Bihar politics: Muslim votes matter

For the last 30 years, the Muslims which constitute around 17 per cent of total vote share in Bihar, have stood firmly with the RJD and its partners. The reasons behind this loyalty are the feelings of insecurity among the Muslim community at the time when the BJP's agenda is Hindutva.

Patna: Muslims play a crucial role in the formation of the government in Bihar and this assembly election they are all set to become the game-changer.

In comparison to the 2010 assembly election, Grand Alliance consisting RJD, JDU and Congress had managed to get more than 70 per cent of Muslim votes in 2015 assembly election.

Data suggests that other castes or communities may have shifted their loyalties to other parties but Yadav and Muslims always being loyal to the RJD and its allies. In 2015, the NDA just managed to get 6 to 7 per cent vote of the Mulism and major chunk remained with Grand Alliance in Bihar.

For the last 30 years, the Muslims which constitute around 17 per cent of total vote share stood firmly with the RJD and its partner. The reasons behind this loyalty are the feelings of insecurity among the Muslim community at the time when the BJP's agenda is Hindutva.

As per the survey of CSDS- Lokniti the Muslims will remain intact with the RJD and its allies in 2020 also.

Noted psephologist and director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) Sanjay Kumar observed that the advent of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) led by Asaduddin Owaisi is going to eat up few per cent of Muslim vote but the major chunk will remain with Mahagathbandhan.

“In 2015 most of the Muslim vote went to RJD, Congress and JDU whereas in 2010 also major chunk went with RJD around 60 to 70 per cent. However, AIMIM has fielded many candidates forming an alliance with other parties which can lead to cutting Muslim vote but despite that big portion will go to RJD plus. I don't think even pasmanda Muslim will vote for Nitish,” Kumar told ETV Bihar Bureau Chief Amit Bhelari over the phone.

He further stressed that even though Nitish has done many welfare works for Muslims including the construction of boundary walls of graveyard, he will not get Muslim vote as being with BJP.

Giving his prediction, Kumar also added that this assembly election, 55 to 60 per cent of Muslim vote will go to RJD plus and 10 to 15 vote will go to AIMIM and its allies.

The Owaisi factor would be restricted only in the Seemanchal region mainly four districts which include Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea and Katihar.

Looking at party-wise total vote share of the last three assembly election in Bihar- BJP has got the vote share of 15.65%, 16.49 %, 24.42 % in 2005, 2010 and 2015 respectively whereas JDU managed to bag 20.46%, 22,58%, 16.83 in the same year.

Going to RJD it has got 23.45%, 18.84 and 18.35% vote share. Whereas players like Congress had got 6.09%, 8.37% and 6.66% in 2005, 2010 and 2015 respectively. LJP has managed to bag a good vote share in 2005 with 11.10% but in 2010 and 2015 it got reduced to 6.74% and 4.83% respectively.

In the 2015 assembly poll, the total vote share of Grand Alliance was 41.4% whereas NDA vote share was 34.1%.

Interestingly even though NDA won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, the Muslims remained with RJD and its allies with a vote share of 77% and 6% went to the kitty of NDA.

The problem with Nitish Kumar is that he wants the vote of Muslims but at the same time he wants to be with the BJP as well. In 2013 when Nitish had snapped his 17-year-old relation with BJP followed by BJP led forming a government at Centre, the Muslims remained with RJD and left JDU in 2014 Lok Sabha poll.

JDU had won just two seats that year.

As noted psychologist has made the prediction about Muslim voter this assembly election, it's for sure that the minority in Bihar will set the agenda for Grand Alliance but it would be interesting to see whether Nitish would be able to make inroads into the Muslim vote bank while being with the saffron party.