Bihar polls an acid test for Chirag sans Senior Paswan

The demise of Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who had established himself among the tallest Dalit leaders, will likely have a huge impact in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, with his son deciding to break away from the NDA in his first real electoral test.

Patna (Bihar): Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, one of the most prominent Dalit leaders from Bihar who had been a part of several governments headed by rival parties, died on Thursday at the age of 74.

Paswan's demise -- exactly 20 days before Bihar goes to polls, is expected to impact the election prospects of the LJP, and the overall dynamics as well as the outcome of the three-phased polls in the eastern state that kicks off on October 28.

"Ram Vilas Paswan was one of the most prominent champions of social justice along with Lalu Prasad. However, his ideology was slightly different from the RJD leader... still, he was quite popular among the people of backward classes," political observer Saroj Yadav said.

"I believe his demise could give some scope to the LJP in the upcoming Assembly elections in Bihar. Especially, Chirag Paswan could get votes due to sympathy," he said.

"The voters of Bihar also count Chirag's dedication toward his father till the last moment of his life. Paswan was admitted in hospital for the last 74 days and despite assembly election in Bihar around the corner, Chirag stayed there," Yadav added.

The caste equation

In Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has predominantly been a 'Baniya' party, an upper-caste comprising less than a fifth of the state's population. On the other hand, the Rashtriya Janata Dal has commanded the support of a majority of Yadavs and Muslims, who form around a third of the population.

Read:Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan passes away, tributes pour in

With both the big parties and their mass bases locked in an unequal contest, the key to power lies with the remaining sections - the non-Yadav OBCs (other backward classes) like Kurmis and Koeris, the EBCs (extremely backward classes) like Nishads, NaiKahars and Mandals, and the Mahadalits like Paswans, Musahars, and Chamars.

However, the Paswans have mostly remained committed to Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

Popular as one of the most prominent Dalit leaders of Bihar, the Union Food and Civil Supplies Minister in the Narendra Modi-led government was widely known for socialist ways.

In Bihar, Dalits constitute 22 per cent of voters, of which 6 per cent are Paswans - believed to be the only core vote bank of the LJP.

Apart from the demise of his father, what is also a disadvantage for Chirag is the organisational presence of his party which is nominal in comparison to the RJD.

Chirag's trial by fire

Apart from the loss of such a tall leader, the other issue that the LJP will face, is the fact that Chirag remains to be tested in politics. He was handed over the reins of the LJP in November 2019, and the Bihar Assembly election is a litmus test for him. With junior Paswan breaking away from the ruling NDA, and deciding to go alone in the elections, his challenge has increased manifold.

Read:National flag to fly at half mast today as mark of respect to Ram Vilas Paswan

Like RJD's Tejashwi, Chirag too belongs to a family party, but has failed to gain acceptance outside his family by senior party leaders.

The election would be held in Bihar in three phases for a total of 243 seats. In the first phase, polling would be held for 71 seats. In the second phase, election would be held for 94 seats on 3 November 3, and the third and final phase on November 7 would witness voting for 78 seats. The results would be announced on November 10.

(With inputs from IANS)