US-Iran standoff and India

The immediate cause of this ignition of tension was the death of Major General Qassem Suleimani, Commander of IRGC and Abu Muhadi Al Muhandis, Commander of Popular Mobilisation Force in a US drone strike near Baghdad Airport. By Mr J K Tripathi, a former diplomat.

Hyderabad: The New Year has begun with escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The standoff between the USA and Iran, building since Donald trump’s declaration in May 2018 to rescind the nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration between the two countries has now presented a strong possibility of further flaring up into a full-blown war.

The immediate cause of this ignition of tension was the death of Major General Qassem Suleimani, Commander of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) and Abu Muhadi Al Muhandis, Commander of Popular Mobilisation Force in a US drone strike near Baghdad Airport.

Iranian forces have vowed to take revenge for the death of their two most competent military leaders. Trump, on the other hand, has declared that further action against Iran would be to end and not to begin a war with Iran.

Tension had been brewing between the two countries since the Islamic revolution in Iran in1979 which saw the toppling of the government of Shah Reza Pehelvi, a staunch ally of the USA. The USA immediately snapped diplomatic ties with Iran and since then the US interests in Iran are being protected by the Embassy of Pakistan in Tehran.

The deteriorating relations saw a nadir in 1995 when the USA put a trade embargo against the Shia Iran. Another potential reason behind the souring of relations was that most Sunni GCC countries under the leadership of Saudi Arabia (a close ally of USA) did not want oil-rich Iran to compete with it in the region.

US being the biggest oil importer from Saudi Arabia at that time and the latter being the biggest arms importer from the US, it suited the dominant Jewish business lobby to keep Iran at bay. However, in 2015, Barak Obama entered into a nuclear deal with Iran which obligated Iran to substantially reduce its nuclear fuel production and processing facilities under strict periodical inspection by the International Atomic Energy Authority.

US president was also to periodically certify that Iran was fulfilling its obligations. However, after certifying for about one year, Trump who had vowed during his election campaign to end this disastrous and worst deal forever pulled out of it despite severe criticism by the EU, France, Russia, China, UK, and Germany. The excuse was that, based on a presentation made by the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, there were credible inputs that Iran had clandestinely gone back from its commitments under the deal.

Iran naturally got irked and reacted. One action led to another and now we have more than 18,000 US soldiers in the Gulf in name of protection of the region from Iran.

How does or will the situation in the Gulf affect India in case the tension escalates further to a war. The possibility of a full-fledged war involving the US in the region is remote. The US has still not been able to fully pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan nor has it been able to resolve the nuclear issue with North Korea or trade issues with China.

In such a situation, no sane US leader will afford to open a new front. But if the war happens, the movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifeline of oil from the Gulf, will be jeopardized resulting in a steep rise in oil prices. This has already started even without the war. Our economy will be severely hit with a spiral effect.

The future of around four million Indians working in the Gulf will also be in danger affecting the inwards forex remittances. There might also be a huge influx of these workers burdening our tattering economy further.

What should we do in such a scary scenario? Our options are limited-we must ensure that without taking sides, we should work for an amicable solution. While India is one of the eight countries that have urged both sides for restraint, India is perhaps in a better position than others to get actively involved to diffuse the tension.

We have strategic relations with the USA and civilizational relations with Iran which have still not soured despite our proximity with USA, Iran’s Bete Noir. With the rapid growth of Modi’s international stature and a seasoned and internationally acclaimed diplomat S. Jai Shankar (who recently even visited Iran) as the minister of external affairs, it is high time to try our mediation skills for safeguarding our economic interests.

The two sides will most likely listen to if not agree with us. Simultaneously, to ensure an uninterrupted supply of crude, we must explore other viable options. Though Venezuela, another big producer of oil, is also under the US sanctions, we can explore the possibility of increasing our intake from Nigeria, Brazil or even from Angola.

More emphasis can also be given to the rapid increase of solar power production and other possible replacements of oil to partly cushion the impact of the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.