Hyderabad: Covid-19 virus has brought the world to a standstill and overly defensive mode. Countries are cut off with one another with increasing restrictions on movement. Only stranded citizens or some special categories have been allowed to be repatriated or evacuated from abroad.
Borders are sealed within countries and with the outside world. Economies are in a recession, the industry in shut down and the countries in lockdown. Travel and Tourism have become a thing of the past at least in the short term. Airlines and other logistics are looking for lifelines and financial bailouts to stay afloat. Health care of citizens and handholding of the industry and economy are the primary concerns of the world leaders. In this dire situation of isolation and social distancing, some restrictive measures have been taken that might impact on the free movement of people to other countries for travel, tourism, or immigration.
On April 22, President Trump had signed a "Proclamation - Suspending Entry of Immigrants Who Present Risk to the U.S. Labor Market During the Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Outbreak" declaring that "In the administration of our Nation’s immigration system, we must be mindful of the impact of foreign workers on the United States labour market, particularly in an environment of high domestic unemployment and depressed demand for labour….."
"There is no way to protect already disadvantaged and unemployed Americans from the threat of competition for scarce jobs from new lawful permanent residents. Existing immigrant visa processing protections are inadequate for recovery from the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, introducing additional permanent residents when our healthcare resources are limited puts strain on the finite limits of our healthcare system at a time when we need to prioritize Americans and the existing immigrant population. In light of the above, I have determined that the entry, during the next 60 days, of certain aliens as immigrants would be detrimental to the interests of the United States."
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Already suspended US visas may take much longer to be revived. It is in keeping with President Trump’s election speeches during 2015-16 and his emphasis on "America first". It also concludes that for all the US problems the immigrant workforce is responsible oblivious that the USA is a nation of immigrants whose contributions have been critical to it becoming a hyperpower. Similar anti-immigrant rhetoric has become a commonplace of political parlance in European countries where extreme political right-wingers are gaining currency. It is a dangerous trend even if politically expedient in the short term.
India has a highly successful diaspora of over 30 million comprising Non-Resident Indians (NRI) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) who have acquitted themselves creditably abroad. Many are heading the biggest Multinational Corporations in the West. They have done well in science, medicine, industry, agriculture and enterprise.
In Silicon Valley, the Indian software professionals and companies have become a gold standard and contributed to the US becoming the most advanced knowledge economy. They are the largest claimants of the H1B professional visas even though it has been a point of discussion between the Indian and US authorities. Many have become successful politicians and, in some countries, even the Prime Ministers and Heads of State.
It is a matter of pride that in the UK the Finance and Interior Ministers belong to this category. In the top ten industrialists in the UK, there are early Entrepreneurs of Indian Origin (EIO). Indian origin people in the US account for nearly 4 million about whom President Trump spoke glowingly during his February visit to India let alone the famous "Howdy Modi" event in Houston. Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) have become a reliable bridge between their adopted countries and India. The Brain drain of yore has converted into the "Brain trust" of modern times.
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Likewise, in West Asia, nine million Indians are an integral part of the exceptional development especially of the oil-rich gulf economies. They comprise of high-quality professionals, bankers, entrepreneurs, medical professionals including nurses and paramedic staff and blue-collar workers. Their enterprise, loyalty and discipline are respected by their local hosts. They have helped the Indian economy through remittances to the tune of US $ 40-50 bn annually.
However, low crude oil prices had an impact on employment and remittances in recent years. With the pandemic combined with lower crude prices, the economies are expected to contract by 25-30%. Major projects might be deferred or a complete restructuring of their economic model might ensue in a post-Covid order.
World Bank estimates that in view of deadly coronavirus, remittances to India are likely to drop by 23 per cent from US$ 83 bn (2019) to US$ 64 bn this year. It will be largely due to a fall in the wages of migrant workers. Retrenchments and repatriation in large number may follow with socio-economic consequences in sending states. In addition, those industrialists and entrepreneurs who set up shop abroad might find it difficult to salvage their balance sheets without state support. This vicious cycle will have its own dynamic that is difficult to predict at this stage but countries have to prepare for rehabilitation, retraining and reemployment of their surplus returning citizens.
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The Indian government has been the first responder to evacuate thousands of her citizens as well as from many other countries from the conflict and Covid zones. In the wake of Covid 19 and to express solidarity with the world Prime Minister Modi initiated digital diplomacy with our neighbours and many world leaders including G20 to galvanize global effort. To ensure the welfare of Indian citizens he spoke to the Heads of State and Governments with a large Indian diaspora. Sincere assurances have been received. Embassies have been charged to extend all assistance to the community in distress.
By the end of Covid-19, government interventions and role will be enhanced. But this may lead to greater restrictions on border management and immigration controls, especially in the developed world. Restrictions on movement will be unfortunate and must be dispensed with even by those who feel the rising unemployment in their countries has increased due to the migrant workforce and not due to wrong policy choices. Unfortunately, the UN and other international bodies have also disappointed in recent times. Recourse, therefore, lies in continued bilateral and multilateral engagement.
(The author, Anil Trigunayat has formerly served as the Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya, and Malta)
