Vision India@2047 : India's roadmap to $30 trillion economy

Currently the world's fifth-largest economy at $3.7 trillion, India is projected to surpass Germany and Japan by 2030. NITI Aayog estimates a need for an annual average economic growth of 9.2% between 2030 and 2040, 8.8% between 2040 and 2047 and 9% from 2030 to 2047.

Hyderabad:In early 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is anticipated to reveal a roadmap, which is aimed at launching India into a developed nation with a $30 trillion economy by its 100th year of Independence. NITI Aayog, India's apex policy think tank, is on the verge of finalising a comprehensive vision document to achieve this transformation by 2047.

Currently the world's fifth-largest economy at $3.7 trillion, India is projected to surpass Germany and Japan by 2030. NITI Aayog estimates a need for an annual average economic growth of 9.2% between 2030 and 2040, 8.8% between 2040 and 2047 and 9% from 2030 to 2047.

However, this vision also presents a significant challenge for a nation contending with widespread issues such as poverty, unemployment, healthcare and education deficiencies, inadequate infrastructure, mounting private debt and income disparities. It's important to remember that, historically, transitioning an economy from low-income to high-income carries the risk of getting stuck in a 'middle-income trap.' Both South Africa and Brazil have found themselves confined to the middle-income group while striving to shift from low-income to high-income status.

This trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. Hence, a need for awareness is the need of the hour. To avoid this potential threat, India must expedite the shift from agrarian to industrial economies, address income inequality, and focus on increasing investments in physical and human capital.

Additionally, the implementation of a minimum wage policy is crucial. Exploring avenues to reduce production costs can enhance export competitiveness and boost local employment.

Likewise, there is a need to explore new processes and markets to ensure sustainable export growth. The shift from a resource-centric economic system to one based on increased productivity and innovation is indispensable.

Role of youth

The youth of India, comprising more than 65% of the population under 30, play a vital role in achieving the Vision of Dream India for 2047. With access to quality education, digital fluency and a spirit of innovation, they can drive societal transformations, create a vibrant startup ecosystem and address pressing social issues.

In the digital era, the youth's fluency in technology can drive principal changes through social media, amplifying their voices and mobilising communities.

NR Narayana Murthy, the former chairman of Infosys, recently shed light on the pivotal role the youth must play in achieving this audacious goal. Murthy passionately appealed to the young minds of the country, urging them to commit to an extraordinary dedication—working 12 hours a day for the next 20 to 50 years. He expressed hope that such continuous effort will propel India to the forefront, securing a position as one of the top economies, on the global front.

However, realising their potential requires collaborative efforts from the government, educational institutions, private enterprises and civil society, investments in skill development, vocational training and research are essential for equipping the youth to thrive in a rapidly evolving world.

As we approach the 100th anniversary of our independence, let's acknowledge the youth as torchbearers of our dreams and agents of change. To quote our former president Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, 'Dream, dream, dream. Dreams transform into thoughts, and thoughts result in action.' Through their dreams and actions, the vision of a Dream India @2047 will materialise. Let's unite, inspire the youth, and forge a path towards a future where India shines as a beacon of hope and progress.

With China encountering structural challenges, India emerges as an attractive destination for foreign investments, boasting a youthful population and a vast domestic market. However, India faces hurdles such as logistical and infrastructural limitations, red tape, corruption, and a rigid regulatory environment, which hinder the development of a robust export manufacturing hub.

Despite its demographic advantages, India contends with relatively high illiteracy rates and poverty compared to China. The World Bank ranks India 63rd in 'ease of doing business' compared to China's 31st position.

Urgent attention must be given to addressing these challenges for the successful realisation of its ambitious vision. India’s economy should focus on sectors such as computer software and hardware, drugs and pharmaceuticals, trading or chemicals such as fertilisers.

These four sectors accounted for more than 75% of the foreign direct investment inflows in India’s FY2023. The service sector has been a major component and contributes to about 50% of the country’s GDP.

Whether India will be able to shift its economy to more industry and manufacturing will largely depend on political decisions and future opportunity costs. However, such a transformative change necessitates time.

The success of this strategic approach lies not only in its depth, but also in meticulous planning, collaborative endeavours, and adaptability to navigate the complex and dynamic challenges ahead.

Way Forward

The Vision India@2047 plan poses as a crucial roadmap for India’s evolution into a developed nation. Its emphasis on vital reforms, economic transition, and tackling income disparities are pivotal for India’s sustained growth. It is imperative for the government, irrespective of its political inclinations, to uphold the commitment to this blueprint, ensuring a consistent focus on achieving the outlined objectives.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this article are the views of Dr Satyanarayanamurty Dogga, assistant professor, Department of Economics, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer.