Geneva (Switzerland):Above average temperatures are expected in many parts of the globe in the next few months, even without the presence of a warming El Niño event, the United Nation's World Meteorological Organization said in a release on Monday.
The UN agency published its latest update on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon, which involves fluctuations of ocean surface temperatures, is linked to natural hazards such as heavy rains, floods, and drought among others, and has a warming influence on global temperatures.
WMO predicted a 60 per cent chance of ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions continuing during between March and May this year. The chances for an El Niño developing were placed at 35 per cent.
During the same period, it also predicted a five per cent chance for La Niña, a phenomenon which has the opposite effect of the El Niño.
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For the period between June and August, the agency predicted 55 per cent chance for ENSO-neutral, and 20-25 per cent for both El Niño and La Niña.
Probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature for March-May The agency, however, explained that El Niño and La Niña are not the only naturally occurring phenomena that affect global climate patterns.
WMO has therefore introduced a new Global Seasonal Climate Update, currently in a trial phase, which factors in other climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the release said.
Probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for March-May The Global Seasonal Climate Update said that above average sea surface temperatures are likely across sizeable portions of the globe, both in the tropics and extra-tropics. As a result, the forecast for March-May 2020 leans towards above-normal land temperature, particularly at tropical latitudes.
The global warming trend also contributes to the above-average sea surface temperature and air temperature forecast, it said.
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"Even ENSO neutral months are warmer than in the past, as air and sea surface temperatures and ocean heat have increased due to climate change. With more than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases going into the ocean, ocean heat content is at record levels," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas was quoted.
Above normal precipitation is expected just north of the equator in the central tropical Pacific and southwestern Indian Ocean extending into eastern equatorial Africa. Elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation extend over much of the rest of the western tropical and extratropical Pacific. Below-normal precipitation is also likely for northern South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and southern Africa, according to WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update.
WMO Global Seasonal Climate Updates are based on climate model predictions around the world from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts.
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