Paswan's death a game-changer in Bihar polls?

Death of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan is expected to be a game-changer in the upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections where LJP has got a huge opportunity to collect sympathy vote of Dalits. Paswan's untimely demise is also seen as troublesome for CM Nitish Kumar who slammed and targetted the ailing leader in the near past, writes Amit Bhelari, Bureau Chief - Bihar, ETV Bharat.

Patna: The death of Union Minister and Dalit stalwart Ram Vilas Paswan seems to be a major game-changer in the upcoming Bihar Assembly poll. It has given a great opportunity to LJP to accumulate the sympathy vote of Dalits which constitute around 16 per cent of total vote share in Bihar.

His death is also seen as troublesome for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who knowingly or unknowingly made a blunder by attacking the ailing leader who is no more in this world.

Nitish should be afraid of LJP now because looking back at the history, it has been proven that whenever an iconic leader has passed away before the poll, the sympathy wave has always benefited the party.

Ram Vilas being one of the tallest leaders of Bihar has left Nitish in the lurch before saying goodbye to everyone. When Indira Gandhi was assassinated in 1984, her son Rajiv Gandhi won the election with a thumping majority.

From now onwards, the strategy of other political parties will change, fearing the sympathy factor as people of Bihar give more importance to the emotions rather than issues or logic. Ram Vilas was not an ordinary leader, he had command over certain sections of the society and those people will react aggressively.

Even Ram Vilas was very much aware of his deteriorating health condition and that was the reason he handed over everything to his son Chirag Paswan. He probably knew that he would not survive for long and accordingly, he took forward the political movement in support of his son. These are some qualities which had made him different from others and that's the reason he was also known as a weathercock in Indian politics.

Read:|Ram Vilas Paswan's death casts pall of gloom in Bihar

His death will now also make the NDA leaders sobre rather than being in attacking mode. Political observers opined that Nitish would be tenser and must be repenting what he said a few weeks before his death.

“I remember when journalists had asked him about Paswan's health on which CM had given a weird remark claiming he was not aware of his health. Nitish's statement had come at the time when people like Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and JP Nadda had inquired about his health. The second mistake Nitish did was reminding about sending Ram Vilas to Rajya Sabha. This particular remark is seen as an insult to the Dalit leader because it was the part of the agreement of the NDA to sent him to the upper house. The announcement of Rajya Sabha was made in the presence of Amit Shah during the 2019 Lok Sabha poll,” said a political observer.

LJP has decided to field candidates in 143 assembly constituencies and all these candidates would be against JDU candidates but not against BJP. So it is obvious that Nitish is trouble. It is also seen that LJP supporters will go for aggressive voting this time giving a nightmare to JDU candidates.

There is already heavy anti-incumbency against Nitish and when the factor of Ram Vilas will accumulate, it will further damage the credentials of the present government. Sympathy wave always helps the party and candidates in Bihar, even Nitish knows this very well.

Recently, Nitish offered a ticket to Sunil Kumar, son of late MP Baidyanath Mahto for by-poll in Valmiki Nagar parliament constituency. The seat got vacated after the death of Mahto. Similarly, Nitish ensured Satyaprakash Singh, son of late RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, to join JDU.

However, Ram Vilas death will now also give an upper hand to LJP in terms of curbing the division of Dalit votes which happens during the election time when many smaller parties form a front eyeing particular caste and community vote.

The charisma of other Dalit leaders in Bihar including Jitan Ram Manjhi is not going to stand in front of Ram Vilas anymore.

In the case of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi assassination, a slogan was very famous "Maa bete ka yeh balidan, yaad karega Hindustan" (India will remember the sacrifices of the mother and the son).

Something similar may happen in Bihar poll as Chirag is all set to get the benefit and it was very much required in the present scenario looking at Chirag's journey ahead.

Read:|Bihar polls an acid test for Chirag sans Senior Paswan

He is contesting elections all alone and BJP has come down heavily on Chirag showing the red face by issuing a warning not to use the PM's photo for the election purpose or else face the action from the Election Commission.

The performance of LJP is more dependent on how Chirag handles the emotion and sympathy as it would build not only in Hajipur (LJP stronghold) but the rest of Bihar. It is also a litmus test for Chirag to prove his calibre in the absence of his mentor father.

JDU leaders will no more get involved in personal attacks against Chirag knowing the fact that it will further make the voters more aggressive towards LJP. The death of Paswan had already spoiled the game of Nitish Kumar who is looking for a fourth term as CM in Bihar.

Similarly, there is also a great chance that Chirag may be inducted as a Cabinet Minister in the Narendra Modi government in days to come to fill the absence of his father. It will also send a message that the Modi government cares about Dalit.

However, the real impact of Paswan's death would be visible on November 10, when results would be declared for the Assembly Elections 2020 in Bihar.