood, when opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu, known to be pro-China, defeated pro-India incumbent President Ibrahim Solih in the Maldives presidential election.

Muizzu, a protégé of former President Abdulla Yameen, known for his pro-China stance, defeated Solih in the presidential runoff held last weekend. Currently serving as the Mayor of the Maldives’ capital Male, Muizzu was the joint candidate of the People’s National Congress (PNC) and the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Initially, Yameen of the PPM was nominated as the joint candidate of the PNC and the PPM. But since he is serving an 11-year jail term due to a money laundering case, he became ineligible to contest the election. As a result, Muizzu of the PNC was nominated as the joint PNC-PPM candidate.

With Muizzu set to assume office on November 17, India will be keenly watching what policies Male will adopt vis-à-vis New Delhi in terms of economic, defence and security cooperation. As part of New Delhi’s Neighbourhood First Policy, the Maldives is strategically significant to India because of its location in the Indian Ocean. India and Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in antiquity and enjoy close, cordial and multi-dimensional relations. However, regime instability in the Maldives since 2008 has posed significant challenges to the India-Maldives relationship, particularly in the political and strategic spheres.

Ties between India and the Maldives deteriorated significantly when Yameen served as the President between 2013 and 2018. It was only after Solih came to power in 2018 that ties between New Delhi and Male improved.

Following his defeat, Solih requested Muizzu to ensure good governance and continuation of projects. By continuation of projects, Solih meant India-supported infrastructure projects. Muizzu had made two contradictory statements regarding the Indian projects. On the one hand, he said that he would not disturb the India-supported projects and on the other, he said that he would review some of these projects.

“Last year, when Muizzu visited China, he said during a meeting with the Communist Party of China that relations between Male and Beijing would improve dramatically if his party comes to power,” Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow in the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, told ETV Bharat. “It remains to be seen to what extent he harms India’s interests for the benefit of China.”

While serving as Minister of Housing and Infrastructure under Yameen, Muizzu oversaw a number of infrastructure projects funded by China, most notably the Sinamale Bridge. This bridge served as a vital connection linking Male, with the Velana International Airport on Hulhule.

China has invested heavily in the Maldives, both in terms of providing financial assistance as well as leasing a few islands in the name of development. The Maldives’ import dependency and more specifically issues of Chinese loan repayments have raised concerns of ‘debt trap’.

On the other hand, India has been an important development assistance partner of the Maldives. Cash grant projects include creation of infrastructure in the education, health and community development sectors. India has also approved 47 high impact community development projects, seven of which have been completed and inaugurated. Infrastructure and connectivity projects are also being implemented under Exim Bank lines of credit. All these projects will now be under the scanner with Muizzu assuming power.

Defence and security cooperation between India and the Maldives will be another cause of concern for New Delhi. Although India continues to be an important partner of the Maldives, New Delhi cannot afford to be complacent over its position and must remain attentive to the developments in the Maldives. India must play a key role within the Indo-Pacific security space to ensure regional security in South Asia and surrounding maritime boundaries. China’s strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood has increased. The Maldives has emerged as an important “pearl” in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia.

During his tenure as President, Yameen had brought in a new legislation to lease out islands to China. In the long run, if China plans to convert any of the leased islands into a naval base in the archipelago, then it will have significant security implications for India.

Defence cooperation between India and the Maldives extends to the areas of joint exercises, maritime domain awareness, gifting of hardware, infrastructure development etc.

Why defence cooperation has now become a cause of concern is because both Yameen’s PPM and the PNC had fuelled an ‘India Out’ campaign ahead of this year’s presidential election. The ‘India Out’ campaign was aimed at sparking hatred by creating scepticism about India's investments in the Maldives, the defence partnerships between the two sides, and the purported presence of Indian defence personnel in that country.

From the Maldives to Armenia to Canada, Indian diplomatic efforts will be tested in the days to come.