New Delhi: Amidst a 48-hour hartal, boycott of the electoral process by opposition parties, criticism from Western powers, particularly the US and incidents of arson, Bangladesh is heading for parliamentary elections on Sunday, the results of which are long foregone. With a 12-party alliance led by the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotting the elections alleging a lack of transparency in the process, the ruling Awami League of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is all set to return to power.
The BNP had demanded that the elections be held under a caretaker government. However, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not accede to the demand. It may be recalled that between 1991 and 2008 four elections were held with caretaker governments in place. Both the Awami League and the BNP were alternatively in power during this period.
However, after the Awami League came to power in 2008, it abolished the caretaker government system. This step was taken as the caretaker government that was installed ahead of the elections that year continued in power for two years and developed an agenda of its own. Following this, the BNP boycotted the 2014 parliamentary elections citing unfair conditions following months of protests, strikes and blockades.
In the 2018 parliamentary elections, the BNP participated after being given assurances of a level playing field, but with its leader and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia being ineligible to contest due to a previous conviction in a corruption case, the party was completely routed managing only seven seats in the country’s 350-seat Parliament.
In the run-up to the elections this year, BNP activists are allegedly indulging in incidents of arson. On Friday night, the Benapole Express was set on fire by miscreants in Dhaka resulting in the deaths of four people. A BNP leader is among six people arrested by the police in this connection. Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen has described the train fire incident as an “unforgivable crime against humanity”.
“This reprehensible incident, undoubtedly orchestrated by those with malicious intent, strikes at the very heart of our democratic values,” Momen was cited as stating in a message. “The timing of this tragedy, just a day before the election (sic) scheduled for January 7, 2024, shows an absolute intention to hinder the festivity, safety, and security of the democratic processes of the country.”
Early on Saturday morning, the eve of the polls, vehicles were set on fire in different parts of the country. In Chittagong, miscreants set fire to a pick-up van on the Dhaka-Chittgagong Highway at Dhalipara in Sitakunda upazila, the Dhaka Tribune reported. In Sylhet, arsonists set a truck on fire on the Sylhet-Dhaka highway at Lalabazar in Dakkhin Surma upazila.
According to Fire Service and Civil Defence, at least six vehicles and 10 establishments were set on fire in 16 hours till 10 am on Saturday, the Daily Messenger reported. One Buddhist temple and one educational institution were among the establishments. “This is the nature of activities of the BNP,” Sharin Shajahan Naomi, an academic and social activist of Bangladesh, who is currently pursuing her post-doctoral fellowship at KREA University in India, told ETV Bharat. “The BNP activists are known for carrying out petrol bomb attacks. They are backed by the extremist group Jamaat-e-Islami.”
Naomi said that the BNP activists want to create the impression that the elections are being held under the shadow of violence. “They want the Western powers to be concerned,” she said. What has riled the ruling Awami League dispensation in Bangladesh are the continued interventions by Western powers, particularly the US, in the run-up to the elections.
Earlier this year, the US imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi officials and political functionaries for what it called undermining the democratic electoral process. According to Western critics, the elections not being held under a caretaker government raises the question of the legitimacy of the whole process. Prime Minister Hasina has alleged that the US is seeking a regime change in her country.
Naomi, however, said that the incidents of violence ahead of the elections are confined to the capital city Dhaka. “But the reality is very different,” she said. “In the villages, there is a festive atmosphere. The nominated candidates are in close contact with the voters in the villages. Hindu voters are actively participating in the campaigning in support of Hasina.”
Meanwhile, a 48-hour nationwide hartal called by the BNP is now underway. BNP senior joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said that the hartal is meant to drum up public support in favour of the party’s call to boycott the January 7 elections. However, the BNP’s top leaders asked activists to enforce the strike, but avoid violence and confrontation with Awami League activists and law enforcers.
“Instructions were given to all the units not to engage in clashes with any quarter centring the polls,” the Daily Star quoted a senior party leader as saying on the condition of anonymity. In another interesting development, given the opposition boycott of the polls, the ruling Awami League has allowed its members, who were not given nominations to stand as independent candidates to give a semblance of inclusivity in the elections. However, many of these are now giving a tough challenge to the nominated Awami League candidates.
According to a report in the Daily Star, the fate of at least 18 cabinet members hangs in the balance as they are facing strong challenges from “Awami League independents” in Sunday’s polls. “Around 70 ‘AL independents’ have a higher chance of victory than their party-nominated candidates while over 40 incumbents, who have the party ticket, are neck-and-neck in their races with their AL rivals,” the report stated.
According to the report, Awami League-nominated candidates might get an easy run in around 110 constituencies of the 350 seats that are up for grabs as there are no strong independent candidates there. The independent candidates are fighting under the eagle symbol against the Awami League’s boat.
According to Naomi, some of these independent candidates are even taking the support of the Jamaat-e-Islami. “Although these independent candidates are contributing to the democratic process, in the long run, they might pose a threat to good Awami League candidates,” she said. “They are creating confusion among people.”
This brings up the question of the post-poll scenario and the perception of Bangladesh’s new ruling dispensation among the international community. Last month, Russia alleged that the US would create an Arab Spring-like situation in Bangladesh after the elections. When asked about this, US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said: “We support free and fair elections in Bangladesh, and I don’t have any further comment from that.”
Meanwhile, China, a Communist nation, has said that the election is another milestone in Bangladesh’s democracy. According to the Awami League’s manifesto, Bangladesh will continue to cooperate with India in various areas, including cross-border connectivity, transit, energy partnership and equitable water sharing.
“The government will also continue bilateral trade and security cooperation with India,” it states. “In addition, the government will open up new areas of cooperation with India-Bhutan-Nepal for hydropower generation and joint management of common river basins.” As far as ties with China are concerned, the manifesto states: “Bangladesh is willing to strengthen relations with China in terms of development financing.”
According to Naomi, the Awami League, when elected to power, will get support from India, China, Russia and all Gulf countries. However, what will be of interest is the approach of Western powers like the US and the European Union (EU) that have been critical of the electoral process. “What Bangladesh will need is an aggressive foreign policy and a strong foreign minister like S Jaishankar of India,” she said. At the end of the polling day, however, what will be of interest domestically and internationally is the voter turnout as the opposition has virtually given a walkover to the Awami League.
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