It's a win-win situation in Maharashtra for BJP

Naturally, a revolt within Shiv Sena was inevitable because it was not possible for the party to come out of the Hindutva agenda that it had carried so long but what was important is the timing, writes ETV Bharat's Saibal Gupta.

In Maharashtra, it is perhaps time for BJP to quote Czech-born British playwright Tom Stoppard — ‘Heads I win; Tails you lose’. Wary of the failure to form government in 2019, though BJP— this time—is treading with caution but there can be hardly doubt that it is win-win situation for the saffron brigade both in the Presidential polls and also on the question of wresting Maharashtra back to its fold.

On Thursday rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde claimed to have the support of “a big national party" subtly hinting at backing from the centre-the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Though BJP denied the allegation with Union Minister Raosaheb Patil Danve saying that it was Shiv Sena’s internal problem and the party (BJP) hasn’t spoken to Shinde but its role in the whole episode can’t be ignored.

“There is no doubt that BJP is behind everything. The rebel MLAs were first taken to Surat in Gujarat and then to Guwahati in Assam. Both the states are ruled by BJP. Even Assam chief minister Hemanta Biswa Sharma visited Radisson Blu before the rebel MLAs reached Guwahati,” psephologist Biswanath Chakraborty said.

Political analysts are of the opinion that BJP‘s game plan is not only an effort to heal their wounds but it is a part of a larger design. Ever since MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi ) — an alliance of Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena came to power in 2019 it was predicted that the alliance will not continue for long because of the ideological differences between Shiv Sena and Congress but it was deft political skills of Sharad Pawar that kept this disparate coalition together.

Naturally, a revolt within Sena was inevitable because it was not possible for the party to come out of the Hindutva agenda that it had carried so long but what was important is the timing. The rift within the party happened at a time when it will not only put the MVA government in trouble but it will have a direct impact on the Presidential polls as well.

According to analysts at present MVA has been left with only three options — First to accept Shinde as a leader and join BJP to form the government. Secondly, to dissolve the government and go for fresh polls or they can put up a brave face and go for the floor testing. Though Thackeray has hardly shown any signs of breaking down so far but with more than 40 of the 55 MLAs in the rebel camp it is hardly possible for him to survive.

“The only option left behind Shiv Sena is to support BJP and form the government. This can only save the party and the government at present,” Chakraborty said. “What is more important is that by creating this crisis BJP has blown off all the possibilities of an opposition unity so far as the Presidential candidate is concerned,” he added.

When it comes to Presidential polls it is understandable that it will have an impact on the opposition unity. From a layman’s parlance the election of the President of the country is done on the basis of proportional representation where each vote of an MLA carries a weightage calculated on the basis of the population in the state in 1971. Based on this poll mathematics the value of vote of each of the 288 (Technically 287 after the death of one MLA) MLAs is 175.

In that case if 40 MLAs walk out from Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance and go into BJP’s fold then there will be a loss of 7000 votes that the opposition certainly cannot afford at this point. With the Presidential candidate from Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has already expressed his solidarity with the BJP nominee making it easier for the ruling party.

In this present circumstances, if Sena goes with BJP, they will get an additional vote of 9625 which is enough for them to manage the victory Draupadi Murmu – the Presidential candidate for NDA. Even if the assembly is dissolved then these MLAs will lose voting rights. In that case though BJP will lose 113 votes but they will block the voting right of 174 MLAs of the opposition – managing a negative advantage of the votes of 61 MLAs which is nearly 11000,” a senior psephologist said. “In both the cases BJP is in an advantageous position,” he added.