Imminent US, China clash over Taiwan this summer

On December 27, 2021, the US enacted a law enabling Taiwan’s participation in US Navy-hosted RIMPAC 2022, billed as the world’s biggest naval exercise, setting the stage for a major showdown between US and China a few months from now, writes Sanjib Kr Baruah.

New Delhi:Amid the ongoing all-out violent conflict after the Russian military action in Ukraine that began on February 24, another stage is being readied for a major showdown between the US and China over the Taiwan issue this summer itself. Fearing that a World War may be ignited, the US has, till now, stayed away from direct military involvement in Ukraine even as the Russian war machine has unleashed a ferocious campaign in the former Soviet territory.

While the US declares adherence to the ‘One-China’ policy which acknowledges that there is only one China, it enacted a law on December 27, 2021, which calls for inviting and including Taiwan to be part of the US Navy-hosted “Rim of the Pacific” exercise or RIMPAC. Section 1246 of the National Defense Authorization Act 2022 calls for “conducting practical training and military exercises with Taiwan, including, as appropriate, inviting Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific exercise conducted in 2022, that enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability, as described in the Taiwan Relations Act.”

Section 1247 lays down the US policy on Taiwan as to “maintain the capacity of the US to resist a fait accompli that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan.” “Fait accompli” is described in the act as China invading and seizing control of Taiwan. Section 1248 calls for developing a plan “for assisting Taiwan in improving its defensive asymmetric capabilities and addressing vulnerabilities.”

The 28th edition of the biennial RIMPAC is scheduled to be held this summer in both Hawaii and San Diego. The US Navy, while stating that about 27 nations would participate in the exercise has till now not made the names of the participating countries public. At the same time, the US Navy’s 3rd Fleet hosted the final planning conference (FPC) for RIMPAC 2022 at the Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam from March 21-24, 2022 where all 27 nations were represented.

An email query sent to the US authorities on the nations that will participate in RIMPAC 22 has gone unanswered till now. Taiwan’s participation in RIMPAC 22 will definitely upset China which sees Taiwan as a “breakaway province” that will be “reunified” with the Chinese mainland one day. RIMPAC 22, which, according to the US Navy, will see participation by 41 ships, four submarines, more than 170 aircraft, and about 25,000 personnel, therefore, has the strong potential to emerge as a flashpoint for a major US-China showdown.

Indicating the extensiveness of the upcoming mammoth exercise, a US Navy release said: “The size and scope of RIMPAC 2022 are expected to more closely resemble the 2018 iteration following a scaled back version in 2020, but with COVID mitigation measures in place.” Although an Indian Navy spokesperson refused to comment on whether India would participate in the exercise or not, India participated in RIMPAC 2018 along with 26 other countries.

Interestingly, China was part of the 2014 and 2016 editions of RIMPAC, but the invitation was taken back in the 2018 exercise due to China’s belligerent activity in the South China Sea. While agreeing to the ‘One-China’ policy, what the US does not adhere to is the “One China principle” and accords primacy to a peaceful resolution of differences between China and Taiwan pursuant to “constructive dialogue”. In 1979, when the US formalized diplomatic ties with China and closed down its embassy in Taipei, it also inked the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) whereby the US committed to help Taiwan defend itself—the sole basis of how the US continues to supply weapons to Taiwan.

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