India an observer for Bangladesh polls; election legitimacy will hold, say experts

India will be one of the nine observer nations for the Bangladesh parliamentary elections scheduled for January 7 next year. According to experts, despite objections raised by the US and other Western powers about the way the elections are being held, there will not be any question about the legitimacy of the whole process, writes ETV Bharat’s Aroonim Bhuyan.

New Delhi: Though India has so far maintained a neutral stance ahead of the Bangladesh parliamentary elections, it will be one of the nine observer nations during polling scheduled for January 7. Apart from India, the other nations that will be observers are Sri Lanka, China, Russia, Japan, Uzbekistan, Mauritius, Georgia and Palestine. Besides this, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Commonwealth and the Arab Parliament will observe the elections, according to Bangladesh foreign ministry spokesperson Seheli Sabrin. A four-member European Union expert panel is also in Dhaka to observe the polls.

However, the US is conspicuous by its absence as an observer nation. Washington, along with some other Western powers, has been voicing concerns about whether the elections would be “free and fair” without all parties participating in the process. It may be mentioned that the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has decided to boycott the elections. It had demanded that the elections be held under a caretaker government. However, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not accede to the demand.

As a result, Hasina’s ruling Awami League and its allies are now set to sweep the polls. Hasina is now set to become the Prime Minister for the fifth time. However, what has riled the ruling Awami League dispensation in Bangladesh is the continued interventions by Western powers, particularly the US, in the run-up to the elections. Earlier this year, the US imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi officials and political functionaries for what it called undermining the democratic electoral process.

US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas had met with the Chief Election Commissioner and wanted to meet leaders from the ruling party (Awami League), the opposition (BNP), and an extremist group (Jamaat-e-Islami). The primary goal, the US claimed, is to broker peace and encourage the opposition to participate in the elections.

Prime Minister Hasina has, however, alleged that the US is seeking a regime change in her country. Last month, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas met Awami League general secretary Obaidul Quader to hand over an official letter sent by US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu calling for “dialogue without preconditions” among the three major parties Awami League, BNP and Jatiya Party to resolve what he called the political crisis over the upcoming election. While the BNP replied to Lu saying that it was open for discussions, the ruling Awami League rejected any dialogue.

Amidst all these developments, Russia last week alleged that the US would create an Arab Spring-like situation in Bangladesh after the elections. When asked about this, US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said, “We support free and fair elections in Bangladesh, and I don’t have any further comment from that.”

According to Western critics, the elections not being held under a caretaker government raises the question of the legitimacy of the whole process. It may be mentioned that, between 1991 and 2008, four elections were held with caretaker governments in place. Both the Awami League and the BNP were alternatively in power during this period.

However, after the Awami League came to power in 2008, it abolished the caretaker government system. This step was taken as the caretaker government installed ahead of the elections that year continued in power for two years and developed its agenda.

Following this, the BNP boycotted the 2014 parliamentary elections citing unfair conditions following months of protests, strikes and blockades. In the 2018 parliamentary elections, the BNP participated after being given assurances of a level playing field, but with its leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia being ineligible to contest due to a previous conviction in a corruption case, the party was completely routed managing only seven seats in the country’s 350-seat Parliament.

So, will the question of the legitimacy of the electoral process this time around? “People in Bangladesh think that the Western perspective of the electoral process does not hold water,” Sharin Shajahan Naomi, an academic and social activist of Bangladesh, who is currently pursuing her post-doctoral fellowship at KREA University in India, told ETV Bharat. “Independent candidates are putting up a good fight against Awami League candidates. People are turning up in large numbers at political campaigns.”

According to Shahadat Hossain, a research scholar in the Department of International Relations of South Asian University, New Delhi, the election process in Bangladesh is legitimate and according to the country’s constitution and the law. “According to our constitution, there is no provision for installing a caretaker government ahead of elections,” Hossain, who hails from Bangladesh, told ETV Bharat.

He said that despite all the objections the US has raised about the electoral process, the BNP is now left with no option to participate in the elections. “These elections will be like the 2014 elections when people knew that the process would be one-sided and treated the polling day like a holiday. This time too people will treat the polling day as a holiday and there might be low voter turnout,” Hossain said.

Interestingly, Bangladesh Election Commissioner Rashida Sultana has said that the commission must ensure that people can freely cast their votes, “while it is up to the candidates to bring voters to the polling centres on election day”, according to local media reports. Everyone involved, including law enforcement and local administrations, has assured the commission that the conditions are conducive for people to exercise their franchise freely, Rashida told reporters on Friday.

“They have promised that the conditions will only improve. We have put our faith and confidence in them. We think voting will be pleasant and fair,” the Dhaka Tribune quoted the Election Commissioner as saying. In response to a question about people’s indifference to voting, she urged all citizens to come to polling centres on January 7 to cast their votes as it is their civil right, according to the Dhaka Tribune report.

Rashida’s comments came in the face of the BNP and like-minded political parties distributing leaflets among the people to mobilise public opinion in favour of boycotting the January 7 polls. Some 60 lakh leaflets have been distributed across the country in the first two days of a three-day non-cooperation movement this week against the government, The Daily Star quoted BNP senior joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi as saying. According to Naomi, in a way, it is good that the BNP has decided to boycott the elections.

“In the last five years, the BNP was not working at the grassroots level,” she said. “The party became Dhaka-based and indulged in lobbying in the US embassy. The party has also changed as it does not have any prominent leader. It does not have any connection with the people, especially in the villages.”

Naomi explained that in elections in Bangladesh, the villagers are the real change-makers. “People in the villages love Hasina. There is a festive atmosphere ahead of the upcoming elections,” she said.

What about the Russian allegation that the US might create an Arab Spring-like situation in Bangladesh after the elections? Naomi conceded that there might be attacks on Awami League followers, especially Hindu minorities. At the same time, she stated that the Awami League’s policy towards security and stability in the country is very strong.

“Usually, Hindus are attacked during pre-poll violence,” she said. “But in the pre-poll violence that occurred in October this year, Hindus were not targeted.” So how can post-poll violence be averted? “The Awami League will have to adopt a very aggressive foreign policy,” Naomi said. “Otherwise, Bangladesh will feel very uncomfortable sitting at international forums.”