COVID-19: Italy reports skyrocketing fatalities

The heart of western Europe’s rampaging outbreak now counts 74,386 known cases and 7,503 deaths. The new increases come nearly two weeks into a national lock-down in a desperate bid to contain the spread of the virus.

Rome: Italy has reported 837 new coronavirus deaths, bringing the country’s toll to 12,428, the highest in the world.

The head of Italy’s national institutes of health said that the country has hit the “plateau” in its coronavirus infection rate, three weeks into a national lockdown, and should start to see a decline in new cases.

COVID-19: Italy reports skyrocketing fatalities.

Dr Silvio Brusaferro stressed on Tuesday that it would be folly to relax Italy’s productivity shutdown and stay-at-home restrictions now, even though the rate of new virus infections is slowing.

But he said, “The curve suggests we are at the plateau. We have to confirm it because arriving at the plateau doesn’t mean we have conquered the peak and we’re done. It means now we should start to see the decline if we continue to place maximum attention on what we do every day.”

The daily numbers released by Italy’s civil protection agency confirmed the trend, showing another 4,053 infections — in line with a levelling off in recent days — to bring Italy’s total confirmed cases to 105,792.

Brusaferro confirmed that Italy’s R0, the average number of people who will get infected from one contagious person, is nearing one, down from estimates as high as two or three. Officials are aiming to get the R0 under one to rein in the epidemic.

In the absence of a virus vaccine that would bring that rate closer to zero, Brusaferro said governments around the world will have to come up with a mixture of measures to keep the infection curve down while gradually allowing some activity to restart.

March 30

Italy reports 812 new virus deaths

Italy is seeing a continued slowdown in the rate of its new confirmed coronavirus cases while registering a record number of people cured as it enters its third week into a nationwide lockdown.

Another 812 people died in the last day, bringing Italy’s toll to 11,591 and maintaining its position as the country with the most dead.

Overall, Italy added 4,050 new infections on Monday, bringing its official total to 1,01,739 and keeping its place as the European epicentre of the pandemic and second only to the US.

Epidemiologists said that the real number of Italy's caseload, however, is as much as five to 10 times more than the official number, but that those cases aren’t being counted because Italy is only testing people with severe symptoms. Of those infected, 14,620 have been declared cured, including a record 1,590 in the past day.

March 29

Italy looks to extend lockdown as cases near 1,00,000

Italian authorities said on Sunday they would extend a month-long lockdown to stem the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of deaths in the country reached 10,779 and the number of infected neared 100,000.

The civil protection service reported another 756 fatalities in the world's worst-hit nation on Sunday, while the number of officially registered cases of COVID-19 increased by 5,217 to 97,689.

Nevertheless, the daily rise in infections has slowed to 5.6 per cent -- the lowest rate since Italian officials started tracking cases following the first death on February 21.

In the epicentre of the pandemic, the region around Milan where the number of cases previously increased daily, the number of Italians receiving intensive care remained almost unchanged.

"We are witnessing a slowdown," University of Milan virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco told the Il Corriere Della Sera daily.

"It is not plateau yet, but it is a good sign."

Italy closed all of its schools at the start of the month and then began gradually imposing a lockdown, tightening it successively until almost all stores were shut on March 12.

The measures -- since adopted to varying degrees across most of Europe -- did not prevent Italy's death toll from overtaking that in China, where the disease was first reported, on March 19.

And while the lockdown -- which is officially due to end on April 3 -- is economically painful, officials appear determined to extend it until the coronavirus is finally stopped in its tracks.

Regional affairs minister Francesco Boccia said the question facing the government was not whether it would be extended, but by how long.

"The measures expiring on April 3 will inevitably be extended," Boccia told Italy's Sky TG24 television.

"I think that, at the moment, talking about re-opening is inappropriate and irresponsible." A final decision is expected to be made at a ministerial meeting in the coming days.

March 28

Italy's coronavirus death toll tops 10,000

Italy's death toll from the novel coronavirus shot past 10,000 on Saturday with 889 new deaths, the country's civil protection service said.

The toll in Italy which has suffered more deaths than any other country now stands at 10,023. An additional 5,974 infections brought to 92,472 the number of people who have officially tested positive for COVID-19 in Italy since the crisis began last month.

Italy’s COVID-19 deaths are down slightly from the previous day.

That compares to 969 a day earlier which was a one-day high in the country which has the world’s highest number of deaths of persons with confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

The day-to-day rise in new cases was just under 6,000, about the same as the previous day’s figure. Overall, Italy has at least 92,472 cases of COVID-19 and days ago surpassed the total of China where the outbreak began in early 2020.

March 27

Italy records almost 1,000 virus deaths in one-day record

Italy recorded a shocking spike in coronavirus deaths on Friday with 969 new victims, the worst daily record for any country since the pandemic began.

The infection rate, however, continued its downward trend, with the civil protection agency reporting nearly 86,500 confirmed cases in Italy -- a 7.4 percent increase, down from around 8.0 percent in previous days.

March 26

Italy reports 662 new deaths

Italy has reported 662 new coronavirus deaths bringing the country’s death toll to 8,165, which is the highest in the world.

The country has 6,153 new coronavirus infections, pushing the global total over half a million, based on a count kept by Johns Hopkins University.

Italy now has 80,539 cases, almost as many as China.

The human and economic toll of the lockdowns against the coronavirus mounted on Thursday as Italy shut down most of its industry and a record-shattering 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits in a single week.

Around the globe, the death toll stood at nearly 8,200 in Italy, more than 4,100 in Spain and over 1,000 in the U.S., approximately 400 of them in New York State, the worst hotspot in the nation.

The United Nations estimated that as many as 25 million jobs could be lost in the economic upheaval, more than during the global financial meltdown of 2008.

In Europe, companies are laying off workers at the fastest pace since 2009, according to surveys of business managers. And the U.S. is bleeding jobs as well: The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week was nearly five times the old record, set in 1982.

March 25

Italy adds 683 more coronavirus deaths

Italy has added 683 more dead and 5,210 infections to its coronavirus toll, but its initial steep rise in cases has continued to level off two weeks into a nationwide lockdown.

The new figures brought the number of infections to 74,386 and placed Italy on track to overtake China in the next day or two in having the most reported cases in the world. Italy last week reported more dead than China and on Wednesday registered a total of 7,503 dead with the virus, confirming its place as the European epicentre of the pandemic.

Dr Massimo Galli of Milan’s Sacco Hospital said that the infections being verified in these days result from before many of the containment measures went into effect March 11. He told SKY TG24 news channel that in his estimation the restrictions won’t be lifted any time soon.

“This is hard, but the numbers and facts say it,” Galli said.

His team at the Sacco Hospital has determined that the virus has been circulating in Italy since January 25-26 and that it took almost a month for it to become recognized, around February 20-21. That puts Italy as of March 3 at the same place Wuhan, China was on January 25, he said, noting that China is only coming out of tight restrictions now, two months later.

How did coronavirus cases emerge in Italy?

Italy first moved to prevent the virus from arriving in the country by signing an order January 31 shutting down flights to and from China. A day earlier, authorities confirmed that a pair of tourists from Wuhan had tested positive in Rome. Both have since recovered.

But it wasn’t until February 21 that the first case of locally transmitted COVID-19 was confirmed, in the town of Codogno, southeast of Milan. The town and 10 others, with a total population of 50,000, were immediately isolated.

The government on February 22 created the first red zones in the 11 Lombardy towns and the town of Vo’ Eugeneo near Padova, with soldiers setting up cordons around the area and residents permitted to leave their homes only for essential activities like shopping. Industrial production was stopped, with rare exception.

The next day, February 23, the governors of Lombardy and neighbouring Veneto, where Padua is located, shut down museums, cinemas and theatres. But stores remained open as did restaurants and, until 6 pm bars. The closures emptied city centres but appeared to have less impact inhibiting activity in neighbourhoods, suburbs or small towns. Fitness routines moved from closed gyms to outdoor parks. The last two days of Carnival in Venice were cancelled, emptying the city of tourists. Schools and universities were closed in much of the north.

By the end of that week, the one-meter distance rule was set for shops and restaurants -- but that was not universally observed. Early the next week, people over 75 years of age were advised to stay at home. Schools were closed until March 15 in all of Italy -- later extended until April 3. Non-urgent court trials were suspended.

With cases still multiplying exponentially, the government on March 8 signed measures extending containment zones to all of Lombardy and 14 provinces in the other northern regions affecting a quarter of the population. Under the measures, people could leave their immediate areas only for work, health care or activities of strict necessity, like shopping

When Italian media reported that the closures were imminent, thousands of people jammed trains to get back to homes outside of the new red-zones — a mass movement that virologists have said helped further spread the contagion.

Just a day later, on March 9, the government extended the lockdown to the entire country. But enforcement was still a matter of interpretation. The mayor of Verona closed parks, seeing too much movement, while Florence's mayor seemed to condone an outside jog. Dog walking remained a valid motivation, but videos popped up on social media of Italians with fake dogs, shaggy stuffed animals on the end of stiff leashes.

Two days later, on March 11, all commercial activities except for those providing necessities were closed.

From March 11-15, the interior ministry reported 6,65,480 people had been controlled, with 27,616 people cited.

On Sunday, Rome Police Chief Franco Gabrielli said that 80 people had been cited a day earlier -- including for shopping 10 kilometers (six miles) from home, travelling 15 kilometres ( about nine miles) to a doctor’s appointment and claiming medical reasons for being out for a walk but lacking a doctor’s certification.

In Milan, the capital of Lombardy. which is by far Italy’s worst-hit region, regional health officials declared themselves moderately optimistic after day-to-day increases of both positive test results and of hospitalizations of new patients with COVID-19 were smaller. But they expressed renewed worry about the urgent need for additional intensive care beds.

March 24

A sharp rise in its coronavirus death toll

Italy reported a sharp rise in its coronavirus death toll on Tuesday, with 743 more victims, breaking a two-day trend that had fuelled hopes the epidemic may be on the wane.

Three weeks into national lockdown, Italy’s daily bulletin about its COVID-19 outbreak added thousands of more cases, pushing the nation’s overall total to more than 69,000.The daily toll was the second-highest recorded in Italy since the crisis began, but the civil protection agency said that while the number of new cases was up on Monday's figure, the infection rate was slowing.

After two straight days of day-to-day increases in new cases that had seen lower numbers, authorities on Tuesday said there were 5,249 new cases.

A day earlier, new cases in a 24-hour period had totalled some 460 fewer. For two days running, the percentage of day-to-day increase in caseload stands at 8%. Health authorities have cautioned that it's too soon to say if Italy is about to see a peak in the outbreak.

The daily toll was the second-highest recorded in Italy since the crisis began, but the civil protection agency said that while the number of new cases was up on Monday's figure, the infection rate was slowing.

Three weeks into national lockdown, Italy’s daily bulletin about its COVID-19 outbreak added thousands of more cases, pushing the nation’s overall total to more than 69,000.

After two straight days of day-to-day increases in new cases that had seen lower numbers, authorities on Tuesday said there were 5,249 new cases.

A day earlier, new cases in a 24-hour period had totalled some 460 fewer. For two days running, the percentage of day-to-day increase in caseload stands at 8%. Health authorities have cautioned that it's too soon to say if Italy is about to see a peak in the outbreak.

March 23

Italy's day-to-day positive COVID-19 cases drop

Italy has been anxious to see the day-to-day figures for new cases and deaths go down as its health system struggles under the weight of the world's largest COVID-19 outbreak outside of China.

Data released by Italy's Civil Protection agency on Monday showed 4,789 new cases from a day earlier, nearly 700 fewer than the day-to-day increase reported Sunday.

Italy has been anxious to see the day-to-day figures for new cases and deaths go down as its health system struggles under the weight of the world's largest COVID-19 outbreak outside of China. The number of deaths also did not rise by as much. There were just over 600 registered on Monday compared to 651 on Sunday.

Health authorities have said it will be a few more days before they will know if Italy is at the beginning of a positive trend. As of Monday, Italy had a total of 59,138 virus cases compared to China's 81,496.

A top government health official, Silvio Brusaferro, resisted being too optimistic, saying that the improvements registered Monday were due to actions taken at the beginning of the month, not in recent days.

‘’We need more consecutive results to confirm the trend, to be more certain that we are in a favorable situation,” Brusaferro said.

March 22

Italy announces 651 deaths

Italy's world-topping toll from the coronavirus pandemic approached 5,500 on Sunday after the Mediterranean country reported another 651 deaths.

The latest daily toll was smaller than Saturday's record 793 fatalities but still the second-highest registered during Italy's month-long crisis.

The number of new infections rose by 10.4 per cent to 59,138.Italy's death toll now stands at 5,47

March 21

Italy reports 793 COVID-19 fatalities, hits one-day record

Italy’s grim tally of coronavirus cases and deaths has continued to soar, with officials announcing new day-to-day highs: 793 dead and 6,557 cases.

The country, the heart of western Europe’s rampaging outbreak, now counts 53,578 known cases. More than 60 percent of the latest deaths occurred in the northern region of Lombardy, whose hospitals have been reeling under a staggering caseload that has left intensive care beds hard to find and respirators in dire supply. The new increases come nearly two weeks into a national lock-down in a desperate bid to contain the spread of the virus.

Why Italy? The factors behind a coronavirus disaster

The coronavirus pandemic, which has infected more than 287,000 people and killed more than 11,900. The COVID-19 illness causes mild or moderate symptoms in most people, but severe symptoms are more likely in the elderly or those with existing health problems. More than 89,800 people have recovered so far, mostly in China.

Why Italy? Loads of people have been wondering why the beautiful Mediterranean country has become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

But other countries will want to examine each of these factors and address them through various preventive measures in their bids to avoid becoming the next Italy.None of the answers alone explain why the nation of 60 million accounts for over a third of the nearly 11,500 deaths officially reported across the 7.7-billion strong world.

The median age of the overall population was 45.4 last year -- greater than anywhere else in Europe.One of the first factors almost everyone who looks at the figures points to is Italians' average age. It is high.

It is also seven years higher than the median age in China and slightly above that of South Korea.

Figures released on Friday showed the age of Italians dying of COVID-19 averaging out at 78.5.

Almost 99 percent of them were also suffering from at least one pre-existing condition or ailment.

Italy's mortality rate among those infected with the virus is thus a relatively high 8.6 percent.

"COVID-19 fatalities are hitting older age groups hard," University of Oxford professor Jennifer Dowd noted on Twitter.

"Countries with older populations will need to take more aggressive protective measures to stay below the threshold of critical cases that outstrip health system capacities," Dowd said.

Yet Japan's median age of 47.3 makes it an even older nation than Italy -- and it has just 35 officially registered deaths. So age is clearly not the only factor.

Some scientists think that it could really have been almost any other country after China.

"I think the question of 'Why Italy?' is the most important question and it has a simple answer: No reason at all," Yascha Mounk of Johns Hopkins University told Canada's CBC television.

"The only thing that makes Italy different is that the first couple of (locally-transmitted) cases arrived in Italy about 10 days before they arrived in Germany, the United States or Canada."

More than 4,000 people have died in Italy in the month since a 78-year-old builder from the Lombardy region of Milan became the first known European fatality of COVID-19.

European nations such as Spain and France are now following Italy's trajectory and could theoretically have as many deaths and infections in a few weeks.

"If other countries are not going to react in exactly the right way, they are going to become Italy," said Mounk.

The grim reality learned across Italy's devastated north is that diseases start spreading much faster once the healthcare system reaches its saturation point.

Doctors have to start making life and death decisions about whom they help first -- and why -- when they run out of equipment such as respirators and even beds.

"Sometimes you have to weigh the chances of success against the patient's condition," Brescia hospital's emergency unit head Paolo Terragnoli told AFP this week.

"We try to do our best for everyone, while doing an extra something for those who have better chances." Old and frail patients who are turned away are extremely contagious and -- tragically but realistically -- fated to die.

One of the Italian government's gravest fears is that the virus will start spreading to Italy's much poorer and far less equipped south.

The world has suddenly realised that it does not have enough test kits to screen for COVID-19.

Nations such as Italy dealt with this problem by only testing those who already exhibited symptoms such as a fever and a dry cough.

South Korea had the kits and the means to conduct more than 10,000 tests a day.

Germany followed a similar model and its death rate began to drop once even the mild COVID-19 infections began being counted.

This partially explains both why Italy's mortality rate is so high and why COVID-19 was contained faster in some other countries.

Harvard University professor Michael Mina said that 1,00,000 tests per day "might be optimal" for a country such as the United States.

AP