Tripura Assembly election result: Will BJP repeat 2018 or see TIPRA Motha become kingmaker?

While exit polls predict BJP's clean sweep in Tripura, its TIPRA Motha, the new party that could turn into the kingmaker in this northeastern state in case of a hung assembly. Counting of votes takes place on March 2. Writes ETV Bharat's Nisar Dharma.

Agartala: The counting of votes in the Tripura Assembly Elections 2023 held on February 16 will coincide with Meghalaya and Nagaland on Thursday. Going by the aggregate of various exit polls, BJP is expected to win at least 32 seats in the 60-member assembly in the northeastern state, a lacklustre performance if compared to its 2018 tally of 36 seats though still enough to form the government.

Interestingly, if Tripura results throw a hung house, TIPRA Motha, the new entrant in the state's political arena, may emerge as a potential king-maker, as it is expected to secure around 10-16 seats, which is in line with the party's internal calculations. The party's chief, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma, has assured his workers that they will emerge victorious.

While BJP has not confirmed whether current Chief Minister Dr Manik Saha will continue in his position if they come to power, reports suggest that he will be reappointed due to his clean image. According to the exit polls, the Left-Congress alliance is likely to secure 10-20 seats. However, senior state Congress leader Sudip Roy Burman has criticized the predictions as a "corporate theory of confusing people."

He believes that the people of Tripura have voted against lawlessness in the state and that it was a revenge vote against the ruling party. CPI(M) state committee member Pabitra Kar predicts that the BJP will not win more than single-digit seats. The state recorded a high voter turnout of 89.90%, with a triangular contest between the BJP, Left-Congress alliance, and the TIPRA Motha. The TMC failed to make an impact, according to the exit polls.

The assembly election was crucial for many prominent leaders, including CM Saha, Deputy CM Jishnu Debbarman, Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik, CPI(M) leader Jitendra Choudhury, and Congress' Sudip Roy Burman, among others. Tripura is particularly significant for the BJP as Prime Minister Narendra Modi had urged the party cadres to replicate the Gujarat model in the state during his December 2022 visit.

In the 2018 elections, BJP won a simple majority in Tripura, toppling the two-decades-old Left government by winning 36 seats. The BJP's victory was aided by anti-incumbency sentiment and Modi's popularity. However, the ruling party, this time, faces multiple challenges, including anti-incumbency, the emergence of opposition alliances, and the rise of TIPRA Motha.

The alliance between traditional rivals CPI(M) and Congress is another challenge for the BJP. Although CPI(M) won 16 seats and Congress won none in the 2018 elections, Congress's vote share increased to 25% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The new alliance could potentially sway Congress voters who had supported the BJP to end CPI(M) rule. However, it remains to be seen whether anti-BJP votes will consolidate, especially with the Trinamool Congress entering the fray. The BJP is hoping that the split in non-BJP votes will work in its favour.

In addition to these challenges, the BJP has to counter the impact of TIPRA Motha, which has positioned itself as the champion of the indigenous tribal people. The rise of TIPRA Motha, along with the death of IPFT founder N.C. Debbarma and the defection of several leaders, including three MLAs, have severely dented IPFT's influence. The BJP attempted to form an alliance with TIPRA Motha, but the talks fell through as Debbarma was clear that his party would not join hands with anyone without a written assurance about creating a separate state.