BJP vote share declines in N-E; regional parties secure more seats

BJP's overall vote share has decreased in the three northeastern states of Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura compared to its 2018 tally. Interestingly, the regional parties have posed to be tough contenders for the saffron party in terms of their increased seat count and vote share.

Guwahati:BJP has performed fairly well in the elections to the three northeastern states of Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura, the results of which were declared recently. The party has proved itself as a successful ruling partner in all three states. It has managed to secure 46 out of the 176 seats in the three states. However, the election results revealed that the party's performance was poor when compared to 2018. It has also indicated fresh challenges for the saffron party in the northeastern region.

The Election Commission of India's data has raised a few serious questions. Firstly, whether BJP's support base is declining in the North-East and secondly, the chances of the resurgence of the regional tribal forces. The BJP had intensified its campaigning in these three states where its star campaigners included stalwarts like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, along with Union Ministers and senior leaders like JP Nadda, Yogi Adityanath, Smriti Irani, Himanta Biswa Sharma and Sarbananda Sonowal. In contrast, the other political parties had a limited campaigning scope. Again, BJP had a coalition government in all three states. Despite this, BJP's performance was poor than in 2018.

In Tripura, the BJP coalition's seat tally has dipped by 11 seats in 2023 compared to 2018. This time, the party won 32 seats which were 36 in 2018 and its ally IPFT won one seat while last time it had won eight seats. Again, BJP's vote share decreased by five per cent from 44 per cent in 2018 to 39 per cent in 2023. In contrast, the regional party Tipra Motha, which had been a cause of worry for the BJP, came out victorious in 13 constituencies. Political analysts feel Tipra Motha, led by Pradyut Bikram Deb Burma, is likely to complicate BJP's equation in Tripura in the coming days.

BJP performed better in Nagaland, by maintaining its previous seat count by winning 12 seats and has also increased its vote share by four per cent. The party won 12 out of 20 seats it contested in 2023. BJP had secured a 15 per cent vote share in Nagaland in 2018, which has risen to 19 per cent. However, the ongoing Naga peace process remains a tough challenge.

On the other hand, the NPF won 26 seats in 2018, but it has decreased to two and the party has also recorded a 32 per cent lesser vote share. Meanwhile, NDPP has secured nine more seats with a seven per cent higher vote share, which indicates that Naga voters have expressed more confidence in regional forces despite being allies of the BJP.

However, Meghalaya has shattered BJP's dreams. The party broke its alliance with the NPP and contested all 59 seats, but won only two seats. Its vote share decreased by six per cent from 15 per cent in 2018 to 9.3 per cent in 2023. Conrad Sangma's NPP became the largest party with 26 seats while BJP's national rival Congress won five seats and the Trinamool Congress won five.

The Election Commission's vote analysis indicated that the BJP's decline in popularity in the three states is a sign of alternative politics in the northeast. In Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland, the regional parties challenged BJP as well as Congress and TMC. In Meghalaya, regional forces secured 76 per cent of the votes while in Nagaland, the vote share of the regional forces was 53 per cent and Tripura's newly formed Tipra Motha won 23 per cent of the votes. In Meghalaya, the regional parties won 45 out of 59 seats while 35 out of 60 seats in Nagaland were won by regional parties and in Tripura, regional parties bagged 13 of 60 seats.