Explained: Maharashtra crisis will give BJP advantage in Presidential polls

If 40 MLAs walk out from Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance and go into BJP’s fold then there will be a loss of 7000 votes that the opposition certainly cannot afford at this point. With the Presidential candidate from Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has already expressed his solidarity with the BJP nominee making it easier for the ruling BJP.

Hyderabad (Telangana):With the Eknath Shinde faction claiming to have the support of 40 MLAs effectively reducing the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance into minority might have a direct effect on the Presidential polls scheduled next month.

“Maharashtra crisis is deepening every hour and there are indications that the assembly might be dissolved. Whether the state assembly is dissolved or not – the ongoing crisis will have an effect on the Presidential polls. Even if the rebel MLAs decided to vote for the BJP candidate then it will be a huge loss for the opposition, Sephologist Biswanath Chakraborty told ETV Bharat.

From a layman’s parlance the election of the President of the country is done on the basis of proportional representation where each vote of an MLA carries a weightage calculated on the basis of the population in the state in 1971. Based on this poll mathematics the value of vote of each of the 288 (Technically 287 after the death of one MLA) MLAs is 175.

In that case if 40 MLAs walk out from Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance and go into BJP’s fold then there will be a loss of 7,000 votes that the Opposition certainly cannot afford at this point. With the Presidential candidate from Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has already expressed his solidarity with the BJP nominee making it easier for the ruling party.

Though there have been some doubts regarding Nitish Kumar but the Bihar chief minister has not dropped any hints that he is not willing to support the BJP candidate. Though there has been ideological differences JDU and BJP and the latter has raised question over his good governance but that is too farfetched to think that a seasoned politician like Nitish Kumar will walk out of the NDA.

The recent crisis in Maharashtra will only make things easier for the saffron brigade. Before going into the poll arithmetic, we need to have a quick look at the floor plan of Maharashtra State Assembly. The House is disproportionately divided between Shiv Sena (55), NCP (54), Congress (44) and BJP (106).

Supported by some smaller parties and having the strength of 169 Shiv Sena NCP and Congress formed the alliance - MVA to rule the state. BJP with the support base of the 113 MLAs including 7 from smaller parties is the main opposition in the state.

“At present, the BJP will be able to form the government with the rebel faction's support as it will help them reach the magic figure of 145. But, the important thing is that every calculation is based on Shinde’s claim. So far there is no official confirmation that he has the support of all the Shiv Sena MLAs. We need to watch before the things become clear,” Chakraborty added.

With the Presidential election round the corner BJP will try to fuel the crisis further to keep the opposition at bay. “Shinde’s rebel has put Shiv Sena in a tight spot and they have no other alternative but to compromise and in that case BJP will have the advantage. They will not only have the chance to form the government but manage to get some additional votes in the Presidential election," a senior psephologist said.

"Even if the assembly is dissolved then these MLAs will lose voting rights. In that case though BJP will lose 113 votes but they will block the voting right of 174 MLAs of the opposition – managing a negative advantage of the votes of 61 MLAs which is nearly 11,000. In both the cases BJP is in an advantageous position,” he added.